Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Equity Capital Markets

Comforia Residential REIT / Equity Capital Markets

<p>We have a second JREIT Offering within the first two trading days of the year! </p><p>A few weeks ago, in my insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-reit-offering-primer-get-ready-for-offering-season-2021" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46416" rel="noopener">J-REIT Offering Primer: Get Ready for Offering Season 2021</a> I discussed how January and February will be busy months for JREIT Offerings and I highlighted that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comforia-residential-reit-in" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8200:1" rel="noopener">Comforia Residential Reit (3282 JP)</a> ("CRR") could be one of earliest candidates to launch an offering in 2021. </p><blockquote>
<strong>SPECIAL MENTION - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comforia-residential-reit-in" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8200:1" rel="noopener">Comforia Residential Reit (3282 JP)</a>: </strong>This J-REIT has announced an equity offering in early-Jan in every year since 2014 and I expect them to be one of the earliest candidates to launch an equity offering in 2021. </blockquote><p>Today after market-close, CRR announced a <a href="https://www.comforia-reit.co.jp/file/en-news-17c37663552ef1c7dc6da5194b51b8cbd7d3108f.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">follow-on equity offering</a> to partially fund their <a href="https://www.comforia-reit.co.jp/file/en-news-4efe88d4066425a0c98e8096ed7d18e04811c842.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">acquisition of three residential properties</a>. </p><p>The primary offering quantity is 20,360 units and the over-allotment quantity is 3,650 units. The size of the offering could be around ¥5.7bn (~US$55mn). </p><p>The Offer Price will be determined between the 13th of January and 18th of January (typically it has been the first day of this window for most JREIT offerings) and the two business days after the price determination day (pricing date) will be the application period.</p><p><em>More below the fold.</em></p>

We have a second JREIT Offering within the first two trading days of the year! A few weeks ago, in my insight J-REIT Offering Primer: Get Ready for Offering Season 2021 I discussed how January and February will be busy months for JREIT Offerings and I highlighted that Comforia Residential Reit (3282 JP) ("CRR") could be one of earliest candidates to launch an offering in 2021. 
SPECIAL MENTION - Comforia Residential Reit (3282 JP): This J-REIT has announced an equity offering in early-Jan in every year since 2014 and I expect them to be one of the earliest candidates to launch an equity offering in 2021. Today after market-close, CRR announced a follow-on equity offering to partially fund their acquisition of three residential properties. The primary offering quantity is 20,360 units and the over-allotment quantity is 3,650 units. The size of the offering could be around ¥5.7bn (~US$55mn). The Offer Price will be determined between the 13th of January and 18th of January (typically it has been the first day of this window for most JREIT offerings) and the two business days after the price determination day (pricing date) will be the application period.More below the fold.

JREIT Offering: Comforia Residential Reit (3282 JP)  - Take It (Vs Comps)

Event-Driven

<p>In 2020, we have so far witnessed 15 follow-on JREIT offerings cumulatively raising JPY463bn (~US$4.5bn). This has been something of a weak year, understandable because of the covid-19 crisis which hit equity market and JREIT prices in March, and keeping them soft for months afterwards.</p>
<p>Historically, January and February are the busiest months, for a variety of reasons.</p>
<p>From 2015-2020, on average, there have been ~7 offerings from the top 40 JREITs announced within the first two months of the calendar year accounting for roughly a third of the total number of offerings in each year during that period. </p>
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Source: Quiddity, Capital IQ (Data)</div>
In this insight, we take a look at the prospective candidates who are most likely to launch follow-on equity offerings near-term, and we look at the performance characteristics of J-REIT follow-on offerings and the likelihood of profit from participating in the event.</section>

In 2020, we have so far witnessed 15 follow-on JREIT offerings cumulatively raising JPY463bn (~US$4.5bn). This has been something of a weak year, understandable because of the covid-19 crisis which hit equity market and JREIT prices in March, and keeping them soft for months afterwards.
Historically, January and February are the busiest months, for a variety of reasons.
From 2015-2020, on average, there have been ~7 offerings from the top 40 JREITs announced within the first two months of the calendar year accounting for roughly a third of the total number of offerings in each year during that period. 









Source: Quiddity, Capital IQ (Data)
In this insight, we take a look at the prospective candidates who are most likely to launch follow-on equity offerings near-term, and we look at the performance characteristics of J-REIT follow-on offerings and the likelihood of profit from participating in the event.

J-REIT Offering Primer: Get Ready for Offering Season 2021

Nippon Accommodations Fund / Equity Capital Markets

<p>Tokyo-based Residential JREIT <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-accommodations-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4588:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Accommodations Fund (3226 JP)</a> ("NAF") announced a <a href="https://www.naf-r.jp/file/en-ir_news-38c56d05a6b895abb26f83905c055ce1a919574c.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">follow-on equity offering</a> today in order to fund their recent acquisition of four residential properties. </p><p>The primary offer quantity is 18,000 units and the over-allotment quantity is 950 units (upper limit). The size of this offering could be around ¥10.4bn (~US$100mn). </p><div><p>The Issue price will be decided between the 9th and 15th December (typically it has been the first day of this window for most JREIT offerings) and the application period will be the next two business days immediately after the pricing date. </p></div><div><p><em>More below the fold. </em></p></div>

Tokyo-based Residential JREIT Nippon Accommodations Fund (3226 JP) ("NAF") announced a follow-on equity offering today in order to fund their recent acquisition of four residential properties. The primary offer quantity is 18,000 units and the over-allotment quantity is 950 units (upper limit). The size of this offering could be around ¥10.4bn (~US$100mn). The Issue price will be decided between the 9th and 15th December (typically it has been the first day of this window for most JREIT offerings) and the application period will be the next two business days immediately after the pricing date. More below the fold. 

JREIT Offering: Nippon Accommodations Fund (3226 JP) - Take It

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Our outlook for global equity markets remains cautious and we expect additional weakness and consolidation, notwithstanding shorter-term countertrend rallies. In today’s report we provide a technical appraisal of major markets and highlight still attractive opportunities within: RETS, utilities and Health care.</p>

Our outlook for global equity markets remains cautious and we expect additional weakness and consolidation, notwithstanding shorter-term countertrend rallies. In today’s report we provide a technical appraisal of major markets and highlight still attractive opportunities within: RETS, utilities and Health care.

Global Markets Outlook: Maintain Defensive Posture

Japan

Comforia Residential REIT, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The company invests in leasing city apartments mainly in Tokyo area.

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Comforia Residential REIT (3282 JP)

JREIT Offering: Comforia Residential Reit (3282 JP) - Take It (Vs Comps)

As I predicted late last year, Comforia has come with an equity offering to fund the purchase of three properties. Buy the Offering as it has...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

J-REIT Offering Primer: Get Ready for Offering Season 2021

JREIT Follow-On Offerings - A Primer: January and February are the busiest times of the year for a variety of reasons and there are multiple...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

JREIT Offering: Nippon Accommodations Fund (3226 JP) - Take It

This is a $100mm REIT offering by a Residential J-REIT. It is worth buying. Buying precedent offers has resulted in positive relative returns 3 of...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Global Markets Outlook: Maintain Defensive Posture

Our outlook for global equity markets remains cautious and we expect additional weakness and consolidation, notwithstanding shorter-term...

Vermilion Research

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