APAC Investment Strategy, Animal Spirits Report, Quiddity Advisors

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

APAC Investment Strategy, Animal Spirits Report

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Fiscal "Trumpenomics" is an inflationary shock which elevates inflation expectations, treasury yields and the slope of the yield curve. The risk is the Fed abandons its "hot" policy and adopts more aggressive policy normalization.</li><li>The US Dollar is tracking inflation expectations upwards, anticipating a credible response from the Fed policy reaction function (i.e. a tightening) but near term the Dollar rally may be overdone.</li></ul><ul><li>We demonstrate that value stocks perform well with rising yields, which are underpinned by our inflation expectation thesis. In an APAC context, ASEAN is at risk and we downgrade the group to "underweight". </li><li>Animal Spirits downgrades EM to "neutral" based on US Dollar-EM divergence.</li><li>We have also upgraded Japan to "overweight" as the "Trumped up" US dollar and rising yield curve provide the missing earnings catalyst. </li><li>More detailed notes on Japan, ASEAN, and a country analysis recap are to follow in this series Fiscal “Trumpenomics”.</li></ul><ul><li>We suggest patience in making adjustments towards a more reflationary positioning as the pace of the US Dollar rally and the rise in government yields portends a pause or a possible correction in the "reflation" group is approaching.</li></ul>

Fiscal "Trumpenomics" is an inflationary shock which elevates inflation expectations, treasury yields and the slope of the yield curve. The risk is the Fed abandons its "hot" policy and adopts more aggressive policy normalization.The US Dollar is tracking inflation expectations upwards, anticipating a credible response from the Fed policy reaction function (i.e. a tightening) but near term the Dollar rally may be overdone.We demonstrate that value stocks perform well with rising yields, which are underpinned by our inflation expectation thesis. In an APAC context, ASEAN is at risk and we downgrade the group to "underweight". Animal Spirits downgrades EM to "neutral" based on US Dollar-EM divergence.We have also upgraded Japan to "overweight" as the "Trumped up" US dollar and rising yield curve provide the missing earnings catalyst. More detailed notes on Japan, ASEAN, and a country analysis recap are to follow in this series Fiscal “Trumpenomics”.We suggest patience in making adjustments towards a more reflationary positioning as the pace of the US Dollar rally and the rise in government yields portends a pause or a possible correction in the "reflation" group is approaching.

ANIMAL SPIRITS™: Fiscal Trumpenomics II: Value Stocks Boosted By Rising Yields & EM Gets a Timeout!

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

The world has entered the era of the Code War where every digital device, however small and innocuous, can be “weaponised” – as the recent Dyn cyber-attack aptly illustrated – to send “rogue code” deep into the Internet's engine room to create mayhem. Even the spooks are scared.New technology cycles such as the Cloud, the Internet of Things, robotics and the latest social media fads all increase cyber risk.Below, we summarise the the changing nature of cyber threat and the changing nature of the technology sector's response. In the process, we identify some of the winners and losers for investors.

The world has entered the era of the Code War where every digital device, however small and innocuous, can be “weaponised” – as the recent Dyn cyber-attack aptly illustrated – to send “rogue code” deep into the Internet's engine room to create mayhem. Even the spooks are scared.New technology cycles such as the Cloud, the Internet of Things, robotics and the latest social media fads all increase cyber risk.Below, we summarise the the changing nature of cyber threat and the changing nature of the technology sector's response. In the process, we identify some of the winners and losers for investors.

Cybersecurity as an Investment Theme (Part 1)

Independent, global risk consultancy, Control Risks

Aparajita Verma

Independent, global risk consultancy

Control Risks

Control Risks is an independent, global risk consultancy specialising in helping organisations manage political, integrity and security risks in complex and hostile environments. We support clients by providing strategic consultancy, expert analysis and in-depth investigations, handling sensitive political issues and providing practical on-the-ground protection and support.

