Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>
Trump stuns with a comfortable win: Last night Donald Trump won the US presidency, edging out Hillary Clinton in several swing states to secure at least 279 electoral college votes to Clinton's 218 (270 votes are needed to win; results of a few close contests are still being tallied this morning, but they won't change the outcome). Clinton actually won the popular vote by a small margin (estimated 47.6% vs Trump's 47.5% as of Wednesday morning in the US) but badly underperformed expectations in…</li></ul>


Trump stuns with a comfortable win: Last night Donald Trump won the US presidency, edging out Hillary Clinton in several swing states to secure at least 279 electoral college votes to Clinton's 218 (270 votes are needed to win; results of a few close contests are still being tallied this morning, but they won't change the outcome). Clinton actually won the popular vote by a small margin (estimated 47.6% vs Trump's 47.5% as of Wednesday morning in the US) but badly underperformed expectations in…

Trump's Victory, The Danger of Certainty, and an Actionable Idea: Get Short US Int'l Trade Flows

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We have earlier argued that the current M&amp;A in the container shipping industry is about "Survival" and not "Growth". This morning from Japan, <blockquote>Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd., Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd., and Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha have agreed, after the resolution by the board of directors of each company held today, and subject to regulatory approval from the authorities, to establish a new joint-venture company to integrate the container shipping businesses (including worldwide terminal…</blockquote>

We have earlier argued that the current M&amp;A in the container shipping industry is about "Survival" and not "Growth". This morning from Japan, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd., Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd., and Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha have agreed, after the resolution by the board of directors of each company held today, and subject to regulatory approval from the authorities, to establish a new joint-venture company to integrate the container shipping businesses (including worldwide terminal…

Container Shipping - "Survival" M&A In Full Swing, Japanese Big 3 Merge Container Operations

In line with September's macro numbers (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-exports-fall-but-reforms-apace" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:6500">China: Exports Fall but Reforms Apace</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chinese-trade-data-recap-it-isn-t-pretty" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:6443">Chinese Trade Data Recap: It Isn’t Pretty</a>), organic growth reported by the two largest Chinese port operators remained weak last month. In this note we quickly review September throughput numbers for both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15155" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15155:1">China Merchants Port Holdings Company Ltd. (144 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/360" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:360:1">COSCO Pacific Ltd (1199 HK)</a>. We point out that while organic growth at Chinese ports remains weak, the alternative to growing organically (ie, growth via…

In line with September's macro numbers (see China: Exports Fall but Reforms Apace and Chinese Trade Data Recap: It Isn’t Pretty), organic growth reported by the two largest Chinese port operators remained weak last month. In this note we quickly review September throughput numbers for both China Merchants Port Holdings Company Ltd. (144 HK) and COSCO Pacific Ltd (1199 HK). We point out that while organic growth at Chinese ports remains weak, the alternative to growing organically (ie, growth via…

Organic Growth at China Merchants Port, Cosco Shipping Ports Remains Weak. Acquisitions? Expensive!

Strong supply growth on account of high vessel deliveriesscheduled in FY16/FY17 will continue to keep the LPG shipping market in imbalance. On the demand side, with lower price of LPG in Asia, the propane trade has been hurt, and there has been no major driver of incremental demand to absorb the excess tonnage available. Freight rates across segments have dropped in the recent past, and we do not expect a meaningful recovery over the next 12 months, even thoughthere could be a short-lived…

Strong supply growth on account of high vessel deliveriesscheduled in FY16/FY17 will continue to keep the LPG shipping market in imbalance. On the demand side, with lower price of LPG in Asia, the propane trade has been hurt, and there has been no major driver of incremental demand to absorb the excess tonnage available. Freight rates across segments have dropped in the recent past, and we do not expect a meaningful recovery over the next 12 months, even thoughthere could be a short-lived…

DMER - LPG Shipping - Headwinds to Persist in FY17

In our earlier updates we looked at the macros of the Chinese port operators and key regional developments, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dmer-chinese-port-operators-avoid-bottom-fishing-in-troubled-waters" target="_blank">https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dmer-chinese-port-operators-avoid-bottom-fishing-in-troubled-waters</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dmer-chinese-port-operators-2-0-pearl-river-delta-yangtze-river-delta-and-bohai-rim-hk-update" target="_blank">https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dmer-chinese-port-operators-2-0-pearl-river-delta-yangtze-river-delta-and-bohai-rim-hk-update</a>. In this last update we look at the individual listed operators. <ul><li>Current valuations of Chinese operators are slow to reflect weak earnings, while the market has downshifted valuations of non-Chinese peers. Chinese operators stand to weaken further when deteriorating earnings momentum becomes apparent in upcoming results.</li><li>Chinese operators have improved their net gearing profiles in the past six months, adopting a more cautious approach to the balance sheet leveraging. With parental support and connection with strong affiliates, none of the Chinese operators falls under the High investment risk category. </li></ul>

In our earlier updates we looked at the macros of the Chinese port operators and key regional developments, https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dmer-chinese-port-operators-avoid-bottom-fishing-in-troubled-waters, https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dmer-chinese-port-operators-2-0-pearl-river-delta-yangtze-river-delta-and-bohai-rim-hk-update. In this last update we look at the individual listed operators. Current valuations of Chinese operators are slow to reflect weak earnings, while the market has downshifted valuations of non-Chinese peers. Chinese operators stand to weaken further when deteriorating earnings momentum becomes apparent in upcoming results.Chinese operators have improved their net gearing profiles in the past six months, adopting a more cautious approach to the balance sheet leveraging. With parental support and connection with strong affiliates, none of the Chinese operators falls under the High investment risk category. 

DMER - Chinese Port Operators 3.0 -Cosco Shipping Ports Our Top Pick, Dalian Port Least Favoured

Hong Kong

China Merchants Holdings International Company Limited, through its subsidiaries and associated companies, operates container and cargo terminals, port transportation, and airport cargo handling.  The Company also manufactures containers, paint, and trailers as well as operates toll road, shipping, property, and dealing securities businesses.

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China Merchants Port (144 HK)

Trump's Victory, The Danger of Certainty, and an Actionable Idea: Get Short US Int'l Trade Flows

Trump stuns with a comfortable win: Last night Donald Trump won the US presidency, edging out Hillary Clinton in several swing states to secure...

Daniel Hellberg

Container Shipping - "Survival" M&A In Full Swing, Japanese Big 3 Merge Container Operations

We have earlier argued that the current M&A in the container shipping industry is about "Survival" and not "Growth". This morning from...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Organic Growth at China Merchants Port, Cosco Shipping Ports Remains Weak. Acquisitions? Expensive!

In line with September's macro numbers (see China: Exports Fall but Reforms Apace and Chinese Trade Data Recap: It Isn’t Pretty), organic growth...

Daniel Hellberg

DMER - LPG Shipping - Headwinds to Persist in FY17

Strong supply growth on account of high vessel deliveriesscheduled in FY16/FY17 will continue to keep the LPG shipping market in imbalance. On the...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

DMER - Chinese Port Operators 3.0 -Cosco Shipping Ports Our Top Pick, Dalian Port Least Favoured

In our earlier updates we looked at the macros of the Chinese port operators and key regional developments,...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

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