New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Chorus (CNU) held a confident investor day, laying out its post-build-out phase. The focus was on: (1) adding context to its focus of connecting 80% of fibre-ready homes</li><li>(2) infrastructure opportunities outside of fibre to the premise (FTTP), and (3) regulatory changes, with focus on an accelerated exit out of legacy copper.</li><li>Overall, we were encouraged by the emphasis on sticking to the core fibre business, the transparency around how it aims to reach 80% fibre penetration and the breadth of (admittedly individually small) infrastructure opportunities. </li></ul>

Chorus (CNU) held a confident investor day, laying out its post-build-out phase. The focus was on: (1) adding context to its focus of connecting 80% of fibre-ready homes(2) infrastructure opportunities outside of fibre to the premise (FTTP), and (3) regulatory changes, with focus on an accelerated exit out of legacy copper.Overall, we were encouraged by the emphasis on sticking to the core fibre business, the transparency around how it aims to reach 80% fibre penetration and the breadth of (admittedly individually small) infrastructure opportunities. 

<ul><li>Chorus (CNU) reported a solid FY24 result, with the key positive being strong dividend guidance, aided by an increased payout range following its capital review.</li><li>FY25 dividend guidance was ~+14% ahead of our and consensus estimates.</li><li>With a higher payout range, our longer-term dividend estimates increase high-single digits. </li></ul>

Chorus (CNU) reported a solid FY24 result, with the key positive being strong dividend guidance, aided by an increased payout range following its capital review.FY25 dividend guidance was ~+14% ahead of our and consensus estimates.With a higher payout range, our longer-term dividend estimates increase high-single digits. 

Chorus - FY24 Result — Fibre Speed Dividend Growth

<ul><li>Chorus (CNU) will report its FY24 result on Monday, 26 August.</li><li>We expect an uneventful result, with operations to be typically steady, illustrating its very defensive characteristics.</li><li>Additionally, with the number of unknowns for RP2 now limited, regulatory risk is low. </li></ul>

Chorus (CNU) will report its FY24 result on Monday, 26 August.We expect an uneventful result, with operations to be typically steady, illustrating its very defensive characteristics.Additionally, with the number of unknowns for RP2 now limited, regulatory risk is low. 

Chorus - FY24 Preview — Uneventful Is Good

<ul><li>The Commerce Commission (ComCom) released its draft decision for Chorus' (CNU) maximum allowable revenue (MAR) over its second regulatory period (RP2) covering CY25–CY28.</li><li>With the WACC and (draft) opex/capex known, the main unknown in the release is related to the treatment of depreciation and its expected wash-up from RP1.</li><li>Both were broadly in line with our (and we assume CNU's) expectations. </li></ul>

The Commerce Commission (ComCom) released its draft decision for Chorus' (CNU) maximum allowable revenue (MAR) over its second regulatory period (RP2) covering CY25–CY28.With the WACC and (draft) opex/capex known, the main unknown in the release is related to the treatment of depreciation and its expected wash-up from RP1.Both were broadly in line with our (and we assume CNU's) expectations. 

<ul><li>Chorus (CNU) reported an in-line 1H24 result across the board.</li><li>Greater than 90% of the value of CNU now sits with its regulated fibre assets where the regulatory regime is increasingly predictable.</li><li>The remaining areas of uncertainty relate to: (1) what, if anything, is the value of the copper tail. Management expects that copper will remain cash flow positive — we are not fully convinced; (2) unregulated non-copper earnings. </li></ul>

Chorus (CNU) reported an in-line 1H24 result across the board.Greater than 90% of the value of CNU now sits with its regulated fibre assets where the regulatory regime is increasingly predictable.The remaining areas of uncertainty relate to: (1) what, if anything, is the value of the copper tail. Management expects that copper will remain cash flow positive — we are not fully convinced; (2) unregulated non-copper earnings. 

Chorus - No Surprises, Just What the Doctor Ordered

New Zealand

Chorus Limited is a wholesale and retail telecommunications company.  The Company maintains and build the Chorus local access network which is made up of local telephone exchanges, cabinets and copper and fiber cables that connects New Zealand homes and businesses throughout the country.

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Chorus Ltd (CNU NZ)

Chorus - Fibre Only Future

Chorus (CNU) held a confident investor day, laying out its post-build-out phase. The focus was on: (1) adding context to its focus of connecting...

Forsyth Barr

Chorus - FY24 Result — Fibre Speed Dividend Growth

Chorus (CNU) reported a solid FY24 result, with the key positive being strong dividend guidance, aided by an increased payout range following its...

Forsyth Barr

Chorus - FY24 Preview — Uneventful Is Good

We expect an uneventful result, with operations to be typically steady, illustrating its very defensive characteristics.

Forsyth Barr

Chorus - Regulatory Wheels Keep Turning

The Commerce Commission (ComCom) released its draft decision for Chorus' (CNU) maximum allowable revenue (MAR) over its second regulatory period...

Forsyth Barr

Chorus - No Surprises, Just What the Doctor Ordered

Greater than 90% of the value of CNU now sits with its regulated fibre assets where the regulatory regime is increasingly predictable.

Forsyth Barr

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