Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Beyond the aggregate figures, most investors interested in China housing markets would look at the breakdown by Tier. We introduce a few alternative ways to cut the house price growth data, illustrating some consistent patterns that could be more meaningful for any investment thesis than the simple by-tier.

Beyond the aggregate figures, most investors interested in China housing markets would look at the breakdown by Tier. We introduce a few alternative ways to cut the house price growth data, illustrating some consistent patterns that could be more meaningful for any investment thesis than the simple by-tier.

China Housing: Cities Without Tiers - An Alternative Data Cut With Illuminating Patterns

We expect a gradual slowdown for prices and volumes - ending the year slightly negative year-on-year, off a high base, with the selective easing and relatively low land supply cushioning the impact of a cyclical downturn otherwise driven by financing conditions for developers, increased supply of new homes at the time of slowing sales off record volumes in 2018, and broader economic slowdown due to macro factors.

We expect a gradual slowdown for prices and volumes - ending the year slightly negative year-on-year, off a high base, with the selective easing and relatively low land supply cushioning the impact of a cyclical downturn otherwise driven by financing conditions for developers, increased supply of new homes at the time of slowing sales off record volumes in 2018, and broader economic slowdown due to macro factors.

Today's data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on new home prices for 70 major cities shows on average an accelerating year-on-year price growth and a slower month-on-month increase. This contrasts with a picture of a slowing price growth based on a different index from SouFun-CREIS.

Today's data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on new home prices for 70 major cities shows on average an accelerating year-on-year price growth and a slower month-on-month increase. This contrasts with a picture of a slowing price growth based on a different index from SouFun-CREIS.

China Housing: Are Prices Rising Faster Or Slower?

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released today the key China data for November, related to property sales and investments by developers at a national level, showing a gradually decelerating growth of new home sales volumes (residential gross floor area for "commercial residential" property) year-to-date year-on-year and the decline on a 3-month year-on-year basis, with a sustained pace of new starts and investments, slightly slower land acquisition growth. In line with our expectations.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released today the key China data for November, related to property sales and investments by developers at a national level, showing a gradually decelerating growth of new home sales volumes (residential gross floor area for "commercial residential" property) year-to-date year-on-year and the decline on a 3-month year-on-year basis, with a sustained pace of new starts and investments, slightly slower land acquisition growth. In line with our expectations. 

China Housing: November Sales Volume Growth Slower YTD Y/Y, Negative 3M Y/Y (Today's Data From NBS)

Here's a puzzle. How come the NBS metrics show an accelerating house price growth in October when you hear all the news and anecdotes about discounted prices, the "coming winter" for the housing market and a surge in financing costs?

Here's a puzzle. How come the NBS metrics show an accelerating house price growth in October when you hear all the news and anecdotes about discounted prices, the "coming winter" for the housing market and a surge in financing costs?

China Housing: The Puzzling Price Growth - October NBS Data

China

China Vanke Co., Ltd. operates real estate development businesses.  The Company provides housing renovation, housing loans, real estate brokerage, and other businesses. China Vanke also operates logistics, material supply, and other businesses.

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China Vanke (000002 CH)

China Housing: Cities Without Tiers - An Alternative Data Cut With Illuminating Patterns

Beyond the aggregate figures, most investors interested in China housing markets would look at the breakdown by Tier. We introduce a few...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: 2019 Forecast

We expect a gradual slowdown for prices and volumes - ending the year slightly negative year-on-year, off a high base, with the selective easing...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: Are Prices Rising Faster Or Slower?

Today's data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on new home prices for 70 major cities shows on average an accelerating year-on-year...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: November Sales Volume Growth Slower YTD Y/Y, Negative 3M Y/Y (Today's Data From NBS)

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released today the key China data for November, related to property sales and investments by developers at...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: The Puzzling Price Growth - October NBS Data

Here's a puzzle. How come the NBS metrics show an accelerating house price growth in October when you hear all the news and anecdotes about...

Robert Ciemniak

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