Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Credit

HNA has grown so Huge it has become a National interest, in our judgment. Its Aggressive acquisitions backed by rising leverage have raised execution as well as refinancing risks. The group's reliance on shadow banking to reach its global aspiration leads us to question the management's long-term strategy.  Questionable corporate governance makes it difficult to measure the company's willingness to pay. Though we believe HNA's importance to the Chinese economy could mean an implicit support from the central government or government-owned banks, near-term refinancing risk toward August 2019 pose asymmetric downside risk and we are UNDERWEIGHT on the SANYPH and HONAIR complexes as well as GRCHAR 19s.

HNA has grown so Huge it has become a National interest, in our judgment. Its Aggressive acquisitions backed by rising leverage have raised execution as well as refinancing risks. The group's reliance on shadow banking to reach its global aspiration leads us to question the management's long-term strategy.  Questionable corporate governance makes it difficult to measure the company's willingness to pay. Though we believe HNA's importance to the Chinese economy could mean an implicit support from the central government or government-owned banks, near-term refinancing risk toward August 2019 pose asymmetric downside risk and we are UNDERWEIGHT on the SANYPH and HONAIR complexes as well as GRCHAR 19s.

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Other asset growth is surging at China’s banks. It is a line item often associated with assets of limited liquidity, impossible to value, or not easy to fit into a more benign classifications. In the Asian Financial Crisis this was an area of interest: this account included interest in suspense, which was linked to delinquent loans.  Even on a good day, China’s granular data is not wholly clear, so data here is murky. Save to say, that with these so-called other assets now account for more than…

Other asset growth is surging at China’s banks. It is a line item often associated with assets of limited liquidity, impossible to value, or not easy to fit into a more benign classifications. In the Asian Financial Crisis this was an area of interest: this account included interest in suspense, which was linked to delinquent loans.  Even on a good day, China’s granular data is not wholly clear, so data here is murky. Save to say, that with these so-called other assets now account for more than…

Other Assets May Conceal Bad Loans: China

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

This time could be DIFFERENT!For years, investors have shorted Chinese property companies due to the excess capacity. Excess capacity is still there but combined with the sky-high level of indebtedness, the government initiative to cool the overheated property market, banks' over-reliant on Wealth Management Products sales to boost income could; they all could be the much-needed catalysts to re-start the hard-landing investment theme. Among others, property developer stocks and rural bank stocks are most vulnerable to the increase in interest rates as the former are highly indebted, yet provide high yielding corporate bonds that become an important component to the booming wealth management product (WMP) in China. Rural bank stocks have been pushing wealth management product aggressively to boost their income, neglecting the real risk of having increased and concentrated exposure to domestic corporate bond market which is susceptible to interest rate increase.

This time could be DIFFERENT!For years, investors have shorted Chinese property companies due to the excess capacity. Excess capacity is still there but combined with the sky-high level of indebtedness, the government initiative to cool the overheated property market, banks' over-reliant on Wealth Management Products sales to boost income could; they all could be the much-needed catalysts to re-start the hard-landing investment theme. Among others, property developer stocks and rural bank stocks are most vulnerable to the increase in interest rates as the former are highly indebted, yet provide high yielding corporate bonds that become an important component to the booming wealth management product (WMP) in China. Rural bank stocks have been pushing wealth management product aggressively to boost their income, neglecting the real risk of having increased and concentrated exposure to domestic corporate bond market which is susceptible to interest rate increase. 

High Leverage Property Developer and Rural Bank Stocks in China: Smells Like Trouble?

Founder, Supreme Peoples Court Monitor

Susan Finder

Founder

Supreme Peoples Court Monitor

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/024/749/original/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-21%20at%208.49.13%20PM.png?1492779009" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="24749"></figure><div class="content-caption">CBRC penalty decision</div>I recently wrote about penalties imposed by China's securities regulator, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC).  It has been widely reported by the business and legal press in greater China that China's bank regulator, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) has launched a <a href="http://www.caixinglobal.com/2017-04-17/101079381.html" target="_blank">regulatory frenzy</a> and <a href="http://newscontent.cctv.com/NewJsp/news.jsp?fileId=403998" target="_blank">inspection campaign</a> to crack down on abuses in the banking sector.  The regulator revealed in an announcement on its <a href="http://www.cbrc.gov.cn/chinese/home/docView/4D9893F514B14E0894CA1B85335C7017.html" target="_blank">website</a> early April penalties that it had…

CBRC penalty decisionI recently wrote about penalties imposed by China's securities regulator, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC).  It has been widely reported by the business and legal press in greater China that China's bank regulator, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) has launched a regulatory frenzy and inspection campaign to crack down on abuses in the banking sector.  The regulator revealed in an announcement on its website early April penalties that it had…

China's Bank Regulator Launches Regulatory Campaign

Head of Research at Fusion Wealth Management Ltd

Michael McGaughy

In my research and investing I stress three things: people, structure, and value.  I look for companies that are controlled and managed by quality people, have corporate structures that align minority and majority shareholder interests and trade at valuations that are below fair value if not outright cheap. This note is actually not about any of that and instead just a quick one about bitcoin and how my initial skepticism may have been wrong.  I usually don’t write “macro” or ‘thought pieces’…

In my research and investing I stress three things: people, structure, and value.  I look for companies that are controlled and managed by quality people, have corporate structures that align minority and majority shareholder interests and trade at valuations that are below fair value if not outright cheap. This note is actually not about any of that and instead just a quick one about bitcoin and how my initial skepticism may have been wrong.  I usually don’t write “macro” or ‘thought pieces’…

China

China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd. operates in commercial banking businesses. The Bank provides deposit, loan, settlement, discount, financial bond issuance, government bond underwriting and trading, letter of credit, bank guarantee, and other related financial services.

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China Minsheng Banking H (1988 HK)

HNA: Huge,National, & Aggressive

HNA has grown so Huge it has become a National interest, in our judgment. Its Aggressive acquisitions backed by rising leverage have raised...

Bondcritic

Other Assets May Conceal Bad Loans: China

Other asset growth is surging at China’s banks. It is a line item often associated with assets of limited liquidity, impossible to value, or not...

Daniel Tabbush

High Leverage Property Developer and Rural Bank Stocks in China: Smells Like Trouble?

This time could be DIFFERENT!For years, investors have shorted Chinese property companies due to the excess capacity. Excess capacity is still...

Henry Soediarko

China's Bank Regulator Launches Regulatory Campaign

I recently wrote about penalties imposed by China's securities regulator, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC). It has been widely...

Susan Finder

Bitcoin - The View From Lagos

In my research and investing I stress three things: people, structure, and value. I look for companies that are controlled and managed by quality...

Michael McGaughy

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