Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.
$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.
We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.


Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Equity Bottom-Up

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitt / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE is not worried about sales pressure on the Chinese mainland as long as its clientele there is growing overall, according to Chief Financial Officer Jean-Jacques Guiony.</li><li>The world’s largest luxury goods group is looking to attract more Chinese shoppers amid a broader slowdown in demand for expensive bags, jewelry, and perfume.</li><li>Many consumers have been making their purchases outside of China, especially in Japan, where the yen is weak, the French conglomerate disclosed in its 2024 first-quarter earnings released last week.</li></ul>

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE is not worried about sales pressure on the Chinese mainland as long as its clientele there is growing overall, according to Chief Financial Officer Jean-Jacques Guiony.The world’s largest luxury goods group is looking to attract more Chinese shoppers amid a broader slowdown in demand for expensive bags, jewelry, and perfume.Many consumers have been making their purchases outside of China, especially in Japan, where the yen is weak, the French conglomerate disclosed in its 2024 first-quarter earnings released last week.

LVMH Remains Committed to China Even Amid Sluggish Sales 

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. The latest breakouts: Israel, Germany, and Sweden</li>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
<li>We continue to get more evidence suggesting the US Dollar (DXY) is rolling over, and quite likely that global sovereign 10-year yields are rolling over as well. Risk-on.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. The latest breakouts: Israel, Germany, and Sweden
Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.
We continue to get more evidence suggesting the US Dollar (DXY) is rolling over, and quite likely that global sovereign 10-year yields are rolling over as well. Risk-on.


Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.</li>
<li>As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.</li>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.
As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.
Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks


Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>European luxury goods maker enjoyed its best week in the past 52 weeks, spurred by better-than-expected results by LVMH, the industry leader and widely viewed as the bellwether  </li>
<li>China's market was cited as resilient and very strong in certain categories, defying the general market perception that Chinese demand is soft</li>
<li>The key European luxury goods share price has risen by an average of 8.2% YTD, China Tourism Group share price performance has lagged. Good buying opportunity    </li>
</ul>


European luxury goods maker enjoyed its best week in the past 52 weeks, spurred by better-than-expected results by LVMH, the industry leader and widely viewed as the bellwether  
China's market was cited as resilient and very strong in certain categories, defying the general market perception that Chinese demand is soft
The key European luxury goods share price has risen by an average of 8.2% YTD, China Tourism Group share price performance has lagged. Good buying opportunity    


LVMH & Richemont Said Chinese Demand for Luxury Goods Is Strong; POSITIVE for China Tourism Group

France

Christian Dior SE manufactures luxury products such as upscale clothing, champagne and wines, cognac and spirits, luggage and leather goods, perfumes and cosmetics, and jewelry and watches.  The Company markets its products internationally.

Price Gauge
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Christian Dior SE (CDI FP)

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

LVMH Remains Committed to China Even Amid Sluggish Sales

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE is not worried about sales pressure on the Chinese mainland as long as its clientele there is growing overall,...

Caixin Global

Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

Bullish Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over, 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX Rolling Over; More Global Indexes Breaking Out (Israel, Germany, Sweden). Buys...

Vermilion Research

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

LVMH & Richemont Said Chinese Demand for Luxury Goods Is Strong; POSITIVE for China Tourism Group

European luxury goods producers performing well and attributed to Chinese consumers. China Tourism Group is the primary beneficiary of Chinese...

Mohshin Aziz

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

LVMH Remains Committed to China Even Amid Sluggish Sales

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE is not worried about sales pressure on the Chinese mainland as long as its clientele there is growing overall,...

Caixin Global

Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

Bullish Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over, 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX Rolling Over; More Global Indexes Breaking Out (Israel, Germany, Sweden). Buys...

Vermilion Research

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

LVMH & Richemont Said Chinese Demand for Luxury Goods Is Strong; POSITIVE for China Tourism Group

​European luxury goods producers performing well and attributed to Chinese consumers. China Tourism Group is the primary beneficiary of Chinese...

Mohshin Aziz

European luxury goods producers performing well and attributed to Chinese consumers. China Tourism Group is the primary beneficiary of Chinese...