Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The record low birth rate highlights the fact that China will slide to no.2 in terms of population, which may slow its race to take the economic top spot.</li>
<li>China’s property market is experiencing a period of unprecedented weakness, the result of policies implemented by Beijing to rein in developers' leverage.</li>
<li>China’s tightened regulation of video gaming content will be as harsh as its control of films and television shows.</li>
</ul>


The record low birth rate highlights the fact that China will slide to no.2 in terms of population, which may slow its race to take the economic top spot.
China’s property market is experiencing a period of unprecedented weakness, the result of policies implemented by Beijing to rein in developers' leverage.
China’s tightened regulation of video gaming content will be as harsh as its control of films and television shows.


Birthing/ Housing/ Gaming/ Shipping/ Daring

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<p>Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.</p>In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/tata-motors-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Tata Motors Ltd</a></li><li><a href='/entities/anton-oilfield-services-gp' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Anton Oilfield</a></li><li><a href='/entities/china-south-city-holdings' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China South City</a></li><li><a href='/entities/panda-green-energy-group-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Panda Green</a></li><li><a href='/entities/gcl-new-energy-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Gcl New Energy Holdings</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Tata Motors LtdAnton OilfieldChina South CityPanda GreenGcl New Energy Holdingsand more...

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinese-estates-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20954:1" rel="noopener">Chinese Estates Holdings (127 HK)</a> has despatched the scheme document. The offeror will offer HK$4.00 per scheme share. The scheme meeting is scheduled for 9:30 am on 17 December.</li>
<li>Unsurprisingly, the IFA considers the offer to be fair and reasonable. We think that the IFA analysis of historical share prices and privatisation precedents is flawed. </li>
<li>As no shareholder holds a blocking stake, the bid will likely succeed. At last close, the shares trade at a gross spread of 6.4% to the offer price. </li>
</ul>



Chinese Estates Holdings (127 HK) has despatched the scheme document. The offeror will offer HK$4.00 per scheme share. The scheme meeting is scheduled for 9:30 am on 17 December.
Unsurprisingly, the IFA considers the offer to be fair and reasonable. We think that the IFA analysis of historical share prices and privatisation precedents is flawed. 
As no shareholder holds a blocking stake, the bid will likely succeed. At last close, the shares trade at a gross spread of 6.4% to the offer price. 


Chinese Estates’ Scheme Document, IFA Opinion

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The Scheme Document for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinese-estates-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20954:1" rel="noopener">Chinese Estates Holdings (127 HK)</a> has been <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/1123/2021112301050.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dispatched</a>. The Scheme Meeting will take place on the 17 December. </li>
<li>Founder, Joseph Lau, and his wife Chan Hoi Wan, who control 74.99% of shares out, are offering HK$4.00/share for Chinese Estates, a leading property developer in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>The Independent Financial Adviser (Gram Capital) considers the Scheme to be fair and reasonable. Assuming the Scheme gets up, payment is on or before the 19 January 2022.</li>
</ul>


The Scheme Document for Chinese Estates Holdings (127 HK) has been dispatched. The Scheme Meeting will take place on the 17 December. 
Founder, Joseph Lau, and his wife Chan Hoi Wan, who control 74.99% of shares out, are offering HK$4.00/share for Chinese Estates, a leading property developer in Hong Kong.
The Independent Financial Adviser (Gram Capital) considers the Scheme to be fair and reasonable. Assuming the Scheme gets up, payment is on or before the 19 January 2022.


Chinese Estates (127 HK): Scheme Doc Out. Meeting on 17 December

Research from EqualOcean, EqualOcean

EqualOcean

Research from EqualOcean

EqualOcean is an investment research firm and information service provider focusing on China's Technology, Automotive and Consumer Internet sectors. With unique research and due diligence methodology, we provide tailored insights into a wide range of industries and companies, empowering our clients' value-added decisions.

Founded in 2014, EqualOcean is headquartered in Beijing and has offices in Shanghai, Shenzhen and New York.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Behind the empty cities - China has accumulated enough empty housing, over 65 million units, for almost the entire population of France.</li><li>What's next? - Real estate is no longer the main growth driver in China.</li><li>A proper foundation: starting with 'ghost cities' - Ordos City, once the largest ghost city in China, relied mainly on its coal and manufacture industry.</li></ul>

Behind the empty cities - China has accumulated enough empty housing, over 65 million units, for almost the entire population of France.What's next? - Real estate is no longer the main growth driver in China.A proper foundation: starting with 'ghost cities' - Ordos City, once the largest ghost city in China, relied mainly on its coal and manufacture industry.

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

Birthing/ Housing/ Gaming/ Shipping/ Daring

In my weekly digest, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and...

Diana Choyleva

Weekly Wrap - 26 Nov 2021

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

Chinese Estates’ Scheme Document, IFA Opinion

The scheme meeting is on 17 December. IFA considers the HK$4 per share offer to be fair and reasonable. At last close, the shares trade at a gross...

Arun George

Chinese Estates (127 HK): Scheme Doc Out. Meeting on 17 December

A gross/annualised spread 8.1%/66.2% is not unattractive. But I'd expect pushback due to low liquidity and heading into year-end.

David Blennerhassett

An Industry Built on Debt

Real estate has long been the stimulus behind China's rapid economic development. House-buying became an investment as prices soared, thus...

EqualOcean

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