Analyst

Alasdair Moody

Exposing Creative Accounting

Bucephalus Research Partnership

Bucephalus Research Partnership Limited. Exposing Creative Accounting.

At the Bucephalus Research Partnership (BRP) we analyse financial statements using our accountant's practical experience and our own quantitative algorithms for corporate governance, accounting risk and peer performance.

Our thematic research refines our unique algorithms while our single stock research focuses on examples where we discover a significant gap between published accounts and business reality.

​Bucephalus Research Partnership:
- Is an independent fee-based research service
- Does not take proprietary positions, long or short
- Does not solicit business or fees from the corporates we review

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We examined ten years of accounting and valuation data for the pharmaceutical companies around the world with sales of US$100m+ and created statistics for each region based on aggregate data and for a typical company. In this trend report, we summarise the data and highlight the outliers. Assuming clients will have their own macro industry views, we used valuations and our Governance, Accounting risk and Peer performance (GAP) scores, (which help quantify the risk of creative accounting) to…

We examined ten years of accounting and valuation data for the pharmaceutical companies around the world with sales of US$100m+ and created statistics for each region based on aggregate data and for a typical company. In this trend report, we summarise the data and highlight the outliers. Assuming clients will have their own macro industry views, we used valuations and our Governance, Accounting risk and Peer performance (GAP) scores, (which help quantify the risk of creative accounting) to…

Global Pharmaceuticals: Valuations, Assets and Leverage Up - Margins Down

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

We screened for large-cap names in Japan that have recently seen a spike in volatility. We calculated Beta over the last 6 months and compared it to the 7-year average Beta. We then screened for names where current Beta is more than 1.5 standard deviations above the 7-year average.As you can see from the results below, a number of names have really moved away from their historical average. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6311" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6311:1">Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma (4508 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/794" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:794:1">Mitsubishi Motors Corp (7211 JP)</a> are both close to 3 standard…

We screened for large-cap names in Japan that have recently seen a spike in volatility. We calculated Beta over the last 6 months and compared it to the 7-year average Beta. We then screened for names where current Beta is more than 1.5 standard deviations above the 7-year average.As you can see from the results below, a number of names have really moved away from their historical average. Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma (4508 JP) and Mitsubishi Motors Corp (7211 JP) are both close to 3 standard…

Large-Cap Names that Have Gotten a Lot More Volatile Recently....

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

Equity Bottom-Up

For a drug that was targeted to hit US$6~8bil in sales, last year’s US$2.3bil revenue figure for Xtandi was decidedly below par. With the start of 2017 seeing sales decline, this situation was worrying for both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6091:1">Astellas Pharma Inc (4503 JP)</a> and its new US partner <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1131" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1131:1">Pfizer (PFE US)</a>, which had only recently spent US$11 billion on buying Medivation, to get access to Xtandi. More recently, Xtandi’s big rival – <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1132" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1132:1">Johnson &amp; Johnson's (JNJ US)</a>Zytiga – had also performed well in data presented at ASCO in…

For a drug that was targeted to hit US$6~8bil in sales, last year’s US$2.3bil revenue figure for Xtandi was decidedly below par. With the start of 2017 seeing sales decline, this situation was worrying for both Astellas Pharma Inc (4503 JP) and its new US partner Pfizer (PFE US), which had only recently spent US$11 billion on buying Medivation, to get access to Xtandi. More recently, Xtandi’s big rival – Johnson &amp; Johnson's (JNJ US)Zytiga – had also performed well in data presented at ASCO in…

Astellas (4503) - PROSPER Data Revives Value Story

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4489" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4489:1">Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)</a> announced on August 24th that the US FDA has accepted its Biologics License Application (BLA) for emicizumab (emi) on Priority Review for adults, adolescents and children with haemophilia A with Factor VIII inhibitors, resulting in a PDUFA date of 23rd February 2018. The announcement was made with one hour of trading left and, if anything, the shares weakened on the news, which underscores that there was little by way of surprise here. The 79% effectiveness and…

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) announced on August 24th that the US FDA has accepted its Biologics License Application (BLA) for emicizumab (emi) on Priority Review for adults, adolescents and children with haemophilia A with Factor VIII inhibitors, resulting in a PDUFA date of 23rd February 2018. The announcement was made with one hour of trading left and, if anything, the shares weakened on the news, which underscores that there was little by way of surprise here. The 79% effectiveness and…

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Emicizumab Gets PDUFA Data

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Bullish technicals continue to support our call to overweight EM. We highlight actionable themes, as well as pullback opportunities in Europe, European luxury/apparel, UK homebuilders, EM chemicals, Japanese chemicals, and Japanese tech stocks.

Bullish technicals continue to support our call to overweight EM. We highlight actionable themes, as well as pullback opportunities in Europe, European luxury/apparel, UK homebuilders, EM chemicals, Japanese chemicals, and Japanese tech stocks.

Int'l Compass: Overweight EM; Actionable Themes in Europe and Japan

Japan

Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells pharmaceuticals products. The Company develops drugs in the fields of cancer, infectious diseases, bone, blood, and circulatory systems. Chugai Pharmaceutical also conducts research studies on drugs with private and public medical research institutions globally.

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Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JT)

Global Pharmaceuticals: Valuations, Assets and Leverage Up - Margins Down

We examined ten years of accounting and valuation data for the pharmaceutical companies around the world with sales of US$100m+ and created...

Bucephalus Research Partnership

Large-Cap Names that Have Gotten a Lot More Volatile Recently....

We screened for large-cap names in Japan that have recently seen a spike in volatility. We calculated Beta over the last 6 months and compared it...

Custom Products Group

Astellas (4503) - PROSPER Data Revives Value Story

For a drug that was targeted to hit US$6~8bil in sales, last year’s US$2.3bil revenue figure for Xtandi was decidedly below par. With the start of...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Emicizumab Gets PDUFA Data

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) announced on August 24th that the US FDA has accepted its Biologics License Application (BLA) for emicizumab (emi)...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Int'l Compass: Overweight EM; Actionable Themes in Europe and Japan

Bullish technicals continue to support our call to overweight EM. We highlight actionable themes, as well as pullback opportunities in Europe,...

Vermilion Research

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