Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The NBS house price data for 70 major cities in January was released on Saturday and shows a renewed deceleration in the average price growth year-on-year across the major cities and a slightly slower month-on-month sequential growth.

The NBS house price data for 70 major cities in January was released on Saturday and shows a renewed deceleration in the average price growth year-on-year across the major cities and a slightly slower month-on-month sequential growth. 

China House Price Growth Back To The Slow Slowdown Trend After December Pickup (January NBS Data)

In our annual 2018 Forecast for the housing market in China (new home sales), the main scenario is a continuous slowdown in price growth, driven by the policy factors and the increased land supply, with sales volumes also slowing but proving more resilient. In this note, we cover the summary of the forecast and some notes from our 6th Annual China Property Outlook seminar we held on January 16.

In our annual 2018 Forecast for the housing market in China (new home sales), the main scenario is a continuous slowdown in price growth, driven by the policy factors and the increased land supply, with sales volumes also slowing but proving more resilient. In this note, we cover the summary of the forecast and some notes from our 6th Annual China Property Outlook seminar we held on January 16.

China Property 2018 Forecast Summary - What Will The Housing Market Do?

Today's NBS house price data for 70 major cities in December shows an acceleration of price growth year-on-year, which is in contrast to the slowdown trend that had persisted since November 2016. It differs from the expectations of a continued gradual cooling, although that's just a single data point so far, too early to consider it a reversal of a trend yet.

Today's NBS house price data for 70 major cities in December shows an acceleration of price growth year-on-year, which is in contrast to the slowdown trend that had persisted since November 2016. It differs from the expectations of a continued gradual cooling, although that's just a single data point so far, too early to consider it a reversal of a trend yet. 

China House Price Growth Accelerated Y/Y And M/M In Dec, In Contrast To The Slowdown Since Nov'16

We look at the weekly new home sales data (gross floor area sold) for the 13 major cities sample in China, with the data covering the period ending on December 31, as an early alternative indicator for the growth pattern seen in the monthly national sales volumes figures for December - expected to be published on January 18.

We look at the weekly new home sales data (gross floor area sold) for the 13 major cities sample in China, with the data covering the period ending on December 31, as an early alternative indicator for the growth pattern seen in the monthly national sales volumes figures for December - expected to be published on January 18.  

China Weekly Property Sales Data (13 Cities To December 31) - Positive Surprise for December?

Today's NBS house price data for November continues to show further deceleration of the house price growth across 70 major cities on a year-on-year basis to +5.1% from  +5.4% in October (+5.7% to +5.5% non-weighted), but the pace of deceleration slowed and the month-on-month growth sustained at +0.3%, overall stronger figures than we forecast.

Today's NBS house price data for November continues to show further deceleration of the house price growth across 70 major cities on a year-on-year basis to +5.1% from  +5.4% in October (+5.7% to +5.5% non-weighted), but the pace of deceleration slowed and the month-on-month growth sustained at +0.3%, overall stronger figures than we forecast. 

China House Price Growth Decelerated Slightly Further Y/​​Y, Sustained M/​M - Today's Data For Nov

China

China Vanke Co., Ltd. operates real estate development businesses.  The Company provides housing renovation, housing loans, real estate brokerage, and other businesses. China Vanke also operates logistics, material supply, and other businesses.

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China Vanke (000002 CH)

China House Price Growth Back To The Slow Slowdown Trend After December Pickup (January NBS Data)

The NBS house price data for 70 major cities in January was released on Saturday and shows a renewed deceleration in the average price growth...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property 2018 Forecast Summary - What Will The Housing Market Do?

In our annual 2018 Forecast for the housing market in China (new home sales), the main scenario is a continuous slowdown in price growth, driven by...

Robert Ciemniak

China House Price Growth Accelerated Y/Y And M/M In Dec, In Contrast To The Slowdown Since Nov'16

Today's NBS house price data for 70 major cities in December shows an acceleration of price growth year-on-year, which is in contrast to the...

Robert Ciemniak

China Weekly Property Sales Data (13 Cities To December 31) - Positive Surprise for December?

We look at the weekly new home sales data (gross floor area sold) for the 13 major cities sample in China, with the data covering the period ending...

Robert Ciemniak

China House Price Growth Decelerated Slightly Further Y/Y, Sustained M/M - Today's Data For Nov

Today's NBS house price data for November continues to show further deceleration of the house price growth across 70 major cities on a year-on-year...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China House Price Growth Back To The Slow Slowdown Trend After December Pickup (January NBS Data)

The NBS house price data for 70 major cities in January was released on Saturday and shows a renewed deceleration in the average price growth...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property 2018 Forecast Summary - What Will The Housing Market Do?

In our annual 2018 Forecast for the housing market in China (new home sales), the main scenario is a continuous slowdown in price growth, driven by...

Robert Ciemniak

China House Price Growth Accelerated Y/Y And M/M In Dec, In Contrast To The Slowdown Since Nov'16

Today's NBS house price data for 70 major cities in December shows an acceleration of price growth year-on-year, which is in contrast to the...

Robert Ciemniak

China Weekly Property Sales Data (13 Cities To December 31) - Positive Surprise for December?

We look at the weekly new home sales data (gross floor area sold) for the 13 major cities sample in China, with the data covering the period ending...

Robert Ciemniak

China House Price Growth Decelerated Slightly Further Y/​​Y, Sustained M/​M - Today's Data For Nov

Today's NBS house price data for November continues to show further deceleration of the house price growth across 70 major cities on a year-on-year...

Robert Ciemniak

China House Price Growth Decelerated Slightly Further Y/Y, Sustained M/M - Today's Data For Nov