Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Hongqiao, Adani Green Energy, Fosun International</li>
<li>In the US, the final services PMI for December 2024 edged up to 56.8 (56.1 p), while the composite PMI rose to 55.4 (54.9 p). Separately in November, factory orders declined 0.4% (-0.3% e / 0.5% revised p), and the final durable goods orders fell 1.2% (-0.5% e / -1.1% p).</li>
<li>Long-end treasury yields climbed, with the UST curve bear-steepening after a weak auction of 3Y notes and amid a large supply of US corporate bond issuances.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Hongqiao, Adani Green Energy, Fosun International
In the US, the final services PMI for December 2024 edged up to 56.8 (56.1 p), while the composite PMI rose to 55.4 (54.9 p). Separately in November, factory orders declined 0.4% (-0.3% e / 0.5% revised p), and the final durable goods orders fell 1.2% (-0.5% e / -1.1% p).
Long-end treasury yields climbed, with the UST curve bear-steepening after a weak auction of 3Y notes and amid a large supply of US corporate bond issuances.


<ul>
<li>This morning, China Hongqiao held a roadshow to market USD benchmark-sized three-year RegS bonds.</li>
<li>The expected issuance size is USD 300-400 mn (capped at USD 400 mn).</li>
<li>The order book is reported at USD 2 bn (including USD 395 mn interest from the 15 joint global coordinators).</li>
</ul>


This morning, China Hongqiao held a roadshow to market USD benchmark-sized three-year RegS bonds.
The expected issuance size is USD 300-400 mn (capped at USD 400 mn).
The order book is reported at USD 2 bn (including USD 395 mn interest from the 15 joint global coordinators).


China Hongqiao - Event Flash - Roadshowing USD 3Y Regs Notes - Lucror Analytics

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We believe aluminum (Al) is one of the sectors that is highly sensitive to the launch of the series of forceful pro-market policies in China.</li><li>This, together with the weakness of dollar as a results of the start of rate-cut cycle in the US and a relatively limited new supply of Al, will likely boost the near-term Al price which will serve as key catalyst of Hongqiao.</li><li>We revise up our 2024E-26E earnings forecast by 9-12%, largely due to higher price assumption of Al and alumina. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We believe aluminum (Al) is one of the sectors that is highly sensitive to the launch of the series of forceful pro-market policies in China.This, together with the weakness of dollar as a results of the start of rate-cut cycle in the US and a relatively limited new supply of Al, will likely boost the near-term Al price which will serve as key catalyst of Hongqiao.We revise up our 2024E-26E earnings forecast by 9-12%, largely due to higher price assumption of Al and alumina. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Hongqiao (1378 HK) - Expect Higher ASP Following China’s Stimulus

Global Head of Research & Head of Europe, Lucror Analytics

Felix Fischer

Global Head of Research & Head of Europe

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/biocon-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Biocon Ltd</a></li><li><a href='/entities/yankuang-energy-group' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Yankuang Energy Group</a></li><li><a href='/entities/wynn-macau-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Wynn Macau Ltd</a></li><li><a href='/entities/rakuten-group-inc' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Rakuten</a></li><li><a href='/entities/china-jinmao-holdings-group' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China Jinmao Holdings</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Biocon LtdYankuang Energy GroupWynn Macau LtdRakutenChina Jinmao Holdingsand more...

Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-1909'>China Hongqiao</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-40020'>Continuum Green Energy</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.China HongqiaoContinuum Green Energy

Morning Views Asia: China Hongqiao, Continuum Green Energy

China

China Hongqiao Group Ltd. manufactures aluminum products. The Company's aluminum products consist of molten aluminum alloy, aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum busbars.

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China Hongqiao (1378 HK)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Hongqiao, Adani Green Energy, Fosun...

Lucror Analytics

China Hongqiao - Event Flash - Roadshowing USD 3Y Regs Notes - Lucror Analytics

This morning, China Hongqiao held a roadshow to market USD benchmark-sized three-year RegS bonds. The expected issuance size is USD 300-400 mn...

Lucror Analytics