Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The December rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituents at 8%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>The largest passive outflows as a result of capping will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> due to their weight exceeding 8% in all three indices.</li>
<li>There are large funding outflows (in terms of days of ADV to trade) on quite a few Hong Kong property stocks as well as stocks from the financials sector.</li>
</ul>


The December rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituents at 8%. This will lead to large flows.
The largest passive outflows as a result of capping will be on Meituan (3690 HK) and Tencent (700 HK) due to their weight exceeding 8% in all three indices.
There are large funding outflows (in terms of days of ADV to trade) on quite a few Hong Kong property stocks as well as stocks from the financials sector.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: December Rebalance Flows Post Capping

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Loan Defaults and USD Bond Payments Set To Continue:  China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] magically made an 11th hour interest payment of USD 83.5 mn to bondholders on Friday, October 22, 2021 – escaping default by the skin of its teeth, just as its 30-day grace period with bondholders was about to end. While the market is worried about a China Huarong Asset Management (2799.HK) default crippling the country’s USD credit market, they too should understand that any bond default by Evergande likely roils this market as well; and* Worrisome Comments By  PBOC Governor Yi: The mainland Chinese government rarely comments on a single entity, which is why Governor Yi’s thoughts are alarming. “First, we’re going to try to prevent contagion to other real estate companies. Second, we’ll prevent contagion to other parts of the financial sector.” This self-inflicted wound will require a tourniquet to stop the bleeding; expect non-D-SIFI bank and insurer failures in mainland China.

*Loan Defaults and USD Bond Payments Set To Continue:  China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] magically made an 11th hour interest payment of USD 83.5 mn to bondholders on Friday, October 22, 2021 – escaping default by the skin of its teeth, just as its 30-day grace period with bondholders was about to end. While the market is worried about a China Huarong Asset Management (2799.HK) default crippling the country’s USD credit market, they too should understand that any bond default by Evergande likely roils this market as well; and* Worrisome Comments By  PBOC Governor Yi: The mainland Chinese government rarely comments on a single entity, which is why Governor Yi’s thoughts are alarming. “First, we’re going to try to prevent contagion to other real estate companies. Second, we’ll prevent contagion to other parts of the financial sector.” This self-inflicted wound will require a tourniquet to stop the bleeding; expect non-D-SIFI bank and insurer failures in mainland China.

China Evergrande Group – China’s Wrecking Ball

*It Keeps Getting Worse: Between China Evergrande Group’s (3333.HK) [Evergrande] operational and liquidity troubles, large property price discounts, the precipitous drop in the value of its non-property-related development business, and a more challenging industry outlook, we would expect that Evergrande’s corporate restructure to be riddled with challenges; and *Authorities Finally Stepping In: The China Financial Stability and Development Committee (CFSDC) has signed off on Evergrande’s proposal to renegotiate debt payment deadlines with banks and other creditors, after the company missed interest and principal payments on several loans and delayed payments to suppliers amid difficulties accessing new financing – signaling that Evergrande has been greenlighted to re-negotiate funding terms with creditors.

*It Keeps Getting Worse: Between China Evergrande Group’s (3333.HK) [Evergrande] operational and liquidity troubles, large property price discounts, the precipitous drop in the value of its non-property-related development business, and a more challenging industry outlook, we would expect that Evergrande’s corporate restructure to be riddled with challenges; and *Authorities Finally Stepping In: The China Financial Stability and Development Committee (CFSDC) has signed off on Evergrande’s proposal to renegotiate debt payment deadlines with banks and other creditors, after the company missed interest and principal payments on several loans and delayed payments to suppliers amid difficulties accessing new financing – signaling that Evergrande has been greenlighted to re-negotiate funding terms with creditors.

China Evergrande Group – Not Likely A Smooth Restructure

The upcoming rebalances for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> will be implemented at the close of trading on 3 September. The rebalance will use data from todays close to cap the stocks in the index at a maximum of 8% of the index weight.In this Insight, we show the flows after capping stocks using the close on 30 August. The final numbers will be marginally different based on todays closing prices.For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> there are 3 inclusions - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinyi-glass-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11940:1" rel="noopener">Xinyi Glass Holdings (868 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd-3388a037-4214-4997-b45d-520518cfdb57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a> and 1 exclusion - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-communications-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:659:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK)</a>.For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>, the inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK)</a> while the deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimao-property-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8375:1" rel="noopener">Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:159:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK)</a>.For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> there is one set of changes with Trip.com (9961 HK) / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/koolearn-technology-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27796:1" rel="noopener">Koolearn (1797 HK)</a>.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>'s weight in all 3 indices is higher than 8% following the increase in the number of index shares at the July monthly rebalance. The stock will have the largest passive selling due to capping back to 8%.Capping and float changes will lead to passive buying on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, while there will be passive selling on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank H (939 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a>.There will be selling on a lot of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> constituents due to funding flows.

