Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

It is no easy task generating decent relatively low-risk long-term returns portfolio. Over the last decade I have put a lot of thinking into building such a portfolio. It did involve risk taking and periods of relative volatility. I have found several golden rules, also based on failures of up close experiences from myself and others. My hands down worse investment was not cutting losses in certain names into the 2008 crash – most notably Citigroup shares, some of which I was forcibly locked into owing to management options with false information from HR. GE was another counter I took a beating on in 2008+.But some 2009-09 investment lessons I found mirrored some of my 1987-88 market crash lessons. Over time I have reduced volatility in my portfolio.  My main lesson for my conservative investment style was that buying into the heart of a crash takes quite a bit of time and patience to claw back to break even on average picks.  But in the end I stuck to this value style for increasing positions a number of times over the years. What follows is a no-holds barred account of my rules based investments, and losses and gains which have led to decent long-term performance despite a few scary gaps.The second half of this piece is a dialogue with a global investor friend of 15-20 years.

It is no easy task generating decent relatively low-risk long-term returns portfolio. Over the last decade I have put a lot of thinking into building such a portfolio. It did involve risk taking and periods of relative volatility. I have found several golden rules, also based on failures of up close experiences from myself and others. My hands down worse investment was not cutting losses in certain names into the 2008 crash – most notably Citigroup shares, some of which I was forcibly locked into owing to management options with false information from HR. GE was another counter I took a beating on in 2008+.But some 2009-09 investment lessons I found mirrored some of my 1987-88 market crash lessons. Over time I have reduced volatility in my portfolio.  My main lesson for my conservative investment style was that buying into the heart of a crash takes quite a bit of time and patience to claw back to break even on average picks.  But in the end I stuck to this value style for increasing positions a number of times over the years. What follows is a no-holds barred account of my rules based investments, and losses and gains which have led to decent long-term performance despite a few scary gaps.The second half of this piece is a dialogue with a global investor friend of 15-20 years.

Building a Rules Based Perpetual Portfolio(Incl Global Investor Q & A)

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>JUNE CONTINUED TREND OF NEAR-ZERO THROUGHPUT GROWTH</h2><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15155" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15155:1">China Merchants Port Holdings Company Ltd. (144 HK)</a> recently reported June container throughput figures. The company's Chinese terminals open for at least one year reported throughput growth of just 1.3% YoY last month. Even compared to lackluster Chinese GDP Q2 growth of 6.7%, it's a poor result, but H1 2016 performance was actually worse, with throughput down -1% YoY. In this note we examine the secular trend of slowing growth of Chinese…

JUNE CONTINUED TREND OF NEAR-ZERO THROUGHPUT GROWTHChina Merchants Port Holdings Company Ltd. (144 HK) recently reported June container throughput figures. The company's Chinese terminals open for at least one year reported throughput growth of just 1.3% YoY last month. Even compared to lackluster Chinese GDP Q2 growth of 6.7%, it's a poor result, but H1 2016 performance was actually worse, with throughput down -1% YoY. In this note we examine the secular trend of slowing growth of Chinese…

Is China's Container Traffic Going Ex-Growth? Update on China Merchants Port Holdings 144:HK

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Dry bulk normalisation continues; Tankers trend down in line with our expectations, Introduce Offshore sector<ul><li>Dry bulk stocks impacted by market malaise and company-specific events</li><li>Tide is turning for tanker operators; port sector transitioning to value play</li><li>Rally in offshore stocks could be a dead cat bounce; retracement in oil prices affect gas shipping</li></ul>

Dry bulk normalisation continues; Tankers trend down in line with our expectations, Introduce Offshore sectorDry bulk stocks impacted by market malaise and company-specific eventsTide is turning for tanker operators; port sector transitioning to value playRally in offshore stocks could be a dead cat bounce; retracement in oil prices affect gas shipping

DMER - Maritime Financial Insights -  July 2016

<h2>Container Shipping - 2016 Another Record Likely, This Time on Scrapping</h2>More containership capacity is being demolished than ever before, including old-design ships made redundant by the new Panama Canal.Drewry believes that, for the first time, 450,000teu of containership capacity is expected to be scrapped in just one year, as the containership sector recognises that there are far too many ships chasing too little cargo. Based on an average size of 3,000teu for ships which are being scrapped,…

Container Shipping - 2016 Another Record Likely, This Time on ScrappingMore containership capacity is being demolished than ever before, including old-design ships made redundant by the new Panama Canal.Drewry believes that, for the first time, 450,000teu of containership capacity is expected to be scrapped in just one year, as the containership sector recognises that there are far too many ships chasing too little cargo. Based on an average size of 3,000teu for ships which are being scrapped,…

Container Shipping - 2016 Another Record Likely, This Time on Scrapping

CMHI (144:HK) has released May throughput figures for its network of container terminals, and traffic remains weak. We remain negative on CMHI's fundamentals and retain our HK$18.50 target price.Overall traffic at all CMHI terminals in May grew by an impressive 12.3%, and traffic at Chinese terminals increased by 15%. However, a closer look shows that throughput at terminals open / controlled by CMHI at least a year actually shrank: overall organic throughput fell by -1.1% YoY in May, and at…

CMHI (144:HK) has released May throughput figures for its network of container terminals, and traffic remains weak. We remain negative on CMHI's fundamentals and retain our HK$18.50 target price.Overall traffic at all CMHI terminals in May grew by an impressive 12.3%, and traffic at Chinese terminals increased by 15%. However, a closer look shows that throughput at terminals open / controlled by CMHI at least a year actually shrank: overall organic throughput fell by -1.1% YoY in May, and at…

Hong Kong

China Merchants Holdings International Company Limited, through its subsidiaries and associated companies, operates container and cargo terminals, port transportation, and airport cargo handling.  The Company also manufactures containers, paint, and trailers as well as operates toll road, shipping, property, and dealing securities businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Merchants Port (144 HK)

Building a Rules Based Perpetual Portfolio(Incl Global Investor Q & A)

It is no easy task generating decent relatively low-risk long-term returns portfolio. Over the last decade I have put a lot of thinking into...

Charles De Trenck

Is China's Container Traffic Going Ex-Growth? Update on China Merchants Port Holdings 144:HK

JUNE CONTINUED TREND OF NEAR-ZERO THROUGHPUT GROWTHChina Merchants Port Holdings Company Ltd. (144 HK) recently reported June container throughput...

Daniel Hellberg

DMER - Maritime Financial Insights - July 2016

Dry bulk normalisation continues; Tankers trend down in line with our expectations, Introduce Offshore sector Dry bulk stocks impacted by market...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Container Shipping - 2016 Another Record Likely, This Time on Scrapping

Container Shipping - 2016 Another Record Likely, This Time on ScrappingMore containership capacity is being demolished than ever before, including...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

May Throughput at CMHI Remains Weak

CMHI (144:HK) has released May throughput figures for its network of container terminals, and traffic remains weak. We remain negative on CMHI's...

Daniel Hellberg

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)