Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

China Overseas Land & Investment / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>A large triple bottom in 2021/2022 has confirmed a likely multi-year base and evolving multi-year uptrend. Q1 2023 has delivered a correction within the evolving uptrend.</li>
<li>A bullish weekly reversal pattern last week has confirmed that the 2023 correction is likely complete. Initial target at 23.20 (+11%), the break above which will target 27.35 (+30%).</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
A large triple bottom in 2021/2022 has confirmed a likely multi-year base and evolving multi-year uptrend. Q1 2023 has delivered a correction within the evolving uptrend.
A bullish weekly reversal pattern last week has confirmed that the 2023 correction is likely complete. Initial target at 23.20 (+11%), the break above which will target 27.35 (+30%).


China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd (688 HK) - Large Base in 2021/2022 - Material Upside in 2023

Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>PBoC just announced a RRR cut of 25bps, which is a surprise to market</li>
<li>The cut will lower average RRR from 7.8% to 7.6%, and is expected to release c. 500bn of liquidity. China’s low inflation allows more room for further RRR cuts</li>
<li>Government’s press release addresses key market concerns.  We need to monitor recovery in property market.  LONG China on easing cycle.  China property names are trading at distressed valuation</li>
</ul>


PBoC just announced a RRR cut of 25bps, which is a surprise to market
The cut will lower average RRR from 7.8% to 7.6%, and is expected to release c. 500bn of liquidity. China’s low inflation allows more room for further RRR cuts
Government’s press release addresses key market concerns.  We need to monitor recovery in property market.  LONG China on easing cycle.  China property names are trading at distressed valuation


Short Note: LONG China on Monetary Easing Cycle

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>News reports indicate that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18368:1" rel="noopener">China Vanke (H) (2202 HK)</a> is looking to place 300m shares at a price range of HK$12.93-13.20/share to raise around US$500m.</li>
<li>The 300m shares is nearly 33 days of ADV, but around 11-12% of the new shares will be bought by passive trackers early next week and provide near-term support.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18368:1" rel="noopener">China Vanke (H) (2202 HK)</a> trades cheaper than its peers on EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA and forward PE. Shorts have ticked higher in the last couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


News reports indicate that China Vanke (H) (2202 HK) is looking to place 300m shares at a price range of HK$12.93-13.20/share to raise around US$500m.
The 300m shares is nearly 33 days of ADV, but around 11-12% of the new shares will be bought by passive trackers early next week and provide near-term support.

China Vanke (H) (2202 HK) trades cheaper than its peers on EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA and forward PE. Shorts have ticked higher in the last couple of weeks.


China Vanke (2202 HK): Placement & Index Flows

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>China Vanke aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share primary placement.</li>
<li>Vanke had recently stated that it aimed to raise around US$2bn via an A-share private placement, so a placement was expected for sure.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


China Vanke aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share primary placement.
Vanke had recently stated that it aimed to raise around US$2bn via an A-share private placement, so a placement was expected for sure.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


China Vanke Placement - A Placement Was Expected, Unclear if It Was This One

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 6th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, China Mobile, Wuxi Biologics, Kuaishou Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 6th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, China Mobile, Wuxi Biologics, Kuaishou Technology.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 6th): Tencent, China Mobile, Wuxi Biologics, Kuaishou

Hong Kong

China Overseas Land & Investment Limited provides real estate services. The Company develops, manages, and invests in commercial properties. China Overseas Land & Investment serves customers globally.

China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

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China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd (688 HK) - Large Base in 2021/2022 - Material Upside in 2023

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

Short Note: LONG China on Monetary Easing Cycle

China just announced a 25bps RRR cut, which is a surprise. China's low inflation allows more room to RRR cuts. Jan-Feb macro data shows...

Jacob Cheng

China Vanke (2202 HK): Placement & Index Flows

China Vanke is looking to sell 300m shares in a placement to raise US$500m. Passive index trackers will buy between 11-12% of the new shares early...

Brian Freitas

China Vanke Placement - A Placement Was Expected, Unclear if It Was This One

China Vanke aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share primary placement. In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through...

Sumeet Singh

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 6th): Tencent, China Mobile, Wuxi Biologics, Kuaishou

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Tencent, China Mobile, Wuxi Biologics, Kuaishou.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)