Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We reaffirm our HOLD rating with a TP of Bt3.90, based on an unchanged 15xPE’22E. Despite, 22E earnings are expected to continue normalizing in 2H22</li>
<li>Weak QoQ anticipated in 2Q22 We forecast 2Q22E core profit to deliver at Bt781m, surge 36%YoY but drop 42%QoQ, based on the assumed gross margin contraction of 41.3%, down 0.5ppts</li>
<li>Earnings cycle poised to decelerate in 2H22 Looking ahead, we believe that 2H22 earnings momentum is poised to drop both YoY and HoH, following pandemic-related contribution fades off high base</li>
</ul>


We reaffirm our HOLD rating with a TP of Bt3.90, based on an unchanged 15xPE’22E. Despite, 22E earnings are expected to continue normalizing in 2H22
Weak QoQ anticipated in 2Q22 We forecast 2Q22E core profit to deliver at Bt781m, surge 36%YoY but drop 42%QoQ, based on the assumed gross margin contraction of 41.3%, down 0.5ppts
Earnings cycle poised to decelerate in 2H22 Looking ahead, we believe that 2H22 earnings momentum is poised to drop both YoY and HoH, following pandemic-related contribution fades off high base


<ul>
<li>Reiterate HOLD rating with a TP of B3.90, derived from 15xPE’22E, which is close to -2SD of 10-years trading mean. Although 22E earnings on a downhill path</li>
<li>We estimate 1Q22E earnings to be the peak quarter at Bt1.3bn (+418%YoY,-28%QoQ) underpin by YoY growth in COVID-revenue, but QoQ fall from weaker EBIT margin.</li>
<li>We believe earnings momentum to slow down in 2Q22, pressured by lower COVID-19 contribution, as a result of lower infection patients and stopped RT-PCR requirement.</li>
</ul>


Reiterate HOLD rating with a TP of B3.90, derived from 15xPE’22E, which is close to -2SD of 10-years trading mean. Although 22E earnings on a downhill path
We estimate 1Q22E earnings to be the peak quarter at Bt1.3bn (+418%YoY,-28%QoQ) underpin by YoY growth in COVID-revenue, but QoQ fall from weaker EBIT margin.
We believe earnings momentum to slow down in 2Q22, pressured by lower COVID-19 contribution, as a result of lower infection patients and stopped RT-PCR requirement.


CHG: 1Q22 Earnings to Hold up Strong Amid Surged COVID

<ul>
<li>Downgrade to HOLD with a TP of Bt3.90,based on 15xPE’22E, which is close to -2SD of its 10-years trailing mean. In our view,the rating does not warrant a premium valuation</li>
<li>Its 4Q21 net profit figure was at Bt1.8bn, (+615%YoY, +16% QoQ), YoY growth is backed by margin expansion from Covid-related revenue and efficient cost control.</li>
<li>CHG’s 2021 net profit was at B4.2bn (+380YoY) thanks to solid revenue growth (+116%YoY) and wider margin (+18ppts), helped by Covid-related services.</li>
</ul>


Downgrade to HOLD with a TP of Bt3.90,based on 15xPE’22E, which is close to -2SD of its 10-years trailing mean. In our view,the rating does not warrant a premium valuation
Its 4Q21 net profit figure was at Bt1.8bn, (+615%YoY, +16% QoQ), YoY growth is backed by margin expansion from Covid-related revenue and efficient cost control.
CHG’s 2021 net profit was at B4.2bn (+380YoY) thanks to solid revenue growth (+116%YoY) and wider margin (+18ppts), helped by Covid-related services.


<ul>
<li>Upgrade to BUY with a TP of Bt3.9, based on 30xPE’22E,which is its pre-COVID bottom level.The 27% drop in share price from Jul 21 peak priced in concern over 3Q21</li>
<li>Expect 4Q21 earnings at Bt854m (+234%YoY,-45%QoQ), decline due to weak revenue growth, and narrow margin.</li>
<li>Foresee momentum in 1Q22 arising from the Omicron variant,given the amount of infection patients grew roughly to 7-13k cases per day.Along with vaccines rollout, which should be realize in 1Q22</li>
</ul>


Upgrade to BUY with a TP of Bt3.9, based on 30xPE’22E,which is its pre-COVID bottom level.The 27% drop in share price from Jul 21 peak priced in concern over 3Q21
Expect 4Q21 earnings at Bt854m (+234%YoY,-45%QoQ), decline due to weak revenue growth, and narrow margin.
Foresee momentum in 1Q22 arising from the Omicron variant,given the amount of infection patients grew roughly to 7-13k cases per day.Along with vaccines rollout, which should be realize in 1Q22


CHG: Pivot Focus to Organic Growth in 2022

<ul>
<li>Yesterdays’ analyst meeting came out with a neutral tone. We expect 4Q21 margins to decline, in-response to rollover from exceptionally high 3Q21 Covid related revenue, impact by falling new Covid</li>
<li>3Q21 net profit was at Bt1.6bn (+455%YoY, +171%QoQ), backed by solid top-line, and higher-than expected margin from Covid related services.</li>
<li>•We expect 4Q21 revenue to drop QoQ, caused by reduction in revenue from Covid related services, especially in OPD, IPD, NSHO segments. But, SSO unit should grow from additional </li>
</ul>


Yesterdays’ analyst meeting came out with a neutral tone. We expect 4Q21 margins to decline, in-response to rollover from exceptionally high 3Q21 Covid related revenue, impact by falling new Covid
3Q21 net profit was at Bt1.6bn (+455%YoY, +171%QoQ), backed by solid top-line, and higher-than expected margin from Covid related services.
•We expect 4Q21 revenue to drop QoQ, caused by reduction in revenue from Covid related services, especially in OPD, IPD, NSHO segments. But, SSO unit should grow from additional 


Thailand

Chularat Hospital PCL owns medical centers and hospitals. The Company operates a variety of centers specializing in treatments such as hand surgery, open heart surgery, and strokes as well as providing emergency services and patient care. Chularat Hospital serves the medial industry throughout Thailand.

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Chularat Hospital (CHG TB)

CHG : 2Q22 Earnings to Fall QoQ

We reaffirm our HOLD rating with a TP of Bt3.90, based on an unchanged 15xPE’22E. Despite, 22E earnings are expected to continue normalizing in...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

CHG: 1Q22 Earnings to Hold up Strong Amid Surged COVID

Reiterate HOLD rating with a TP of B3.90, derived from 15xPE’22E, which is close to -2SD of 10-years trading mean. Although 22E earnings on a...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

CHG: Gradually Back to Organic Growth

Downgrade to HOLD with a TP of Bt3.90, based on 15xPE’22E, which is close to -2SD of its 10-years trailing mean. In our view, the rating does not...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

CHG: Pivot Focus to Organic Growth in 2022

Upgrade to BUY with a TP of Bt3.9, based on 30xPE’22E, which is its pre-COVID bottom level. The 27% drop in share price from Jul 21 peak priced in...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

CHG: Expect 4Q21 Earnings to Soften QoQ

Yesterdays’ analyst meeting came out with a neutral tone. We expect 4Q21 margins to decline, in-response to rollover from exceptionally high 3Q21...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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