Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Chuanyi Zhou

Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

China Aoyuan's FY 2020 results were in line with our expectations. Revenue growth was stronger y-o-y, but debt was elevated. Looking ahead, the company has a good base for revenue recognition, and the top-line growth should continue. The pace of property delivery may develop in line with an increase in construction loans. We note that in FY 2020, the company spent almost half of its contracted sales on land banking activities and continued building up its urban redevelopment portfolio. We remain cautious of Aoyuan's pace of expansion, as this could further drive up debt. At FYE 2020, Aoyuan was in breach of two of the regulator's Three Red Lines thresholds, with Net Debt/Equity at 114% (threshold: 100%) and Liabilities/Assets excluding customer advances at 79% (70%). This would mean that y-o-y debt growth is capped at 5% in principle. Management aims to meet all three requirements by 2023.

  China Aoyuan's FY 2020 results were in line with our expectations. Revenue growth was stronger y-o-y, but debt was elevated. Looking ahead, the company has a good base for revenue recognition, and the top-line growth should continue. The pace of property delivery may develop in line with an increase in construction loans.   We note that in FY 2020, the company spent almost half of its contracted sales on land banking activities and continued building up its urban redevelopment portfolio. We remain cautious of Aoyuan's pace of expansion, as this could further drive up debt.   At FYE 2020, Aoyuan was in breach of two of the regulator's Three Red Lines thresholds, with Net Debt/Equity at 114% (threshold: 100%) and Liabilities/Assets excluding customer advances at 79% (70%). This would mean that y-o-y debt growth is capped at 5% in principle. Management aims to meet all three requirements by 2023. 

China Aoyuan - Earnings Flash - FY 2020 Results - Lucror Analytics

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-28953'>Central China New Life</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-7613'>China Aoyuan Property</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-6159'>China SCE</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Central China New LifeChina Aoyuan PropertyChina SCE

Morning Views Asia: Central China New Life, China Aoyuan Property, China SCE

In this month's “In-Focus”, we update our study of agency ratings for Asian issuers, analysing ratings transitions for all issuers in the Lucror Asia HY index between January 2014 and the present. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month's “In-Focus”, we update our study of agency ratings for Asian issuers, analysing ratings transitions for all issuers in the Lucror Asia HY index between January 2014 and the present.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.  

Asia HY Monthly - Asian HY Ratings Transition Study - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of February includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of February includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - February 2021 - Lucror Analytics

Bond market data and technology, BondEvalue

BondEvalue

Bond market data and technology

BondEvalue is a Singapore-based Fintech that specializes in bond market data and technology. The company's information services business offers bond market data on hard-currency corporate & sovereign bonds across Asia, Middle East, Europe and the Americas. The data, which includes bond prices, yields, news and analytics, is offered to end investors via interactive Mobile and Web Apps. Investors can sign up for a free trial of the service either via the company's website (https://bondevalue.com) or by downloading the BondEvalue Mobile App (http://onelink.to/wej7jq). BondEvalue is also developing an electronic bond exchange, BondbloX in Singapore that allows investors to trade bonds electronically in smaller sizes (US$1,000 or equivalent). For more information, visit https://www.bondblox.com/

Bond Market Data and Technology

S&amp;P and Nasdaq ended almost flat on Friday after a slight positive start at the open. European indices were higher ~0.8% with FTSE underperforming. US 10Y Treasury and Bund yields climbed further by 8bp and 4bp 1.37% and -0.30% respectively. The US 2s10s curve has steepened ~31bp since end-January led by the sell-off in long-dated bonds. Eurozone’s preliminary PMI numbers came in at 57.7, a three year high as sentiment was upbeat. US IG CDS spreads were 0.6bp wider and HY was 2.8bp wider. EU main CDS spreads tightened 0.8bp and crossover spreads tightened 3.2bp. Asian issuers have slowly returned to the primaries with China Aoyuan  and REC  launching new deals this morning. Asian equity markets have opened ~0.7% higher while Asia ex-Japan CDS spreads are 0.2bp tighter.

REC & Aoyuan Launch $ Bonds; Macro; Rating Changes; New Bond Issues; Talking Heads; Top Gainers &...

China

China Aoyuan Group Limited operates as a property development company. The Company develops retails shops and integrated residential projects. China Aoyuan Group conducts businesses domestically and internationally.

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China Aoyuan Property (3883 HK)

China Aoyuan - Earnings Flash - FY 2020 Results - Lucror Analytics

China Aoyuan's FY 2020 results were in line with our expectations. Revenue growth was stronger y-o-y, but debt was elevated. Looking ahead, the...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: Central China New Life, China Aoyuan Property, China SCE

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Asian HY Ratings Transition Study - Lucror Analytics

In this month's “In-Focus”, we update our study of agency ratings for Asian issuers, analysing ratings transitions for all issuers in the Lucror...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Book - February 2021 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of February includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also...

Lucror Analytics

REC & Aoyuan Launch $ Bonds; Macro; Rating Changes; New Bond Issues; Talking Heads; Top Gainers &...

S&P and Nasdaq ended almost flat on Friday after a slight positive start at the open. European indices were higher ~0.8% with FTSE...

BondEvalue

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