Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<ul>
<li>The Internet and Telecom bubble. Lessons in leverage, rates, and a smattering of fraud. What can we learn from that period to compare it to the current AI infrastructure build?</li>
<li>It’s time for a history piece. I didn’t touch the internet and telecom bubbles in my last history piece, but I wanted to save an entire piece for it.</li>
<li>I think it’s the best analogy for the historic boom in AI and infrastructure. Let’s see if there are lessons to learn from the past.</li>
</ul>









The Internet and Telecom bubble. Lessons in leverage, rates, and a smattering of fraud. What can we learn from that period to compare it to the current AI infrastructure build?
It’s time for a history piece. I didn’t touch the internet and telecom bubbles in my last history piece, but I wanted to save an entire piece for it.
I think it’s the best analogy for the historic boom in AI and infrastructure. Let’s see if there are lessons to learn from the past.


Lessons from History: The Rise and Fall of the Telecom Bubble

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elastic-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27526:1" rel="noopener">Elastic NV (ESTC US)</a>  has grown its ARR from ~$207 million as of Jul-18 to ~$760 million today and may become a multi-billion dollar unicorn in the future.  </li>
<li>We like the subscription-based freemium business model, strong net expansion rate, and acceleration in revenue growth of Elastic Cloud business, which currently represents ~33% of total revenue. </li>
<li>Elastic Search is one of the most popular search engines globally, and the company’s products have been downloaded more than 350 million times since 2013. </li>
</ul>



Elastic NV (ESTC US)  has grown its ARR from ~$207 million as of Jul-18 to ~$760 million today and may become a multi-billion dollar unicorn in the future.  
We like the subscription-based freemium business model, strong net expansion rate, and acceleration in revenue growth of Elastic Cloud business, which currently represents ~33% of total revenue. 
Elastic Search is one of the most popular search engines globally, and the company’s products have been downloaded more than 350 million times since 2013. 


Elastic: High-Profile Search Company With Attractive Fundamentals

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat (ISAT IJ)</a> remains optimistic about the outlook for its core mobile business as it expands into rural areas and simultaneously increases ARPUs, with the growing use of AI tools. </li>
<li>The company also seeks to become an AI Native Telco whilst also pursuing a separate AI business through its tie-up with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a>, and building a data centre edge through BDx.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ)</a> is also optimistic about its home broadband business projecting 2m subscribers by 2028. Valuations remain attractive relative to peers, especially given ISAT's growth outlook. </li>
</ul>



Indosat (ISAT IJ) remains optimistic about the outlook for its core mobile business as it expands into rural areas and simultaneously increases ARPUs, with the growing use of AI tools. 
The company also seeks to become an AI Native Telco whilst also pursuing a separate AI business through its tie-up with NVIDIA, and building a data centre edge through BDx.

Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ) is also optimistic about its home broadband business projecting 2m subscribers by 2028. Valuations remain attractive relative to peers, especially given ISAT's growth outlook. 


Indosat (ISAT IJ) - Streaming Ahead with AI

<ul>
<li>Beijing-Based 4Paradigm shares have underperformed the Hang Seng Index (+4.3%) in 2024 with shares down ~20% year-to-date. IPO investors are down ~28%.</li>
<li>I expect near-term selling pressure on the stock as IPO lockup ends in September and at least 265M shares will be available for sale by the end of next month.</li>
<li>4Paradigm has made considerable progress and with a clear profitability trajectory, the stock looks undervalued relative to peers in Mainland China and worldwide.</li>
</ul>


Beijing-Based 4Paradigm shares have underperformed the Hang Seng Index (+4.3%) in 2024 with shares down ~20% year-to-date. IPO investors are down ~28%.
I expect near-term selling pressure on the stock as IPO lockup ends in September and at least 265M shares will be available for sale by the end of next month.
4Paradigm has made considerable progress and with a clear profitability trajectory, the stock looks undervalued relative to peers in Mainland China and worldwide.


4Paradigm: Near-Term Selling Pressure May Persist As IPO Lockup Ends Next Month

<ul>
<li>This week will be a lightning-fast one. I need to cover a lot, so I’ll give high-level summaries instead of going deep unless necessary. I will be honest - it’s a bit scuffed, but if I don’t put it out, I’ll get further behind on semiconductor earnings.</li>
<li>On semiconductor beat on Chinese industrial strength. It looks cheap.</li>
<li>Lattice is likely stuffing the channel, and the divergence between AMD’s embedded and Lattice means their channel is worse off. Amkor saw real weakness in industrial, and that’s what made the guide miss. Arista had a clean beat; I think they are sandbagging forward revenue.</li>
</ul>


This week will be a lightning-fast one. I need to cover a lot, so I’ll give high-level summaries instead of going deep unless necessary. I will be honest - it’s a bit scuffed, but if I don’t put it out, I’ll get further behind on semiconductor earnings.
On semiconductor beat on Chinese industrial strength. It looks cheap.
Lattice is likely stuffing the channel, and the divergence between AMD’s embedded and Lattice means their channel is worse off. Amkor saw real weakness in industrial, and that’s what made the guide miss. Arista had a clean beat; I think they are sandbagging forward revenue.


Earnings: ON, LSCC, RMBS, AMKR, ANET, AMD

United States

Cisco Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells Internet Protocol (IP)-based networking and other products related to the communications and information technology (IT) industry and provide services associated with these products and their use. The Company provides products for transporting data, voice, and video within buildings, across campuses, and globally.

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Cisco Systems (CSCO US)

Lessons from History: The Rise and Fall of the Telecom Bubble

The Internet and Telecom bubble. Lessons in leverage, rates, and a smattering of fraud. What can we learn from that period to compare it to the...

Fabricated Knowledge

Elastic: High-Profile Search Company With Attractive Fundamentals

Elastic is a high-profile search technology company and we believe current valuations look attractive for long-term investors

Andrei Zakharov

Indosat (ISAT IJ) - Streaming Ahead with AI

Indosat remains optimistic about the outlook for its core mobile business as it expands into rural areas and simultaneously increases ARPUs, with...

Angus Mackintosh

4Paradigm: Near-Term Selling Pressure May Persist As IPO Lockup Ends Next Month

4Paradigm, a Beijing-based enterprise AI company, completed its initial public offering in 2023. Pre-IPO investors and shareholders may sell the...

Andrei Zakharov

Earnings: ON, LSCC, RMBS, AMKR, ANET, AMD

This week will be a lightning-fast one. I need to cover a lot, so I’ll give high-level summaries instead of going deep unless necessary. I will be...

Fabricated Knowledge

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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