Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Chinese property sector, including trends in contracted sales and operations, as well as regulatory developments. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

   In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Chinese property sector, including trends in contracted sales and operations, as well as regulatory developments.    The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Chinese Property Update - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for August includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

   The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for August includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - August 2019 - Lucror Analytics

CIFI’s H1/19 results were satisfactory, on account of the decent gross margin expansion (+6 ppts y-o-y to 30%) and slower debt growth (+20% from FYE 2018). The company also reduced land acquisition spending (-27% y-o-y), which should help to support financial metrics. Earnings-based leverage metrics weakened, with Revenue/Debt down to 44% (FYE 2018: 51%). That said, Net Debt/Adjusted Inventory was satisfactory at 46% (FYE 2018: 50%). We expect CIFI to meet its full-year contracted sales target of CNY 190 bn, given the ample saleable resources available for H2/19. Negatively, the H1 revenue growth of only 9% was weaker than expected and lagged previous sales growth, possibly due to a higher proportion of sales being derived from JVs. Going forward, management looks to keep land spending below 50% of contracted sales (H1/19: 42%), and expects the land bank to sustain its target annual sales growth of 30%. The company will reduce its land investments in August and September, before ramping them up again in Q4.

   CIFI’s H1/19 results were satisfactory, on account of the decent gross margin expansion (+6 ppts y-o-y to 30%) and slower debt growth (+20% from FYE 2018). The company also reduced land acquisition spending (-27% y-o-y), which should help to support financial metrics. Earnings-based leverage metrics weakened, with Revenue/Debt down to 44% (FYE 2018: 51%). That said, Net Debt/Adjusted Inventory was satisfactory at 46% (FYE 2018: 50%).    We expect CIFI to meet its full-year contracted sales target of CNY 190 bn, given the ample saleable resources available for H2/19. Negatively, the H1 revenue growth of only 9% was weaker than expected and lagged previous sales growth, possibly due to a higher proportion of sales being derived from JVs.    Going forward, management looks to keep land spending below 50% of contracted sales (H1/19: 42%), and expects the land bank to sustain its target annual sales growth of 30%. The company will reduce its land investments in August and September, before ramping them up again in Q4. 

CIFI Holdings - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2019 Results - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar. 

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 14 Aug 2019

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 08 Aug 2019

China

CIFI Holdings Group Co Ltd. is a real estate development company. The Company develops hotels and residential properties in China.

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CIFI Holdings (884 HK)

Asia HY Monthly - Chinese Property Update - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Chinese property sector, including trends in contracted sales and operations, as...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - August 2019 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for August includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also...

Lucror Analytics

CIFI Holdings - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2019 Results - Lucror Analytics

CIFI’s H1/19 results were satisfactory, on account of the decent gross margin expansion (+6 ppts y-o-y to 30%) and slower debt growth (+20% from...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 14 Aug 2019

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 08 Aug 2019

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

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