Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Axis Bank’s acquisition of the Indian Citi consumer banking franchise makes strategic sense, bolstering its market share and scale especially in credit cards, wealth management and incrementally in core deposits</li>
<li>Strategy aside, Axis management’s execution needs to be totally on point to retain Citi clients and minimise the loss of key personnel given the acquisition’s seemingly full price tag</li>
<li>Axis Bank tops the year-to-date share performance among the large cap Indian bank peers; yet we believe that, with regard to the Citi deal, management still has to deliver</li>
</ul>


Axis Bank’s acquisition of the Indian Citi consumer banking franchise makes strategic sense, bolstering its market share and scale especially in credit cards, wealth management and incrementally in core deposits
Strategy aside, Axis management’s execution needs to be totally on point to retain Citi clients and minimise the loss of key personnel given the acquisition’s seemingly full price tag
Axis Bank tops the year-to-date share performance among the large cap Indian bank peers; yet we believe that, with regard to the Citi deal, management still has to deliver


Axis Bank-Citi India M&A; The Devil Is in the Client Retention and Integration Detail

Grupo Financiero Banorte SAB d / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Banorte delivered solid 1Q22 results; management is dangling the carrot of a multi-year shareholder dividend pay-out in 2022, implying a potential dividend yield of c7%</li>
<li>The potential catch is the real risk of Banorte acquiring the Citibanamex franchise, which could require capital and cash retention, thereby potentially curtailing the dividend prospects</li>
<li>In the event of Banorte acquiring Citibanamex, we believe that our calculations imply the likely risk of an equity cash call, which drives us to turn cautious on Banorte again</li>
</ul>


Banorte delivered solid 1Q22 results; management is dangling the carrot of a multi-year shareholder dividend pay-out in 2022, implying a potential dividend yield of c7%
The potential catch is the real risk of Banorte acquiring the Citibanamex franchise, which could require capital and cash retention, thereby potentially curtailing the dividend prospects
In the event of Banorte acquiring Citibanamex, we believe that our calculations imply the likely risk of an equity cash call, which drives us to turn cautious on Banorte again


Banorte – Potential M&A Raises Questions on Dividend Prospects

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Post announcement of the acquisition of Citibank India's consumer finance unit, Axis Bank has outperformed the market</li>
<li>However, Axis Bank shareholders need to be more cautious about whether the acquisition will deliver the returns that the market is expecting.</li>
<li>Competitors who either did not bid or lost out in the acquisition are focusing on poaching Citibank’s premier customers.</li>
</ul>


Post announcement of the acquisition of Citibank India's consumer finance unit, Axis Bank has outperformed the market
However, Axis Bank shareholders need to be more cautious about whether the acquisition will deliver the returns that the market is expecting.
Competitors who either did not bid or lost out in the acquisition are focusing on poaching Citibank’s premier customers.


Citi’s Well-Off Retail Clients May Not Travel Meekly to Axis Bank

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

<ul>
<li>
Axis Bank (AXSB.IN) [Axis] has become the frontrunner to purchase Citigroup’s (C.US) India [Citi India] consumer business; </li>
<li>The Citi India transaction would represent a negative adjusted net spread of 41 bp for Axis – intimating a negative return on investment of 1.0%; and </li>
<li>As many customers have hit the exit button, we have already witnessed Citi India's retail loan portfolio decline 6.7% YOY prior to FY 2022 COVID-19 protocols. </li>
</ul>



Axis Bank (AXSB.IN) [Axis] has become the frontrunner to purchase Citigroup’s (C.US) India [Citi India] consumer business; 
The Citi India transaction would represent a negative adjusted net spread of 41 bp for Axis – intimating a negative return on investment of 1.0%; and 
As many customers have hit the exit button, we have already witnessed Citi India's retail loan portfolio decline 6.7% YOY prior to FY 2022 COVID-19 protocols. 


<ul>
<li>Citi is to sell its Mexican retail and SME banking operations, which we call new Banamex; it is an attractive banking franchise that needs investment and a focus on costs</li>
<li>Based on peer group valuations, and on new Banamex’s disclosed parameters, we estimate that the disposal entity’s valuation range could range from USD7bn to USD10bn, and we identify potential bidders</li>
<li>We believe that our new Banamex valuation range emphasizes BanBajio’s attractive valuations, we stick with our positive view on mid-cap BanBajio; we believe that Banorte is fully valued</li>
</ul>


Citi is to sell its Mexican retail and SME banking operations, which we call new Banamex; it is an attractive banking franchise that needs investment and a focus on costs
Based on peer group valuations, and on new Banamex’s disclosed parameters, we estimate that the disposal entity’s valuation range could range from USD7bn to USD10bn, and we identify potential bidders
We believe that our new Banamex valuation range emphasizes BanBajio’s attractive valuations, we stick with our positive view on mid-cap BanBajio; we believe that Banorte is fully valued


Citi’s Mexican Exit; Our Thoughts on “new Banamex”

United States

Citigroup Inc. is a diversified financial services holding company that provides a broad range of financial services to consumer and corporate customers. The Company services include investment banking, retail brokerage, corporate banking, and cash management products and services. Citigroup serves customers globally.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Citigroup Inc (C US)

Axis Bank-Citi India M&A; The Devil Is in the Client Retention and Integration Detail

Axis Bank’s purchase of the Indian Citi consumer banking franchise makes strategic sense; yet execution needs to be on point to retain Citi...

Victor Galliano

Banorte – Potential M&A Raises Questions on Dividend Prospects

Banorte management is proposing a big dividend pay-out in 2022, but there's a potential catch if Banorte acquires Citibanamex; it could require...

Victor Galliano

Citi’s Well-Off Retail Clients May Not Travel Meekly to Axis Bank

The acquisition will depend on the bulk of Citibank’s premier customers being retained by Axis Bank. Recent developments regarding the toxic work...

Hemindra Hazari

Axis Bank – Lost In The Citi

AXIS: Axis has become the frontrunner to purchase Citi India's consumer business. This deal would result in a negative ROI of 1.0% to Axis.

Thomas J. Monaco

Citi’s Mexican Exit; Our Thoughts on “new Banamex”

Citi sale of its Mexican commercial bank, new Banamex, will need the acquirer to control opex; in this report we estimate the valuation range &...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)