ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Indonesia's election race is about to begin with the Presidential candidates announcing running mates on 26th October and with campaigns that could boost consumer demand. </li>
<li>The Indonesian economy should see GDP growth above 5% in 2023 and 2024, with inflation already under control at 2.28% in September. FDI remains positive although may slow before elections. </li>
<li>We explore the prospects for different sectors with a positive view on banks, retail, consumer staples, property, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International</a> as a market proxy, with some opportunities in tech.</li>
</ul>


Indonesia's election race is about to begin with the Presidential candidates announcing running mates on 26th October and with campaigns that could boost consumer demand. 
The Indonesian economy should see GDP growth above 5% in 2023 and 2024, with inflation already under control at 2.28% in September. FDI remains positive although may slow before elections. 
We explore the prospects for different sectors with a positive view on banks, retail, consumer staples, property, and Astra International as a market proxy, with some opportunities in tech.


Indonesian Strategy - Election Race Hots Up Amidst Profits Recovery

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-industry-trading-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ)</a> remains a core proxy for the under-penetration of dairy products in Indonesia, which stands at less than half of Thailand in terms of per capita consumption.</li>
<li>Ultrajaya has seen a strong rebound in sales this year for its UHT milk sales but material pressure persisted in 1H2023 but will abate in 2H2023 improving margins.  </li>
<li>Its carton tea products are seeing a strong rebound and a new distribution warehouse in Cikarang will improve distribution. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-industry-trading-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya</a>'s growth trajectory is resuming and valuations are attractive. </li>
</ul>



Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) remains a core proxy for the under-penetration of dairy products in Indonesia, which stands at less than half of Thailand in terms of per capita consumption.
Ultrajaya has seen a strong rebound in sales this year for its UHT milk sales but material pressure persisted in 1H2023 but will abate in 2H2023 improving margins.  
Its carton tea products are seeing a strong rebound and a new distribution warehouse in Cikarang will improve distribution. Ultrajaya's growth trajectory is resuming and valuations are attractive. 


Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) - Back on Track with Dairy and Tea

<ul>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.</li>
<li>The past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cisarua-mountain-dairy-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34999:1" rel="noopener">Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sheng-siong-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6824:1" rel="noopener">Sheng Siong (SSG SP)</a>, and  Cinema XXI IPO.  </li>
<li>There were also insights on SCG Decor IPO, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charoen-pokphand-indonesia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10889:1" rel="noopener">Charoen Pokphand Indonesia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/malindo-feedmill-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9606:1" rel="noopener">Malindo Feedmill</a>, Halodoc and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a>, plus a sector insight on South-East Asia Plantations.</li>
</ul>


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
The past week saw insights on Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ), Sheng Siong (SSG SP), and  Cinema XXI IPO.  
There were also insights on SCG Decor IPO, Charoen Pokphand Indonesia, Malindo Feedmill, Halodoc and Astra International (ASII IJ), plus a sector insight on South-East Asia Plantations.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Cimory's Growth, Cinema XXI, and Asian Plantations

Cisarua Mountain Dairy / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cisarua-mountain-dairy-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34999:1" rel="noopener">Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ)</a> remains one of the most interesting and dynamic staple players in Indonesia, with a leading position in yoghurt and growing strength in consumer foods. </li>
<li>CMRY continues to achieve strong top-line growth of +21% in 1H2023, with consumer foods driving growth and 50% of sales but we expect dairy to see better performance in 2H2023. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cisarua-mountain-dairy-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34999:1" rel="noopener">Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ)</a> continues to invest in marketing through digital channels, including TikTok. Valuations remain attractive relative to its growth prospects, with more than 20% 3-year EPS CAGR.</li>
</ul>



Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) remains one of the most interesting and dynamic staple players in Indonesia, with a leading position in yoghurt and growing strength in consumer foods. 
CMRY continues to achieve strong top-line growth of +21% in 1H2023, with consumer foods driving growth and 50% of sales but we expect dairy to see better performance in 2H2023. 

Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) continues to invest in marketing through digital channels, including TikTok. Valuations remain attractive relative to its growth prospects, with more than 20% 3-year EPS CAGR.


Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) - Yoghurt Sticks and Meatballs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This year's Jakarta Fair was a spectacle with large crowds, who were spending as well as enjoying all the discounted food on offer and viewing new products on show.</li>
<li>The highlights from the show were a plethora of 2W and 4W EVs, a notable presence from dairy players, and many financing options being offered by multi-finance and fintech players. </li>
<li>In the consumer sector, we like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ace-hardware-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12808:1" rel="noopener">Ace Hardware Indonesia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cisarua-mountain-dairy-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34999:1" rel="noopener">Cisarua Mountain Dairy</a> (Cimory), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-industry-trading-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-indosari-corpindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1181:1" rel="noopener">PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo</a> (ROTI), and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International</a>, for auto exposure.</li>
</ul>


This year's Jakarta Fair was a spectacle with large crowds, who were spending as well as enjoying all the discounted food on offer and viewing new products on show.
The highlights from the show were a plethora of 2W and 4W EVs, a notable presence from dairy players, and many financing options being offered by multi-finance and fintech players. 
In the consumer sector, we like Mitra Adiperkasa, Ace Hardware Indonesia, Matahari Department Store, Cisarua Mountain Dairy (Cimory), Ultrajaya Milk, PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI), and Astra International, for auto exposure.


Indonesia Consumer - Positive Impressions from the Jakarta Fair

Indonesia

PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy TBK produces diary products. The Company offers milk and yogurt. Cisarua Mountain Dairy serves customer in Indonesia.

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Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ)

Indonesian Strategy - Election Race Hots Up Amidst Profits Recovery

We explore the prospects across different sectors in Indonesia with a positive view on banks, retail, consumer staples, property, and Astra...

Angus Mackintosh

Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) - Back on Track with Dairy and Tea

Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) remains a core proxy for the under-penetration of dairy products in Indonesia, which stands at less than half of Thailand...

Angus Mackintosh

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Cimory's Growth, Cinema XXI, and Asian Plantations

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh