Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

Asia’s Additional Tier 1 bonds underperformed as investors shifted into High Yield and X-over rated Senior Unsecured notes. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-real-estate-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">China Evergrande Group's (3333 HK)</a> attempts to restore investor confidence disappointed and negatively impacted risk sentiment. China’s US$6 billion in issuance also likely absorbed excess US$ liquidity, despite the low yields on offer.   US high yield markets continued to outperform Asia’s, and the relative outperformance of the US versus Asia resulted in continued high yield index spread decompression. Asia’s recent index widening appears to be Evergrande driven and a reduction in this company’s financial distress could have a materially positive impact on Asia’s HY index.In rate markets, US Treasury curve steepening paused as investors digested negative stimulus, vaccine, and Covid-19 news in Europe. US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin affirmed market sentiment that a stimulus package was unlikely to be agreed before the November 3 election. The reaction was limited by expectations that a stimulus agreement will be agreed at some point before the end of the winter. Nonetheless, short-term interest rate futures fell slightly as expectations of increased near-term monetary accommodation combined with limited near-term stimulus growth to lower rising rate expectations.In US equity markets, November futures on the Chicago Board of Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) were unchanged week-on-week as election result outcomes continued to point to a less contentious result than anticipated a few weeks ago. Meanwhile the spot VIX Index rose 2 index points on slightly higher perceived downside risks from rising Coronavirus cases in Europe as well as setbacks in stimulus and vaccine developments.Emerging market capital inflows were essentially unchanged during the week as US dollar safe-haven strength returned to the market on weaker economic expectations in Europe and as Brexit negotiations continued to disappoint. Over the near term, the more certain the market is of an uncontested election outcome, the greater the potential for US dollar weakness on concerns that more fiscal spending will widen U.S. trade and budget deficits. More immediately, the Evergrande situation, Brexit negotiation uncertainty and Coronavirus resurgence may offset dollar weakness in safe-haven dollar flight. This may limit EM inflows.Financial institutions issued over US$16 billion in USD and Euros. Amongst Asia-headquartered banks, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-east-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:341:1" rel="noopener">Bank of East Asia (BNKEA)</a> issued an Additional Tier 1 bond while the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agricultural-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1120:1" rel="noopener">Agricultural Bank of China (1288 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-minsheng-banking-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8983:1" rel="noopener">China Minsheng Bank (1988 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unionbank-of-the-philippines" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23192:1" rel="noopener">UnionBank of the Philippines (UBP PM)</a> brought Senior Unsecured bonds of various maturities. Please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-of-east-asia-s-new-at1-likely-coupon-and-curve-impact" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44112" rel="noopener">Bank of East Asia’s New AT1 – Likely Coupon and Curve Impact</a> for our pre-issuance valuation thoughts on BNKEA's new AT1 bond.  Concurrently, China saw interest of over US$27 billion for its bonds. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc-a723bd63-0890-486f-aaa0-3bb9ad2b95ce" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21976:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN)</a> was left off the list of banks arranging China’s sovereign dollar debt sale for the first time since the nation returned with big annual deals in 2017, according to Bloomberg.Market Outlook Time to separate the signals from the noise for bank investors. A sweep of the Senate, House and Presidency by the Democratic Party may be met with higher long-term interest rates on spending concerns. Although stimulus may be positive for US risk assets, higher long-term rates may not be emerging market friendly. However, a rise in long-term rates may be tempered by the return of US Treasuries as a favored carry-trade option and by more targeted Federal Reserve asset purchase program operations. Eventual reflation is bank credit and equity positive, getting to reflation is not.

