Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar. 

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 31 Oct 2018

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Equity Bottom-Up

The collapse in the stock market and fear of a potential property tax  have negatively impacted the sentiment of high-net-worth Chinese investors.  We highlight key risks in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13585" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13585:1">Noah Holdings Ltd Spon Ads (NOAH US)</a>, a leading specialist in the private banking industry in China.  We are reducing our price target to from $55-60 (October 19, 2017) to $30-35 per share, reflecting amplified macro risks, as well as reduced company specific earnings growth. While the former is mostly in ~47% decline in stock price from $68 peak this May, we fear that the latter yet need to be shown in the financials over the next few quarters.

The collapse in the stock market and fear of a potential property tax  have negatively impacted the sentiment of high-net-worth Chinese investors.  We highlight key risks in Noah Holdings Ltd Spon Ads (NOAH US), a leading specialist in the private banking industry in China.  We are reducing our price target to from $55-60 (October 19, 2017) to $30-35 per share, reflecting amplified macro risks, as well as reduced company specific earnings growth. While the former is mostly in ~47% decline in stock price from $68 peak this May, we fear that the latter yet need to be shown in the financials over the next few quarters.

China's Stock Market Liquidity Crisis Poses Key Risks to Private Banking Industry

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

New home sales price and volume data for September released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) last Friday and Saturday shows the average house price growth for 70 major cities is slowing month-on-month but still accelerating year-on-year. New home sales volumes growth in gross floor area was only slightly slower year-to-date year-on-year. The private weekly October data points at a much slower growth ahead.

New home sales price and volume data for September released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) last Friday and Saturday shows the average house price growth for 70 major cities is slowing month-on-month but still accelerating year-on-year. New home sales volumes growth in gross floor area was only slightly slower year-to-date year-on-year. The private weekly October data points at a much slower growth ahead.

China Housing: September Price And Volume Data Still Strong But Expect Weaker October

In our 4th annual China Districts report, we identify the districts and counties with the most likely upside potential for the local housing markets, based on the patterns of growth in sales volumes and average prices, overlaid with qualitative factors. The predictions from a year ago have proven to be highly accurate. We also look at the overall patterns for more macro insights.

In our 4th annual China Districts report, we identify the districts and counties with the most likely upside potential for the local housing markets, based on the patterns of growth in sales volumes and average prices, overlaid with qualitative factors. The predictions from a year ago have proven to be highly accurate. We also look at the overall patterns for more macro insights.

China Housing: 4th Annual China Districts Report - Top Picks For The Next 1-2 Years (Highlights)

In this Weekly Sales note, we analyze the weekly sales volume data (in Gross Floor Area) for 12 major (4 Tier-1, 8 Tier-2) cities with consistent data to October 7. The 4-week y/y growth turned negative, in contrast to the trend over the prior months, driven by the Tier-2 cities, while the Tier-1 maintained positive growth.

In this Weekly Sales note, we analyze the weekly sales volume data (in Gross Floor Area) for 12 major (4 Tier-1, 8 Tier-2) cities with consistent data to October 7. The 4-week y/y growth turned negative, in contrast to the trend over the prior months, driven by the Tier-2 cities, while the Tier-1 maintained positive growth.

China Housing: Weekly (To October 7th) Sales Data Points At A Slowdown In Tier-2 Cities

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 31 Oct 2018

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

China's Stock Market Liquidity Crisis Poses Key Risks to Private Banking Industry

The collapse in the stock market and fear of a potential property tax have negatively impacted the sentiment of high-net-worth Chinese investors. ...

JL Warren Capital

China Housing: September Price And Volume Data Still Strong But Expect Weaker October

New home sales price and volume data for September released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) last Friday and Saturday shows the average...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: 4th Annual China Districts Report - Top Picks For The Next 1-2 Years (Highlights)

In our 4th annual China Districts report, we identify the districts and counties with the most likely upside potential for the local housing...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: Weekly (To October 7th) Sales Data Points At A Slowdown In Tier-2 Cities

In this Weekly Sales note, we analyze the weekly sales volume data (in Gross Floor Area) for 12 major (4 Tier-1, 8 Tier-2) cities with consistent...

Robert Ciemniak

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