Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Based on the close of 21 August, there could be two changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-ftse-a50-china-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:249:1" rel="noopener">iShares A50 China (2823 HK)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csop-ftse-china-a50-etf-26e3b671-fa47-4165-a12e-bf841640c5a3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23664:1" rel="noopener">CSOP A50 (HKD) (2822 HK)</a> in September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nari-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4364:1" rel="noopener">NARI Technology Co Ltd A (600406 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csc-financial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27823:1" rel="noopener">CSC Financial (601066 CH)</a> should replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongwei-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14405:1" rel="noopener">Tongwei Co Ltd A (600438 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shaanxi-coal-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11254:1" rel="noopener">Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225 CH)</a> in the ETFs.</li>
<li>There are couple of stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from the ETFs. Plus there are cash and carry positions that will need to be rebalanced, adding to flow.</li>
</ul>


Based on the close of 21 August, there could be two changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK)/ CSOP A50 (HKD) (2822 HK) in September.

NARI Technology Co Ltd A (600406 CH) and CSC Financial (601066 CH) should replace Tongwei Co Ltd A (600438 CH) and Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225 CH) in the ETFs.
There are couple of stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from the ETFs. Plus there are cash and carry positions that will need to be rebalanced, adding to flow.


Offshore China ETFs Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Expected in September

<ul>
<li>As of 1 August, there could be two changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-ftse-a50-china-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:249:1" rel="noopener">iShares A50 China (2823 HK)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csop-ftse-china-a50-etf-26e3b671-fa47-4165-a12e-bf841640c5a3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23664:1" rel="noopener">CSOP A50 (2822 HK)</a> in September.</li>
<li>There should be over 1x ADV to buy on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nari-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4364:1" rel="noopener">NARI Technology Co Ltd A (600406 CH)</a> and over 1x ADV to sell on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shaanxi-coal-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11254:1" rel="noopener">Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225 CH)</a>. </li>
<li>There are a few stocks bunched around similar market caps among the potential adds and there could be changes to the list over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


As of 1 August, there could be two changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK)/ CSOP A50 (2822 HK) in September.
There should be over 1x ADV to buy on NARI Technology Co Ltd A (600406 CH) and over 1x ADV to sell on Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225 CH). 
There are a few stocks bunched around similar market caps among the potential adds and there could be changes to the list over the next few weeks.


Offshore China ETFs Rebalance Preview: Two Changes in September

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 115.0% as of Jul 28th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 0.8ppt week on week, led by information technology, communication services, energy and offset by health care, consumer staples.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Vanke, CITIC Sec, China Pacific, BYD, CMOC, GF Sec, CICC.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 115.0% as of Jul 28th.
The average A-H premium changed by 0.8ppt week on week, led by information technology, communication services, energy and offset by health care, consumer staples.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Vanke, CITIC Sec, China Pacific, BYD, CMOC, GF Sec, CICC.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 28th): China Vanke, CITIC Sec, China Pacific, BYD, CMOC, GF Sec, CICC

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for PetroChina, China Mobile, Xpeng, Bilibili, Kuaishou, CCB, ICBC, BYD, HSBC.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight flows for PetroChina, China Mobile, Xpeng, Bilibili, Kuaishou, CCB, ICBC, BYD, HSBC.


Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: $366m Outflows in June

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/syngenta-ag-84b1a20a-a381-401b-aa06-25b303fce01e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25035:1" rel="noopener">Syngenta AG (SYNN SW)</a> has passed the listing committee meeting to raise CNY 65bn (US$9.1bn) in a Main Board listing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>We forecast <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/syngenta-ag-84b1a20a-a381-401b-aa06-25b303fce01e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25035:1" rel="noopener">Syngenta AG (SYNN SW)</a> will be added to the SSE180 Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50 Index</a> and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> indices at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>Inclusion in the SSE A Share Index could take a year and that will hold up inclusion in Northbound Stock Connect and consequently in global indices.</li>
</ul>



Syngenta AG (SYNN SW) has passed the listing committee meeting to raise CNY 65bn (US$9.1bn) in a Main Board listing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
We forecast Syngenta AG (SYNN SW) will be added to the SSE180 Index, SSE50 Index and the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) indices at the December rebalance.
Inclusion in the SSE A Share Index could take a year and that will hold up inclusion in Northbound Stock Connect and consequently in global indices.


China

China Shenhua Energy Company Limited is an integrated coal-based energy company focusing on the coal and power businesses in China.  The Company also owns and operates an integrated coal transportation network consisting of dedicated rail lines and port facilities.

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China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK)

Offshore China ETFs Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Expected in September

There should be 2 changes for 2822/2823 HK in September. Impact of passive trading will be 0.5-1.5x ADV and could be higher due to cash and carry...

Brian Freitas

Offshore China ETFs Rebalance Preview: Two Changes in September

There could be two sets of the changes for the 2823/2822 ETFs in September. A couple of stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade. There are few close...

Brian Freitas

A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 28th): China Vanke, CITIC Sec, China Pacific, BYD, CMOC, GF Sec, CICC

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Vanke, CITIC Sec, China Pacific, BYD, CMOC, GF Sec, CICC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: $366m Outflows in June

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for June and highlight flows for PetroChina, China Mobile, Xpeng, Bilibili, Kuaishou, CCB, ICBC, BYD, HSBC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Syngenta IPO - Index Entry Possibilities

Syngenta could raise US$9.1bn selling 20% of its shares. There will be small passive buying in December from locals. Non-inclusion in the SSE A...

Brian Freitas

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