The upcoming rebalances for the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) and Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) will be implemented at the close of trading on 3 September. The rebalance will use data from todays close to cap the stocks in the index at a maximum of 8% of the index weight.In this Insight, we show the flows after capping stocks using the close on 30 August. The final numbers will be marginally different based on todays closing prices.For the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) there are 3 inclusions - Xinyi Glass Holdings (868 HK), Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK) and China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) and 1 exclusion - Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK).For the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX), the inclusions are JD Logistics (2618 HK) and Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK) while the deletions are Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK) and Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK).For the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) there is one set of changes with Trip.com (9961 HK) / Trip.com (TCOM US) replacing Koolearn (1797 HK).Alibaba Group (9988 HK)'s weight in all 3 indices is higher than 8% following the increase in the number of index shares at the July monthly rebalance. The stock will have the largest passive selling due to capping back to 8%.Capping and float changes will lead to passive buying on Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK) and Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), while there will be passive selling on HSBC Holdings (5 HK), AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK), China Construction Bank H (939 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) and HKEX (388 HK).There will be selling on a lot of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) constituents due to funding flows.

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: September Rebalance Flows Post Capping

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 20 August. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 3 September.For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>, there are 2 inclusions and 2 exclusions.In line with our forecasts, the inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK)</a> while the deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimao-property-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8375:1" rel="noopener">Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:159:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK)</a>. One-way turnover is estimated at 6.82% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$4.84bn. Following an increase in the index shares and no change in the capping factor at the July monthly rebalance, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>'s weight will be capped at 8% leading to outflows from the stock.There are only 10 trading days to implementation of the changes.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK)</a> was a forecast inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> but was not expected to be included in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>. Passive trackers across both indices will need to buy over 3 days of ADV on the stock and the stock could open higher on Monday.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> is down 38% from its IPO price and the index inclusion could act as a support in the short term. Short selling commenced a few weeks back and shorts have piled in rapidly.

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 20 August. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 3 September.For the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX), there are 2 inclusions and 2 exclusions.In line with our forecasts, the inclusions are JD Logistics (2618 HK) and Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK) while the deletions are Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK) and Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK). One-way turnover is estimated at 6.82% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$4.84bn. Following an increase in the index shares and no change in the capping factor at the July monthly rebalance, Alibaba Group (9988 HK)'s weight will be capped at 8% leading to outflows from the stock.There are only 10 trading days to implementation of the changes.Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK) was a forecast inclusion in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) but was not expected to be included in the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). Passive trackers across both indices will need to buy over 3 days of ADV on the stock and the stock could open higher on Monday.JD Logistics (2618 HK) is down 38% from its IPO price and the index inclusion could act as a support in the short term. Short selling commenced a few weeks back and shorts have piled in rapidly.

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Li Ning's Double Inclusion; Alibaba Capping Leads to High Turnover

Hong Kong

CK Hutchison Holdings Limited holds all of the non-property businesses of the Cheung Kong Group and the Hutchison Group, including ports and related services, telecommunications, retail, infrastructure, energy, and movable assets leasing operations.

Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, focuses on motor vehicles, property investment and development, food retailing, health and beauty, home furnishings, engineering and construction, transport services, restaurants, luxury hotels, financial services, heavy equipment, mining, energy, and agribusiness.

Beijing Enterprises Holdings Ltd. is a diversified company.  The Company brews beer; distributes natural gas through pipelines; invests in, designs, constructs and operates water supply and wastewater treatment plants; operates toll roads; disposes of hazardous waste; and offers electronic payment systems.

NWS Holdings Limited operates businesses under three main divisions: Service, Infrastructure, and Ports. Its Service division comprises facilities, contracting, transport, financial, and environmental. The Infrastructure portfolio includes roads and bridges, energy, and water treatment and waste management. Its port division includes container handling, logistics, and warehousing.

