Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

<p><strong>Executive Sum</strong><strong>mary:</strong>  A flattening US interest rate yield curve changed the dynamics for credit investors for most of the month of April, in complete contrast to how interest rates behaved in March. The narrative changed to one that was Treasury bond supportive, and this supported shorter-duration securities. Meanwhile yield curve flattening pushed credit spreads in the opposite direction longer out the curve.</p><p>The sweet spot for total return investors moved dramatically. Investors that were positioned in higher duration bonds witnessed underperformance on a total return basis. Meanwhile, investors in lower duration bonds outperformed on a total return basis. However, as the month ended, we began to witness a return of the reflation trade with US interest rates ending the month on an upswing. May could see a repeat of March’s carry-trade performance.</p><p>From a pure credit spread perspective, ignoring movements in the risk-free rate, Asia’s bank bonds had a mixed performance with one-third of the +100 bonds that we track widening during the month. Vaccine versus virus concerns led to lower economic growth projections by the market than seen in the prior month. Expectations for an unsynchronized global recovery also factored. Taken together, this would delay the much needed catch-up in credit fundamentals to match the monetary accommodation driven spread compression over the last year. As such, bond spread tightening was less ebullient while widening lessened the amount of fundamental performance needed to justify lofty spread levels.</p>

Executive Summary:  A flattening US interest rate yield curve changed the dynamics for credit investors for most of the month of April, in complete contrast to how interest rates behaved in March. The narrative changed to one that was Treasury bond supportive, and this supported shorter-duration securities. Meanwhile yield curve flattening pushed credit spreads in the opposite direction longer out the curve.The sweet spot for total return investors moved dramatically. Investors that were positioned in higher duration bonds witnessed underperformance on a total return basis. Meanwhile, investors in lower duration bonds outperformed on a total return basis. However, as the month ended, we began to witness a return of the reflation trade with US interest rates ending the month on an upswing. May could see a repeat of March’s carry-trade performance.From a pure credit spread perspective, ignoring movements in the risk-free rate, Asia’s bank bonds had a mixed performance with one-third of the +100 bonds that we track widening during the month. Vaccine versus virus concerns led to lower economic growth projections by the market than seen in the prior month. Expectations for an unsynchronized global recovery also factored. Taken together, this would delay the much needed catch-up in credit fundamentals to match the monetary accommodation driven spread compression over the last year. As such, bond spread tightening was less ebullient while widening lessened the amount of fundamental performance needed to justify lofty spread levels.

Bank Credit Compass: Total Return Sweet Spot Moves, but May Rebound

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd-3388a037-4214-4997-b45d-520518cfdb57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec-co-ltd-bf4a1265-beef-48b6-b82d-29308426030f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1" rel="noopener">WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (2359 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical (2382 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-securities-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:463:1" rel="noopener">Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in the Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Real Estate sectors, and decreased in the Financials, Industrials, and Information Technology sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anritsu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3700:1" rel="noopener">Anritsu Corp (6754 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daito-trust-construct-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10503:1" rel="noopener">Daito Trust Construct (1878 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jfe-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:210:1" rel="noopener">JFE Holdings (5411 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyu-fudosan-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8355:1" rel="noopener">Tokyu Fudosan Holdings (3289 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ana-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5308:1" rel="noopener">Ana Holdings (9202 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h-i-s-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19311:1" rel="noopener">H I S Co Ltd (9603 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/euglena-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8414:1" rel="noopener">Euglena Co Ltd (2931 JP)</a>. Shorts increased in the Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary sectors, and decreased in the Industrials sector.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a> during the week while decreasing on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Heavy Industries (009540 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-infracore-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3982:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Infracore (042670 KS)</a>. The short sell ban has ended today and short selling will be permitted on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a> constituents from Monday, 3 May.</p></div><div><p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-development-financial" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13818:1" rel="noopener">China Development Financial (2883 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yang-ming-marine-transport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8502:1" rel="noopener">Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walsin-lihwa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17142:1" rel="noopener">Walsin Lihwa (1605 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/compal-electronics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4620:1" rel="noopener">Compal Electronics (2324 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/au-optronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6704:1" rel="noopener">AU Optronics (2409 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/winbond-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9177:1" rel="noopener">Winbond Electronics (2344 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asmedia-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15732:1" rel="noopener">Asmedia Technology (5269 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genius-electronic-optical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9632:1" rel="noopener">Genius Electronic Optical (3406 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a>.</p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK), WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (2359 HK) and Sunny Optical (2382 HK) while there was short covering on Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Baidu (9888 HK), Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK) and Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK). Shorts increased in the Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Real Estate sectors, and decreased in the Financials, Industrials, and Information Technology sectors.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Lasertec Corp (6920 JP), Anritsu Corp (6754 JP), Daito Trust Construct (1878 JP), JFE Holdings (5411 JP) and Tokyu Fudosan Holdings (3289 JP) while shorts decreased on Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Ana Holdings (9202 JP), H I S Co Ltd (9603 JP), Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) and Euglena Co Ltd (2931 JP). Shorts increased in the Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary sectors, and decreased in the Industrials sector.In Korea, shorts increased on Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) and Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS) during the week while decreasing on Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Hyundai Heavy Industries (009540 KS) and Doosan Infracore (042670 KS). The short sell ban has ended today and short selling will be permitted on Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) and KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) constituents from Monday, 3 May.Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were China Development Financial (2883 TT), Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT), Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT), Walsin Lihwa (1605 TT) and Compal Electronics (2324 TT) while shorts were covered on AU Optronics (2409 TT), Winbond Electronics (2344 TT), Asmedia Technology (5269 TT), Genius Electronic Optical (3406 TT) and Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT).

