Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Uptick in Real Estate positioning driven by a shift towards Indian Real Estate stocks, which has outweighed reductions in exposure to China &amp; HK Real Estate</li>
<li>Three names stand out: Phoenix Mills, Macrotech Developers, and DLF Limited, all of which have seen ownership rise to record levels.</li>
<li>New positions in Indian Real Estate by Allianz and JKC have been offset by closures in Chinese Real Estate by LO Funds and SEB, among others.</li>
</ul>


Uptick in Real Estate positioning driven by a shift towards Indian Real Estate stocks, which has outweighed reductions in exposure to China &amp; HK Real Estate
Three names stand out: Phoenix Mills, Macrotech Developers, and DLF Limited, all of which have seen ownership rise to record levels.
New positions in Indian Real Estate by Allianz and JKC have been offset by closures in Chinese Real Estate by LO Funds and SEB, among others.


Real Estate:  India/China Rotation Sparks Sector Growth

Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>News report today that RMB may appreciate 10% due to potential USD weakness and capital inflow of USD1trn back into China, causing upward pressure of the currency</li>
<li>The capital inflow comes from potential unwinding of carry trade, as Chinese companies borrow CNY at low interest rate and place capital in USD deposit, at higher interest rate</li>
<li>We think this scenario is unlikely unless China economy is showing strong recovery.  But, if this happens, it will hurt export but positive for HK-listed Chinese property stocks</li>
</ul>


News report today that RMB may appreciate 10% due to potential USD weakness and capital inflow of USD1trn back into China, causing upward pressure of the currency
The capital inflow comes from potential unwinding of carry trade, as Chinese companies borrow CNY at low interest rate and place capital in USD deposit, at higher interest rate
We think this scenario is unlikely unless China economy is showing strong recovery.  But, if this happens, it will hurt export but positive for HK-listed Chinese property stocks


What Is the Implication if RMB Appreciates 10%?

<ul>
<li>Jackson Hole is annual event among central bankers and economists, where Fed Chair Powell will also be speaking on Friday</li>
<li>In the scenario of a new Fed rate cut cycle, we expect Hong Kong RE, China RE and Singapore RE to benefit, while investors can reduce exposure in Japan RE</li>
<li>We also recommend some trade ideas based on our analysis and suggest specific stocks</li>
</ul>


Jackson Hole is annual event among central bankers and economists, where Fed Chair Powell will also be speaking on Friday
In the scenario of a new Fed rate cut cycle, we expect Hong Kong RE, China RE and Singapore RE to benefit, while investors can reduce exposure in Japan RE
We also recommend some trade ideas based on our analysis and suggest specific stocks


A Scenario Analysis: If Fed Initiates a Rate Cut Cycle, How Should Investors Position Themselves?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16185:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH)</a> has got approval to list on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> and reports are that the listing could be up to US$3bn.</li>
<li>That issue size is around half of the maximum that the company can issue. But it would still need cornerstone investors and a nice discount on the H-shares.</li>
<li>The stock will still get included in some indices even with the scaled down size, and inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect is a given.</li>
</ul>



Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) has got approval to list on the HKEX (388 HK) and reports are that the listing could be up to US$3bn.
That issue size is around half of the maximum that the company can issue. But it would still need cornerstone investors and a nice discount on the H-shares.
The stock will still get included in some indices even with the scaled down size, and inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect is a given.


Midea Group (000333 CH): Index Implications at US$3bn Issue Size

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The epicenter of the Asian ETF selloff last week was Japan, recording an outflow of nearly $100B from equity funds taking the net flows back to breakeven for the YTD.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seazen" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14882:1" rel="noopener">Seazen (Formerly Future Land) (1030 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5775:1" rel="noopener">Swire Properties (1972 HK)</a> had positive announcements while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-techn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)</a> announced earnings.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a> shares are under pressure as the telco sector goes through a price war in cloud services and investors take profits from high dividend names.
</li>
</ul>


The epicenter of the Asian ETF selloff last week was Japan, recording an outflow of nearly $100B from equity funds taking the net flows back to breakeven for the YTD.

Seazen (Formerly Future Land) (1030 HK) and Swire Properties (1972 HK) had positive announcements while New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK) and Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) announced earnings.


China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK) shares are under pressure as the telco sector goes through a price war in cloud services and investors take profits from high dividend names.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 10)

Hong Kong

China Overseas Land & Investment Limited provides real estate services. The Company develops, manages, and invests in commercial properties. China Overseas Land & Investment serves customers globally.

China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

Price Gauge
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China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

Real Estate: India/China Rotation Sparks Sector Growth

Real Estate exposure grows among active Asia Ex-Japan funds, sparked by a rotation in to Indian Real Estate, as China & HK positioning falls.

Steven Holden

What Is the Implication if RMB Appreciates 10%?

News report that CNY may appreciate 10% due to weaker USD and unwinding of carry trade causing USD1trn capital inflow to China. It's unlikely, but...

Jacob Cheng

A Scenario Analysis: If Fed Initiates a Rate Cut Cycle, How Should Investors Position Themselves?

We conducted a scenario analysis on Asia real estate if Fed is to initiate a new rate cut cycle. Within Asia, we expect Hong Kong, China and...

Jacob Cheng

Midea Group (000333 CH): Index Implications at US$3bn Issue Size

The CSRC and HKEX have both approved Midea Group's H-share listing. Reports indicate an issue size of up to US$3bn. Index inclusion gets tougher at...

Brian Freitas

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 10)

Japan had massive outflows in equity ETF's for the week. Property firms Seazen and Swire Properties had positive earnings news. New Oriental and...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)