Asia’s Additional Tier 1 bonds underperformed as investors shifted into High Yield and X-over rated Senior Unsecured notes. China Evergrande Group's (3333 HK) attempts to restore investor confidence disappointed and negatively impacted risk sentiment. China’s US$6 billion in issuance also likely absorbed excess US$ liquidity, despite the low yields on offer.   US high yield markets continued to outperform Asia’s, and the relative outperformance of the US versus Asia resulted in continued high yield index spread decompression. Asia’s recent index widening appears to be Evergrande driven and a reduction in this company’s financial distress could have a materially positive impact on Asia’s HY index.In rate markets, US Treasury curve steepening paused as investors digested negative stimulus, vaccine, and Covid-19 news in Europe. US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin affirmed market sentiment that a stimulus package was unlikely to be agreed before the November 3 election. The reaction was limited by expectations that a stimulus agreement will be agreed at some point before the end of the winter. Nonetheless, short-term interest rate futures fell slightly as expectations of increased near-term monetary accommodation combined with limited near-term stimulus growth to lower rising rate expectations.In US equity markets, November futures on the Chicago Board of Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) were unchanged week-on-week as election result outcomes continued to point to a less contentious result than anticipated a few weeks ago. Meanwhile the spot VIX Index rose 2 index points on slightly higher perceived downside risks from rising Coronavirus cases in Europe as well as setbacks in stimulus and vaccine developments.Emerging market capital inflows were essentially unchanged during the week as US dollar safe-haven strength returned to the market on weaker economic expectations in Europe and as Brexit negotiations continued to disappoint. Over the near term, the more certain the market is of an uncontested election outcome, the greater the potential for US dollar weakness on concerns that more fiscal spending will widen U.S. trade and budget deficits. More immediately, the Evergrande situation, Brexit negotiation uncertainty and Coronavirus resurgence may offset dollar weakness in safe-haven dollar flight. This may limit EM inflows.Financial institutions issued over US$16 billion in USD and Euros. Amongst Asia-headquartered banks, Bank of East Asia (BNKEA) issued an Additional Tier 1 bond while the Agricultural Bank of China (1288 HK), Bank of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK), China Minsheng Bank (1988 HK), and UnionBank of the Philippines (UBP PM) brought Senior Unsecured bonds of various maturities. Please see Bank of East Asia’s New AT1 – Likely Coupon and Curve Impact for our pre-issuance valuation thoughts on BNKEA's new AT1 bond.  Concurrently, China saw interest of over US$27 billion for its bonds. HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN) was left off the list of banks arranging China’s sovereign dollar debt sale for the first time since the nation returned with big annual deals in 2017, according to Bloomberg.Market Outlook Time to separate the signals from the noise for bank investors. A sweep of the Senate, House and Presidency by the Democratic Party may be met with higher long-term interest rates on spending concerns. Although stimulus may be positive for US risk assets, higher long-term rates may not be emerging market friendly. However, a rise in long-term rates may be tempered by the return of US Treasuries as a favored carry-trade option and by more targeted Federal Reserve asset purchase program operations. Eventual reflation is bank credit and equity positive, getting to reflation is not.

Bank Credit Weekly: Risk Pause as China Evergrande Impacts Asia Sentiment

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.
<ul>
<li><a href="#lucror-entity-27942" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Agile</a></li>
<li><a href="#lucror-entity-16010" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Agung Podomoro Land</a></li>
<li><a href="#lucror-entity-713" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Evergrande Auto</a></li>
</ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Agile
Agung Podomoro Land
Evergrande Auto