Asia Shorts: Tencent, CM Bank, Wuxi Apptec, Baidu, Anritsu, Daito, Ana, Yang Ming, Evergreen Marine

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Allocations in the Financials sector have broken below the decade long range.  In their place are increased exposures in Technology and Consumer Discretionary companies.  At the moment, allocations within the sector are consolidating, with Asia Ex-Japan funds actively increasing weights, but still remaining a long way below previous levels. </p><p>In this analysis, we look at the mechanics of the downturn, identifying the countries and stocks hardest hit.  We then look at the extent to which Financials stocks have consolidated and moved towards the early stages of a recovery.</p>

Allocations in the Financials sector have broken below the decade long range.  In their place are increased exposures in Technology and Consumer Discretionary companies.  At the moment, allocations within the sector are consolidating, with Asia Ex-Japan funds actively increasing weights, but still remaining a long way below previous levels. In this analysis, we look at the mechanics of the downturn, identifying the countries and stocks hardest hit.  We then look at the extent to which Financials stocks have consolidated and moved towards the early stages of a recovery.

Asia Ex-Japan Financials.  Slowly Regaining the Faith.

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

China Merchants Bank H / Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong><em>*Good 1Q21 Bottom-Line:</em></strong> China Merchants Bank (3968.HK) [CMB] reported 1Q21 results of CNY 32.0 bn, increasing CNY 11.3 bn (54.4%) linked quarter. Results were driven by net interest income improvement; robust fee growth; and an operating expense reduction; and </p><p><strong><em>*Credit Wall Continues To Grow:</em></strong> Net new problem loans continue to accelerate at an Indian bank pace of CNY 18.9 bn or 138.5% on an annualized basis, accelerating form the 04.7% growth rate posted in 4Q20. Provided (and its not a stretch) that the net new NPL ratio trajectory holds, reserve cover of NPLs will drop to 184% - suggesting that even the mighty are falling. </p>

*Good 1Q21 Bottom-Line: China Merchants Bank (3968.HK) [CMB] reported 1Q21 results of CNY 32.0 bn, increasing CNY 11.3 bn (54.4%) linked quarter. Results were driven by net interest income improvement; robust fee growth; and an operating expense reduction; and *Credit Wall Continues To Grow: Net new problem loans continue to accelerate at an Indian bank pace of CNY 18.9 bn or 138.5% on an annualized basis, accelerating form the 04.7% growth rate posted in 4Q20. Provided (and its not a stretch) that the net new NPL ratio trajectory holds, reserve cover of NPLs will drop to 184% - suggesting that even the mighty are falling. 

China Merchants Bank – Pig Still In Python

<p><strong><em>*Many Moving Parts: </em></strong>Ping An Bank (000001.CH) [PAB], the Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] banking subsidiary, remains challenged. For 1Q21, PAB reported results of CNY 10.1 bn – increasing CNY 3.6 bn (55.2%) on a linked quarter basis. Revenues, however, did increase CNY 4.8 bn (13.0%), much of which, in our view, can likely be attributed to gains while operating expenses contracted CNY 802 mn or 6.2% over the period; and</p><p><strong><em>*Credit Seeing Improvement: </em></strong>By our analysis, we find that credit weakness continues to occur as net new NPLs have increased CNY 4.2 bn or 53.6% on an annualized basis. In fairness, however, this is far better than the CNY 20.5 bn or a massive 241% (223% in 3Q20) increase on an annualized basis. Assuming the credit break in the PAB portfolio continues to remain at the current improved level, we find that PAB’s reserves still remain quite light by CNY 19 bn if we assume a 2x NPL ratio. This shortfall represents 6% of stated equity.  </p>

*Many Moving Parts: Ping An Bank (000001.CH) [PAB], the Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] banking subsidiary, remains challenged. For 1Q21, PAB reported results of CNY 10.1 bn – increasing CNY 3.6 bn (55.2%) on a linked quarter basis. Revenues, however, did increase CNY 4.8 bn (13.0%), much of which, in our view, can likely be attributed to gains while operating expenses contracted CNY 802 mn or 6.2% over the period; and*Credit Seeing Improvement: By our analysis, we find that credit weakness continues to occur as net new NPLs have increased CNY 4.2 bn or 53.6% on an annualized basis. In fairness, however, this is far better than the CNY 20.5 bn or a massive 241% (223% in 3Q20) increase on an annualized basis. Assuming the credit break in the PAB portfolio continues to remain at the current improved level, we find that PAB’s reserves still remain quite light by CNY 19 bn if we assume a 2x NPL ratio. This shortfall represents 6% of stated equity.  

China

China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. operates as a commercial bank. The Company provides deposits, loans, wealth management, asset custody, finance leasing, investment banking, and other banking services. China Merchants Bank conducts businesses domestically and internationally.

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China Merchants Bank A (600036 CH)

Bank Credit Compass: Total Return Sweet Spot Moves, but May Rebound

The sweet spot for total return investors moved dramatically in April. However, as the month ended, the reflation trade returned. May could see a...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Asia Shorts: Tencent, CM Bank, Wuxi Apptec, Baidu, Anritsu, Daito, Ana, Yang Ming, Evergreen Marine

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

Asia Ex-Japan Financials. Slowly Regaining the Faith.

Active Asia Ex-Japan managers move back in to the Financials sector after a period of heavy rotation, however allocations remain well below...

Steven Holden

China Merchants Bank – Pig Still In Python

CHINA MERCHANTS BANK: CMB reported a 1Q21 QOQ results increase of 54.4% driven by net interest income; fee growth; and lower expenses. Net new...

Thomas J. Monaco

Ping An Insurance – Sea Change At Bank

PING AN INSURANCE: PAB reported a 55.2% QOQ improvement in results. Net new NPLs have increased 53.6% on an annualized basis - far better than the...

Thomas J. Monaco

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