Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

On a tactical level, both onshore and offshore listed Chinese equities are starting to appear somewhat oversold and would rally sharply if the US offered any meaningful concessions resulting in some sort of agreement in either one or both of the disputes around trade and technology. Taking a more strategic perspective however, the inexorable shift towards a more Autarkic Governance Regime implies severe costs for both the Chinese economy and equity market(s).

On a tactical level, both onshore and offshore listed Chinese equities are starting to appear somewhat oversold and would rally sharply if the US offered any meaningful concessions resulting in some sort of agreement in either one or both of the disputes around trade and technology. Taking a more strategic perspective however, the inexorable shift towards a more Autarkic Governance Regime implies severe costs for both the Chinese economy and equity market(s).

China: The Shift to a More Autarkic Governance Regime Will Hurt the Economy and Investors

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

In our weekly HK Connect Snippet series, we aim to help our investors understand the flow of southbound trades via the Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine, and highlight interesting observations. We split the stocks eligible for the Hong Kong Connect trade into three groups: component stocks in the HSCEI index, stocks with a market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion, and stocks with a market capitalization between USD 500 million and USD 1 billion.In this insight, we will highlight the three weeks' consecutive inflow into HK Stocks via the southbound trade, led by Financials sector. Inflows into Tencent have been consistently positive. We also highlight outflows from auto manufacturers, such as Geely, Great Wall, and BYD. In the mid-cap space, we highlight Kingsoft, a leading mobile game and office software provider.

In our weekly HK Connect Snippet series, we aim to help our investors understand the flow of southbound trades via the Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine, and highlight interesting observations. We split the stocks eligible for the Hong Kong Connect trade into three groups: component stocks in the HSCEI index, stocks with a market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion, and stocks with a market capitalization between USD 500 million and USD 1 billion.In this insight, we will highlight the three weeks' consecutive inflow into HK Stocks via the southbound trade, led by Financials sector. Inflows into Tencent have been consistently positive. We also highlight outflows from auto manufacturers, such as Geely, Great Wall, and BYD. In the mid-cap space, we highlight Kingsoft, a leading mobile game and office software provider. 

HK Connect Snippet: Auto Manufacturers, Kingsoft (2019-05-31)

In our weekly HK Connect Snippet series, we aim to help our investors understand the flow of southbound trades via the Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine, and highlight interesting observations. We split the stocks eligible for the Hong Kong Connect trade into three groups: component stocks in the HSCEI index, stocks with a market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion, and stocks with a market capitalization between USD 500 million and USD 1 billion.In this insight, we will highlight the two weeks' consecutive inflow into HK Stocks via the southbound trade, led by Financials sector. We also highlight that inflows into Tencent have been positive for three weeks. In addition, inflows into Geely turned into outflow last week, following CAAM data.

In our weekly HK Connect Snippet series, we aim to help our investors understand the flow of southbound trades via the Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine, and highlight interesting observations. We split the stocks eligible for the Hong Kong Connect trade into three groups: component stocks in the HSCEI index, stocks with a market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion, and stocks with a market capitalization between USD 500 million and USD 1 billion.In this insight, we will highlight the two weeks' consecutive inflow into HK Stocks via the southbound trade, led by Financials sector. We also highlight that inflows into Tencent have been positive for three weeks. In addition, inflows into Geely turned into outflow last week, following CAAM data. 

HK Connect Snippet: Two Consecutive Weeks of Inflows, Tencent, Geely (2019-05-24)

In our weekly HK Connect Ideas series, we aim to help our investors understand the flow of southbound trades via the Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine, and highlight interesting trade ideas. We split the stocks eligible for the Hong Kong Connect trade into three groups: component stocks in the HSCEI index, stocks with a market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion, and stocks with a market capitalization between USD 500 million and USD 1 billion.In this insight, we will highlight that the recent inflow into Tencent (700 HK) has not suggested that the Southbound sentiment returned to the previous peak prior to tightening of mobile game approval.

In our weekly HK Connect Ideas series, we aim to help our investors understand the flow of southbound trades via the Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine, and highlight interesting trade ideas. We split the stocks eligible for the Hong Kong Connect trade into three groups: component stocks in the HSCEI index, stocks with a market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion, and stocks with a market capitalization between USD 500 million and USD 1 billion.In this insight, we will highlight that the recent inflow into Tencent (700 HK) has not suggested that the Southbound sentiment returned to the previous peak prior to tightening of mobile game approval. 

HK Connect Ideas: Longest Streak of Weekly Inflows YTD (2019-04-18)

In our weekly HK Connect Ideas series, we aim to help our investors understand the flow of southbound trades via the Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine, and highlight interesting trade ideas. We split the stocks eligible for the Hong Kong Connect trade into three groups: component stocks in the HSCEI index, stocks with a market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion, and stocks with a market capitalization between USD 500 million and USD 1 billion.In this insight, we will highlight inflow pattern of Tencent post its game approval.

In our weekly HK Connect Ideas series, we aim to help our investors understand the flow of southbound trades via the Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine, and highlight interesting trade ideas. We split the stocks eligible for the Hong Kong Connect trade into three groups: component stocks in the HSCEI index, stocks with a market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion, and stocks with a market capitalization between USD 500 million and USD 1 billion.In this insight, we will highlight inflow pattern of Tencent post its game approval. 

HK Connect Ideas: Tencent Inflows Not Sustained After Game Approval (2019-04-12)

China

China Construction Bank Corporation provides a comprehensive range of commercial banking products and services to individuals and corporate customers. The Bank's business consists of three principal business segments: corporate banking, personal banking, and treasury operations. China Construction Bank also services infrastructure loans, residential mortgage, and bank cards.

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China Construction Bank H (939 HK)

China: The Shift to a More Autarkic Governance Regime Will Hurt the Economy and Investors

On a tactical level, both onshore and offshore listed Chinese equities are starting to appear somewhat oversold and would rally sharply if the US...

John-Paul Smith

HK Connect Snippet: Auto Manufacturers, Kingsoft (2019-05-31)

In our weekly HK Connect Snippet series, we aim to help our investors understand the flow of southbound trades via the Hong Kong Connect, as...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect Snippet: Two Consecutive Weeks of Inflows, Tencent, Geely (2019-05-24)

In our weekly HK Connect Snippet series, we aim to help our investors understand the flow of southbound trades via the Hong Kong Connect, as...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect Ideas: Longest Streak of Weekly Inflows YTD (2019-04-18)

In our weekly HK Connect Ideas series, we aim to help our investors understand the flow of southbound trades via the Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect Ideas: Tencent Inflows Not Sustained After Game Approval (2019-04-12)

In our weekly HK Connect Ideas series, we aim to help our investors understand the flow of southbound trades via the Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)