Morning Views Asia: Agile, Agung Podomoro Land, Evergrande Auto

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

Media reports from Bloomberg and other sources suggest that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-real-estate-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK)</a> has launched an equity placement - a so-called top-up placement - for 490 million shares at a price of HK$16.50-17.20, or an 11.1-14.7% discount to the last traded price of $19.34/share. There is apparently an upsize option of an additional 120mm shares.This offer appears scheduled to raise up to US$1.043-1.087bn in funds with US$255mm more from the upsize option if done at the lower end of the range. The news surrounding Evergrande recently has been less than salutary for investors. Despite highly bullish commentary around unofficial and unaudited figures in early July which appeared to have sent the shares soaring nearly 40% in 3 days to HK$28/share, several weeks later on 16 August the company released a profit warning and results came out the 31st of August. On the 13th Evergrande had sold a US$3bn stake in its property management vehicle, sold another block in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-new-energy-vehicle-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:713:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Auto (708 HK)</a>, was preparing a near-term listing of its property management entity and was looking to conduct a large offering for Evergrande Auto on the Star Board.  Hints of further ugliness came out in the last days of August and early days of September when it was reported that a dozen real estate developers had been called into a meeting 20 August to let them know they had been chosen to participate (participation not optional) in a pilot programme which restricted lending growth to companies which did not cross Three Red Lines which were...<ol style="list-style-type: decimal;">
<li>a liability-to-asset ratio (excluding pre-sales) of 70%,</li>
<li>a net debt-to-equity ratio of 100%, and</li>
<li>cash holdings equal to 100% of short-term debt.</li>
</ol>Evergrande handily beats all three and therefore would be restricted from new borrowings (including increase outstanding debt to pay the coupons on existing debt). This means that Evergrande needs to de-lever. It reportedly has started doing so since earlier this year but it is not clear what the necessary reference points are and where Evergrande stands in relation to those reference points in terms of showing that it is making progress (if it doesn't meet the Three Red Lines thresholds, it needs to show it is making progress towards doing so in future). The last straw was the <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/china-evergrande/chinas-no-2-developer-evergrande-pleads-for-government-support-to-avoid-cash-crunch-idINL3N2GL2H9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> letter (which Evergrande <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0924/2020092401313.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">denied existed</a>) which had asked the Guangdong government for assistance in aligning its debt obligations and repayment schedule so that unwanted disruption and confusion in the marketplace did not occur (those tracking this story may have a slightly more blunt way of phrasing this). There was also the matter of the 3yr expiry of the Hengda equity putback coming in January 2021 if that business were not listed. This too caused consternation in the market. All of this was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/evergrande-may-be-facing-a-funding-squeeze" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43592" rel="noopener">Evergrande May Be Facing a Funding Squeeze</a> on 27 September.Following the news coverage, shares dropped sharply, the bonds traded weaker, but a few days later Evergrande somehow <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0929/2020092900829.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">managed to convince</a> a large chunk of the equity financiers of Hengda to roll their ownership/funding for another year. That helped keep the wolves at bay for Jan 2021 but Evergrande still has a long way to go to be able to cross the Three Red Lines in the other direction. Asset sales and equitization are paramount, and along those lines, on 29 September Evergrande <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0929/2020092901436.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">submitted its listing application</a> to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to list Evergrande Property Services Group. More money is on the way. <h2>Today's NEW News</h2>Evergrande has announced an equity offering to raise cash for "refinancing and working capital." The thing is, US$1.1bn or even US$1.35bn won't cut it. Evergrande has RMB 820+bn of short-term and long-term interest-bearing debt, extended accounts payable, and the Hengda contingent liability floating around. This is nothing. So why are they doing it?That's the thing. There IS a reason. It appears obvious to me. And it doesn't make the stock more investible. More below the fold.

