Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

As we write this, fears of a reprisal attack by Saudi Arabia are being priced into the markets. Oil is surging on the back of the largest ever supply disruption in history.  Investment managers are likely caught on the wrong side of the Energy Sector move and were very underweight as the Sector’s performance has, year-to-date, been nothing but an anchor on performance.  The Energy Sector has underperformed for well over a decade and the sector is at its lowest weighting in the S&amp;P 500 going back to 2005. We are taking this opportunity to upgrade the Energy Sector to a Market Weight from an Underweight as we believe retaliatory action is highly likely.The move to value is a trend that we see likely to continue. Small-caps have also done an about face vs large caps (Russell 2000 vs Russell 1000) after having broken to RS lows not seen since 2009. We believe this will result in a move that would likely take us back up to the top of the range assuming a recession is off the table. In this report, we lay out our complete U.S. equity strategy, and make detailed comments and recommendations on each of our 12 Sectors.

 As we write this, fears of a reprisal attack by Saudi Arabia are being priced into the markets. Oil is surging on the back of the largest ever supply disruption in history.  Investment managers are likely caught on the wrong side of the Energy Sector move and were very underweight as the Sector’s performance has, year-to-date, been nothing but an anchor on performance.  The Energy Sector has underperformed for well over a decade and the sector is at its lowest weighting in the S&amp;P 500 going back to 2005. We are taking this opportunity to upgrade the Energy Sector to a Market Weight from an Underweight as we believe retaliatory action is highly likely.The move to value is a trend that we see likely to continue. Small-caps have also done an about face vs large caps (Russell 2000 vs Russell 1000) after having broken to RS lows not seen since 2009. We believe this will result in a move that would likely take us back up to the top of the range assuming a recession is off the table. In this report, we lay out our complete U.S. equity strategy, and make detailed comments and recommendations on each of our 12 Sectors.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Value and Small-Caps Appear to Be on the Cusp of Major Bullish Moves

The S&amp;P 500 continues to move higher on narrow leadership, which is not inspiring a bullish outlook. Currently leading the S&amp;P 500 higher in terms of RS are Technology, Services, Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), and Procter &amp; Gamble (PG). If this were a bull market, (1) PG would likely NOT be listed here as leadership, and (2) we would expect to see participation broaden out to Discretionary (RCD), Transportation (IYT), banks (KBE), Industrials (XLI), and small-caps (IWM). All of these areas are still consolidating below meaningful resistance, and we continue to believe upside is likely to be muted as long as this rings true.In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Transportation, Materials, and Services:

The S&amp;P 500 continues to move higher on narrow leadership, which is not inspiring a bullish outlook. Currently leading the S&amp;P 500 higher in terms of RS are Technology, Services, Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), and Procter &amp; Gamble (PG). If this were a bull market, (1) PG would likely NOT be listed here as leadership, and (2) we would expect to see participation broaden out to Discretionary (RCD), Transportation (IYT), banks (KBE), Industrials (XLI), and small-caps (IWM). All of these areas are still consolidating below meaningful resistance, and we continue to believe upside is likely to be muted as long as this rings true.In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Transportation, Materials, and Services:

U.S. Equity Strategy: Semiconductors, Transportation Improving

United States

CBIZ, Inc. provides professional business services to companies throughout the United States.  The Company provides accounting and tax, employee benefits, wealth management, property and casualty insurance, payroll, and HR consulting services.  CBIZ also provides internal audit, litigation advisory, healthcare consulting, medical practice management, and other services.

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Cbiz Inc (CBZ US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Value and Small-Caps Appear to Be on the Cusp of Major Bullish Moves

As we write this, fears of a reprisal attack by Saudi Arabia are being priced into the markets. Oil is surging on the back of the largest ever...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Semiconductors, Transportation Improving

The S&P 500 continues to move higher on narrow leadership, which is not inspiring a bullish outlook. Currently leading the S&P 500 higher...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)