Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 25-31 August 2023

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The electric-vehicle unit of defaulted property developer China Evergrande Group reported that in the first half of 2023 it delivered 760 cars and its net loss narrowed by almost half from a year earlier to 6.87 billion yuan ($942 million).</li><li>China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group Ltd.’s revenue jumped more than fivefold to 155 million yuan, mainly from mass production and delivery of its flagship model, the Hengchi 5, starting last October.</li><li>The electric-car company has been plagued by production delays and setbacks since touting its first Hengchi model as early as 2019 and pledging to rival Tesla within three to five years.</li></ul>

The electric-vehicle unit of defaulted property developer China Evergrande Group reported that in the first half of 2023 it delivered 760 cars and its net loss narrowed by almost half from a year earlier to 6.87 billion yuan ($942 million).China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group Ltd.’s revenue jumped more than fivefold to 155 million yuan, mainly from mass production and delivery of its flagship model, the Hengchi 5, starting last October.The electric-car company has been plagued by production delays and setbacks since touting its first Hengchi model as early as 2019 and pledging to rival Tesla within three to five years.

Evergrande EV Unit Reports Vehicle Deliveries and Narrower Loss

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Offshore wind /In Depth: China’s offshore wind sector gears up for life after subsidies</li><li>Taiwan /Analysis: Foxconn founder’s independent leadership bid complicates Taiwan opposition efforts</li><li>Corruption /: Ex-provincial chief, once in charge of China’s medical reform, caught in corruption probe</li></ul>

Offshore wind /In Depth: China’s offshore wind sector gears up for life after subsidiesTaiwan /Analysis: Foxconn founder’s independent leadership bid complicates Taiwan opposition effortsCorruption /: Ex-provincial chief, once in charge of China’s medical reform, caught in corruption probe

CX Daily: China’s Offshore Wind Sector Gears Up for Life After Subsidies

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

China Merchants Bank A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>New results detail from CMB shows divergence with credit quality and actual credit costs</li>
<li>The bank saw its credit costs decline 25% YoY despite higher Loss and Doubtful Loans YoY</li>
<li>Property development NPLs surged from 4.1% to 5.5% at 1H23 HoH, to RMB19.6bn in total</li>
</ul>


New results detail from CMB shows divergence with credit quality and actual credit costs
The bank saw its credit costs decline 25% YoY despite higher Loss and Doubtful Loans YoY
Property development NPLs surged from 4.1% to 5.5% at 1H23 HoH, to RMB19.6bn in total


China Merchants Bank - New Results: Property Dev. NPLs at 5.5% from 4.1%...  25% Lower Credit Costs

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>A new policy easing focused on homebuyers was released, building on July announcements, and now an option for all cities</li>
<li>More homebuyers will be able to get preferential terms for mortgages as first-time buyers</li>
<li>A joint notice from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the People's Bank of China, and the State Administration of Financial Supervision</li>
</ul>


A new policy easing focused on homebuyers was released, building on July announcements, and now an option for all cities
More homebuyers will be able to get preferential terms for mortgages as first-time buyers
A joint notice from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the People's Bank of China, and the State Administration of Financial Supervision


China Property: Policy Announcement Alert

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

Price Gauge
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Evergrande (3333 HK)

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 25-31 August 2023

A curated selection of Chinese news for developers in distress, including deals, updates, project progress, and market commentaries.

Robert Ciemniak

Evergrande EV Unit Reports Vehicle Deliveries and Narrower Loss

The electric-vehicle unit of defaulted property developer China Evergrande Group reported that in the first half of 2023 it delivered 760 cars and...

Caixin Global

CX Daily: China’s Offshore Wind Sector Gears Up for Life After Subsidies

Offshore wind /In Depth: China’s offshore wind sector gears up for life after subsidies Taiwan /Analysis: Foxconn founder’s independent leadership...

Caixin Global

China Merchants Bank - New Results: Property Dev. NPLs at 5.5% from 4.1%... 25% Lower Credit Costs

CMB shows surging property development NPLs, and overdue loans by 1-3 years, which is completely at odds with its 25% lower provision expenses in...

Daniel Tabbush

China Property: Policy Announcement Alert

China property: A new policy easing focused on homebuyers was released, building on July announcements, and now an option for all cities.

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 25-31 August 2023

​A curated selection of Chinese news for developers in distress, including deals, updates, project progress, and market commentaries.

Robert Ciemniak

Evergrande EV Unit Reports Vehicle Deliveries and Narrower Loss

The electric-vehicle unit of defaulted property developer China Evergrande Group reported that in the first half of 2023 it delivered 760 cars and...

Caixin Global

CX Daily: China’s Offshore Wind Sector Gears Up for Life After Subsidies

Offshore wind /In Depth: China’s offshore wind sector gears up for life after subsidies Taiwan /Analysis: Foxconn founder’s independent leadership...

Caixin Global

China Merchants Bank - New Results: Property Dev. NPLs at 5.5% from 4.1%... 25% Lower Credit Costs

CMB shows surging property development NPLs, and overdue loans by 1-3 years, which is completely at odds with its 25% lower provision expenses in...

Daniel Tabbush

China Property: Policy Announcement Alert

China property: A new policy easing focused on homebuyers was released, building on July announcements, and now an option for all cities.

Robert Ciemniak

A curated selection of Chinese news for developers in distress, including deals, updates, project progress, and market commentaries.