Shanghai Industrial Holdings Limited is an investment holding company that focuses on three core businesses: infrastructure facilities, real estate and consumer products. SIHL invests in toll road projects, water-related business, property development, investment, hotel operation, the manufacturing and sale of cigarettes, packaging materials and printed products.

Shun Tak Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops, invests  and manages properties.  The Company also provides shipping and related travel services and engages in hotel operations and securities investments.

Chevalier International Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides building and engineering services.  The Company also trades motor vehicles and Information Technology (IT) and business machines.  In addition, Chevalier operates property, hotel and insurance business as well as provides IT services.

China State Construction International Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides building construction and civil engineering works services in Hong Kong.

BOC Aviation provides direct operating leasing of aircrafts to airlines. The Company offers a range services including structured finance, aircraft remarketing, direct operating leases, and technical services.

China Energy Engineering Group Co. Ltd. (CEEC) provides infrastructure construction and investment for hydroelectrical works. The Company also offers power engineering, electric power equipment, technology, and human resources. CEEC provides its services in China and internationally.

Samsung C&T Corporation conducts diversified business support services and resort operation activities. The Company offers a range of services in areas including clothing retail, construction, energy, real estate, food service, and resort accommodations. Samsung C&T also operates a resort with amusement rides, a zoo, water park, golf clubs, and restaurants.

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

Siemens Ltd. has its operations in various areas: in the transportation sector it delivers high speed trains, in the lighting sector it manufactures small light bulbs. In the healthcare sector Siemens executes complete solutions for hospitals, for the industry sector it builds airports as well as produces contracts & for the communication segment it provides public network to mobiles.

Carlisle Companies Incorporated manufactures and distributes construction materials, transportation products, and general industry products.  The Company manufactures a variety of products for the roofing, real estate, construction, trucking, food-service, aircraft manufacturing, lawn and garden, and other industries.

Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited is a multinational enterprise with a portfolio of businesses focused on the Asia-Pacific region. The Group's activities include financial services, supermarkets, consumer marketing, engineering and construction, automobile trading, insurance broking, property investment, and hotels.

SM Investments Corporation is an investment holding company. The Company operates retail business and develops shopping mall and other real estate property.  The Company also provides tourism services.

Koninklijke Philips NV is a health technology company focused on improving people's health across the health continuum from healthy living and prevention, to diagnosis, treatment, and home care. The Company offers products and services in diagnostic imaging, image-guided therapy, patient monitoring and health informatics, as well as in consumer health and home care.

Rheinmetall AG is an automotive, electronics, defense, and engineering group. The Company produces automotive pumps and components to supply air, reduce emissions, and supply fuel, pistons for gasoline and diesel vehicle and stationary engines, bearings for engines and other applications and aluminum engine blocks, and offers aftermarket service to engine repair shops.

Lifco AB operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides dental products, machinery and tools, sawmill equipment, contract manufacturing, vehicle interiors, and environmental technology. Lifco offers its products through a network of subsidiaries and partnerships worldwide.

Grupo Carso SAB de CV is a holding company with subsidiaries in the construction ,retail and industrial materials industries. The Company's products and services include: oil platform construction; shoping centers, industrial facilities and corporate buildings construction; highway construction; dam and aqueduct construction; steel tubes; and housing.

CITIC Limited operates in a range of business activities including financial services, resources and energy, manufacturing, real estate and infrastructure, engineering contracting and other businesses in China and overseas.

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Citic Ltd (267 HK)

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: December Rebalance Flows Post Capping

The Dec rebalance of the HK indices will use today's closing prices to cap the stocks at 8%. Meituan and Tencent will see large outflows due to...

Brian Freitas

China Evergrande Group – China’s Wrecking Ball

EVERGRANDE: Evergrande magically made an interest payment to bondholders, escaping default by the skin of its teeth. This self-inflicted wound...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Evergrande Group – Not Likely A Smooth Restructure

CHINA EVERGRANDE: Evergrande’s operational and liquidity troubles continue, and the CFSDC has signed off on Evergrande’s proposal to renegotiate...

Thomas J. Monaco

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: September Rebalance Flows Post Capping

There are some pretty large flows across the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH at the September rebalance due to name/float/capping changes. Impact on some...

Brian Freitas

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Li Ning's Double Inclusion; Alibaba Capping Leads to High Turnover

Li Ning and JD Logistics have been added to the HSCEI while Anhui Conch and Shimao Prop have been deleted. Alibaba's weight in the index will be...

Brian Freitas

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