Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The March data released today by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows the market for new home sales continues slowing down very gradually in terms of volumes. More significantly, the past 2 months saw declines in land sales (land acquisitions by developers) on a year-to-date and 3-month year-on-year basis, which could potentially indicate a sharp change of the trend from 2018. This early signal is based off only 2 data points, though. Historically, land sales have been a strong predictor of future price growth (with a long lag) - as the most basic measure of supply.

The March data released today by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows the market for new home sales continues slowing down very gradually in terms of volumes. More significantly, the past 2 months saw declines in land sales (land acquisitions by developers) on a year-to-date and 3-month year-on-year basis, which could potentially indicate a sharp change of the trend from 2018. This early signal is based off only 2 data points, though. Historically, land sales have been a strong predictor of future price growth (with a long lag) - as the most basic measure of supply. 

Today's China Housing Data: Potentially A Major Signal From The Decline In Land Sales

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar. 

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 16 Apr 2019

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

<h2>Executive summary</h2>
We launch our inaugural joint policy research on China’s Greater Bay Area (GBA) with the assistance from Joy Rich Securities Investment’s Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area Academic Research Group. Here we highlight what comprises GBA, timeline, comparison against major economies and other bay areas, deep-dive research into key industries and policies toward each part of GBA. China is a Policy-induced story and GBA is in the Chinese government’s interest to prosper.
We believe the composition of 9 cities and 2 special administrative regions, together with policy support by the Chinese government provides a backdrop for rising credit growth backed by productivity. We will continue to monitor credits which either are based in GBA or will benefit from the GBA scheme (EXHIBIT 9).

Executive summary
We launch our inaugural joint policy research on China’s Greater Bay Area (GBA) with the assistance from Joy Rich Securities Investment’s Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area Academic Research Group. Here we highlight what comprises GBA, timeline, comparison against major economies and other bay areas, deep-dive research into key industries and policies toward each part of GBA. China is a Policy-induced story and GBA is in the Chinese government’s interest to prosper.
We believe the composition of 9 cities and 2 special administrative regions, together with policy support by the Chinese government provides a backdrop for rising credit growth backed by productivity. We will continue to monitor credits which either are based in GBA or will benefit from the GBA scheme (EXHIBIT 9). 

China’s Greater Bay Area: The Essential

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 09 Apr 2019

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 03 Apr 2019

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

Today's China Housing Data: Potentially A Major Signal From The Decline In Land Sales

The March data released today by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows the market for new home sales continues slowing down very...

Robert Ciemniak

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 16 Apr 2019

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

China’s Greater Bay Area: The Essential

Executive summary We launch our inaugural joint policy research on China’s Greater Bay Area (GBA) with the assistance from Joy Rich Securities...

Bondcritic

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 09 Apr 2019

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 03 Apr 2019

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

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