Media reports from Bloomberg and other sources suggest that Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK) has launched an equity placement - a so-called top-up placement - for 490 million shares at a price of HK$16.50-17.20, or an 11.1-14.7% discount to the last traded price of $19.34/share. There is apparently an upsize option of an additional 120mm shares.This offer appears scheduled to raise up to US$1.043-1.087bn in funds with US$255mm more from the upsize option if done at the lower end of the range. The news surrounding Evergrande recently has been less than salutary for investors. Despite highly bullish commentary around unofficial and unaudited figures in early July which appeared to have sent the shares soaring nearly 40% in 3 days to HK$28/share, several weeks later on 16 August the company released a profit warning and results came out the 31st of August. On the 13th Evergrande had sold a US$3bn stake in its property management vehicle, sold another block in Evergrande Auto (708 HK), was preparing a near-term listing of its property management entity and was looking to conduct a large offering for Evergrande Auto on the Star Board.  Hints of further ugliness came out in the last days of August and early days of September when it was reported that a dozen real estate developers had been called into a meeting 20 August to let them know they had been chosen to participate (participation not optional) in a pilot programme which restricted lending growth to companies which did not cross Three Red Lines which were...
a liability-to-asset ratio (excluding pre-sales) of 70%,
a net debt-to-equity ratio of 100%, and
cash holdings equal to 100% of short-term debt.
Evergrande handily beats all three and therefore would be restricted from new borrowings (including increase outstanding debt to pay the coupons on existing debt). This means that Evergrande needs to de-lever. It reportedly has started doing so since earlier this year but it is not clear what the necessary reference points are and where Evergrande stands in relation to those reference points in terms of showing that it is making progress (if it doesn't meet the Three Red Lines thresholds, it needs to show it is making progress towards doing so in future). The last straw was the reported letter (which Evergrande denied existed) which had asked the Guangdong government for assistance in aligning its debt obligations and repayment schedule so that unwanted disruption and confusion in the marketplace did not occur (those tracking this story may have a slightly more blunt way of phrasing this). There was also the matter of the 3yr expiry of the Hengda equity putback coming in January 2021 if that business were not listed. This too caused consternation in the market. All of this was discussed in Evergrande May Be Facing a Funding Squeeze on 27 September.Following the news coverage, shares dropped sharply, the bonds traded weaker, but a few days later Evergrande somehow managed to convince a large chunk of the equity financiers of Hengda to roll their ownership/funding for another year. That helped keep the wolves at bay for Jan 2021 but Evergrande still has a long way to go to be able to cross the Three Red Lines in the other direction. Asset sales and equitization are paramount, and along those lines, on 29 September Evergrande submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to list Evergrande Property Services Group. More money is on the way. Today's NEW NewsEvergrande has announced an equity offering to raise cash for "refinancing and working capital." The thing is, US$1.1bn or even US$1.35bn won't cut it. Evergrande has RMB 820+bn of short-term and long-term interest-bearing debt, extended accounts payable, and the Hengda contingent liability floating around. This is nothing. So why are they doing it?That's the thing. There IS a reason. It appears obvious to me. And it doesn't make the stock more investible. More below the fold. 

Evergrande Equity Placement - Musical Shares

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-real-estate-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK)</a> plans to raise upto US$1bn via a top-up placement.  The stock has been in the news over the past month for not exactly the right reasons. Given its debt woes, the current capital raising is unlikely to do much on a fundamental level. While the discount being offered looks tempting, especially versus the dilution, all of the past deals in the name haven't done well.

Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK) plans to raise upto US$1bn via a top-up placement.  The stock has been in the news over the past month for not exactly the right reasons. Given its debt woes, the current capital raising is unlikely to do much on a fundamental level. While the discount being offered looks tempting, especially versus the dilution, all of the past deals in the name haven't done well. 

China Evergrande Placement - Looks Tempting but It's a Drop in the Ocean of Debt, During a Typhoon

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-28953'>Central China New Life</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-713'>Evergrande Auto</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-433'>Fosun International</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-1776'>Indika Energy</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-18561'>JSW Steel Ltd</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-21047'>Ronshine China Holdings</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Central China New LifeEvergrande AutoFosun InternationalIndika EnergyJSW Steel LtdRonshine China Holdings

Morning Views Asia: Central China New Life, Evergrande Auto, Fosun International, Indika Energy

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

Bank Credit Weekly: Risk Pause as China Evergrande Impacts Asia Sentiment

A must-read on US$-risk sentiment derived from high yield and equity markets, interest rates, dollar levels, capital flows and issuance to frame...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Morning Views Asia: Agile, Agung Podomoro Land, Evergrande Auto

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Evergrande Equity Placement - Musical Shares

Media reports say Evergrande launched an Equity Offering to raise US$1.1bn. This is not enough to pay down RMB 450bn in debt overall or pay back...

Travis Lundy

China Evergrande Placement - Looks Tempting but It's a Drop in the Ocean of Debt, During a Typhoon

Evergrande plans to raise upto US$1bn via a top-up placement. The stock has been in the news over the past month for not exactly the right reasons.

Sumeet Singh

Morning Views Asia: Central China New Life, Evergrande Auto, Fosun International, Indika Energy

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

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