Our unique combination of services, geographical reach and the trust our clients place in us ensure we can help them to effectively solve their problems and realise new opportunities across the world.

Donald Trump has been elected as the next US president. However, unlike Clinton, Trump did not comprehensively outline his domestic and foreign policies. As a result, there is considerable uncertainty about which policies he will pursue in office, and how aggressively he will do so. Based on the campaign, and the key issues in the global landscape, this note outlines six things companies need to know in the wake of the historic 2016 US presidential election.

Donald Trump has been elected as the next US president. However, unlike Clinton, Trump did not comprehensively outline his domestic and foreign policies. As a result, there is considerable uncertainty about which policies he will pursue in office, and how aggressively he will do so. Based on the campaign, and the key issues in the global landscape, this note outlines six things companies need to know in the wake of the historic 2016 US presidential election.

US Election Global Implications: Top Six Issues

On Asia, as with many other topics, US president-elect Donald Trump’s campaign rhetoric tackled taboo subjects and hinted at major departures from fundamental policies and principles. The region now waits nervously to find out where and to what degree that rhetoric becomes policy.

On Asia, as with many other topics, US president-elect Donald Trump’s campaign rhetoric tackled taboo subjects and hinted at major departures from fundamental policies and principles. The region now waits nervously to find out where and to what degree that rhetoric becomes policy.

The Trump Presidency: Implications for Asia

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

We publish an update on our Maritime Model Portfolio. Our earlier model portfolio updates can be found at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/maritime-model-portfolio-adding-risk-with-upgrade-on-dry-bulk-and-downgrade-on-tanker-shipping" target="_blank">https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/maritime-model-portfolio-adding-risk-with-upgrade-on-dry-bulk-and-downgrade-on-tanker-shipping</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dmer-launches-model-stock-portfolio-for-the-maritime-sector" target="_blank">https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dmer-launches-model-stock-portfolio-for-the-maritime-sector</a>The Timeline<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/015/357/original/mmp1.JPG?1477455972" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="15357"></figure>Model portfolio – revisiting our tactical idea, How has it panned out so far?<ul><li>
Our selected stocks from the Dry Bulk sector generated a return of 8.7% (28%…</li></ul>

We publish an update on our Maritime Model Portfolio. Our earlier model portfolio updates can be found at https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/maritime-model-portfolio-adding-risk-with-upgrade-on-dry-bulk-and-downgrade-on-tanker-shipping &amp; https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dmer-launches-model-stock-portfolio-for-the-maritime-sectorThe TimelineModel portfolio – revisiting our tactical idea, How has it panned out so far?
Our selected stocks from the Dry Bulk sector generated a return of 8.7% (28%…

Maritime Model Portfolio - Early Call on Dry Bulk Stocks Offsets Initial Losses

Hong Kong

CITIC Limited operates in a range of business activities including financial services, resources and energy, manufacturing, real estate and infrastructure, engineering contracting and other businesses in China and overseas.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Citic Ltd (267 HK)

ANIMAL SPIRITS™: Fiscal Trumpenomics II: Value Stocks Boosted By Rising Yields & EM Gets a Timeout!

Fiscal "Trumpenomics" is an inflationary shock which elevates inflation expectations, treasury yields and the slope of the yield curve. The risk...

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

Cybersecurity as an Investment Theme (Part 1)

The world has entered the era of the Code War where every digital device, however small and innocuous, can be “weaponised” – as the recent Dyn...

CM Research

US Election Global Implications: Top Six Issues

Donald Trump has been elected as the next US president. However, unlike Clinton, Trump did not comprehensively outline his domestic and foreign...

Control Risks

The Trump Presidency: Implications for Asia

On Asia, as with many other topics, US president-elect Donald Trump’s campaign rhetoric tackled taboo subjects and hinted at major departures from...

Control Risks

Maritime Model Portfolio - Early Call on Dry Bulk Stocks Offsets Initial Losses

We publish an update on our Maritime Model Portfolio. Our earlier model portfolio updates can be found...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)