Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

In this insight, we highlight some recent developments on the policy front in China before commenting on the tactical indicators. The main current issues for investors to consider are:<ol>
<li>is the very visible pick-up in the economy and corporate sector likely to prove self-sustaining;</li>
<li>are the authorities serious about policy tightening and/or economic reform;</li>
<li>what action will the US administration take over both the bilateral trade imbalance and also over North Korea, which has emerged as the second…</li>
</ol>

In this insight, we highlight some recent developments on the policy front in China before commenting on the tactical indicators. The main current issues for investors to consider are:
is the very visible pick-up in the economy and corporate sector likely to prove self-sustaining;
are the authorities serious about policy tightening and/or economic reform;
what action will the US administration take over both the bilateral trade imbalance and also over North Korea, which has emerged as the second…


China: Can Beijing Maintain the Policy Balancing Act Through 2017? (Part 2 of 8)

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

Equity Bottom-Up

As you know we track the Analyst Upgrades / Downgrades over the previous 2 week to identify potential trends in popularity. Which Sectors / Countries do the Analysts like and which ones do they not.<h2>% of Upgrades relative to Total (Country Level)  </h2><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/023/339/original/4.png?1490822348" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="23339"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Custom Products</div>Interestingly over the last 2 week, Hong Kong has had the most Upgrades relative to total recommendations while China has had the least. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/175" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a> had 5 upgrades and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/368" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:368:1">China Oilfield Services H (2883 HK)</a> also had 5…

As you know we track the Analyst Upgrades / Downgrades over the previous 2 week to identify potential trends in popularity. Which Sectors / Countries do the Analysts like and which ones do they not.% of Upgrades relative to Total (Country Level)  Source: Custom ProductsInterestingly over the last 2 week, Hong Kong has had the most Upgrades relative to total recommendations while China has had the least. CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) had 5 upgrades and China Oilfield Services H (2883 HK) also had 5…

Most Popular / Unpopular Sectors and Countries in Asia - Ex Japan

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Hungary: Faster earnings growth should drive GDP higher in coming months. Mexico: Expected to raise rates 50bps next Thursday in the wake of inflation reported this week at 5.3% (the highest rate in 8 years).  This is a critical positive development for the Peso. Saudi Arabia: Has the most to lose from lower prices as this complicates attempts to diversify their economy.  Iran is less concerned as they are just coming off of sanctions and any revenue they get is better than before.  Iraq would…

Hungary: Faster earnings growth should drive GDP higher in coming months. Mexico: Expected to raise rates 50bps next Thursday in the wake of inflation reported this week at 5.3% (the highest rate in 8 years).  This is a critical positive development for the Peso. Saudi Arabia: Has the most to lose from lower prices as this complicates attempts to diversify their economy.  Iran is less concerned as they are just coming off of sanctions and any revenue they get is better than before.  Iraq would…

Who Wins and Who Loses from Oil Under $50? Hint: Invest in Asia

Differentiated global TMT & Internet Research

New Street Research Insights

New Street Research

Research is provided by our team of experienced analysts. Our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focused on fundamentals and valuation of telecoms and internet names globally. New Street is headquartered in London with offices in New York, Singapore and Australia. 

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
Japan Telecoms
Asian Internet
Pan European Healthcare
US Healthcare
Japanese Healthcare

We also provide debt research on:
Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1015" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1015:1">China Telecom (728 HK)</a> reported solid 4Q16 results, with a sharp acceleration in mobile service revenue propelled by strong data trends. Mobile service revenue grew by 11.1% YoY in 4Q, the best growth since 3Q14. We see good traction for China Telecom's 4G offering while pressure on domestic roaming fees seems to have had little impact. Mobile data traffic grew 136% YoY in 4Q with 83% of this being on the 4G network. Data traffic per 4G user rose 39% to 1.36GB/month - solid growth but also…

China Telecom (728 HK) reported solid 4Q16 results, with a sharp acceleration in mobile service revenue propelled by strong data trends. Mobile service revenue grew by 11.1% YoY in 4Q, the best growth since 3Q14. We see good traction for China Telecom's 4G offering while pressure on domestic roaming fees seems to have had little impact. Mobile data traffic grew 136% YoY in 4Q with 83% of this being on the 4G network. Data traffic per 4G user rose 39% to 1.36GB/month - solid growth but also…

China Telecom: Strong Revenue Growth but Higher Network Costs Hit Ebitda. Outlook Remains Positive.

Energy Expert

Thierry Bros, PhD

Thierrybros.com

Interesting article in the Financial Time (FT) on stock exchanges fighting for Saudi Aramco IPO <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/41af604e-0315-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9" target="_blank">https://www.ft.com/content/41af604e-0315-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9 </a>with the following conclusion "Saudi Aramco will initially list as much as 5% of the company and investors and analysts have questioned the size of Riyadh’s $2tn valuation. But even if it reaches just half that target it would still raise $50bn — twice as much as Alibaba’s record IPO in 2014."Back in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/saudi-aramco-value-tn-maybe-not" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:8177">Saudi Aramco Value: $tn? Maybe Not!</a> my…

Interesting article in the Financial Time (FT) on stock exchanges fighting for Saudi Aramco IPO https://www.ft.com/content/41af604e-0315-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9 with the following conclusion "Saudi Aramco will initially list as much as 5% of the company and investors and analysts have questioned the size of Riyadh’s $2tn valuation. But even if it reaches just half that target it would still raise $50bn — twice as much as Alibaba’s record IPO in 2014."Back in Saudi Aramco Value: $tn? Maybe Not! my…

New York and London Battle for Saudi Aramco IPO

China

China Shenhua Energy Company Limited is an integrated coal-based energy company focusing on the coal and power businesses in China.  The Company also owns and operates an integrated coal transportation network consisting of dedicated rail lines and port facilities.

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China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK)

China: Can Beijing Maintain the Policy Balancing Act Through 2017? (Part 2 of 8)

In this insight, we highlight some recent developments on the policy front in China before commenting on the tactical indicators. The main current...

John-Paul Smith

Most Popular / Unpopular Sectors and Countries in Asia - Ex Japan

As you know we track the Analyst Upgrades / Downgrades over the previous 2 week to identify potential trends in popularity. Which Sectors /...

Custom Products Group

Who Wins and Who Loses from Oil Under $50? Hint: Invest in Asia

Hungary: Faster earnings growth should drive GDP higher in coming months.Mexico: Expected to raise rates 50bps next Thursday in the wake of...

David Riedel

China Telecom: Strong Revenue Growth but Higher Network Costs Hit Ebitda. Outlook Remains Positive.

China Telecom (728 HK) reported solid 4Q16 results, with a sharp acceleration in mobile service revenue propelled by strong data trends. Mobile...

New Street Research

New York and London Battle for Saudi Aramco IPO

Interesting article in the Financial Time (FT) on stock exchanges fighting for Saudi Aramco IPO...

Thierry Bros, PhD

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