Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We have earlier argued that the current M&amp;A in the container shipping industry is about "Survival" and not "Growth". This morning from Japan, <blockquote>Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd., Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd., and Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha have agreed, after the resolution by the board of directors of each company held today, and subject to regulatory approval from the authorities, to establish a new joint-venture company to integrate the container shipping businesses (including worldwide terminal…</blockquote>

We have earlier argued that the current M&amp;A in the container shipping industry is about "Survival" and not "Growth". This morning from Japan, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd., Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd., and Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha have agreed, after the resolution by the board of directors of each company held today, and subject to regulatory approval from the authorities, to establish a new joint-venture company to integrate the container shipping businesses (including worldwide terminal…

Container Shipping - "Survival" M&A In Full Swing, Japanese Big 3 Merge Container Operations

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Equity Bottom-Up

International Traffic Remained Strong in September: For all three state-owned carriers, international travel demand remained strong in September, as measured by RPKs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8239" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a> reported a 17.1% Y/Y increase in international RPKs in September, and for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1078" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1">China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1079" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1079:1">China Eastern Airlines Co (H) (670 HK)</a> international traffic grew by 15.6% and 28.6%, respectively. As we argued recently in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chinese-transportation-in-a-sea-of-decline-express-int-l-air-travel-are-islands-of-growth" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:5932">Chinese Transportation: In A Sea Of Decline, Express &amp; Int’l</a>…

International Traffic Remained Strong in September: For all three state-owned carriers, international travel demand remained strong in September, as measured by RPKs. Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) reported a 17.1% Y/Y increase in international RPKs in September, and for China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055 HK) and China Eastern Airlines Co (H) (670 HK) international traffic grew by 15.6% and 28.6%, respectively. As we argued recently in Chinese Transportation: In A Sea Of Decline, Express &amp; Int’l…

Int'l Air Travel Demand Remained Strong in China in September

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

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Cathay Pacific Airways / Equity Bottom-Up

No-moat Cathay Pacific has retracted its second-half earnings forecast just two months after the release of its interim report. The company no longer expects better bottom-line performance in the second half, citing that “overcapacity and strong competition” are having an adverse impact on passenger ticket yield performance. After factoring in the worse-than-expected yield deterioration, we cut our 2016 net income and revenue forecasts by 79% and 2%, respectively, to HKD 518 million and HKD 9.4 billion.Longer term, the higher operating costs related to external factors (higher airport construction charges and increasing landing and parking fees) will weigh further on Cathay’s bottom line, in our view. Thus, we lower our fair value estimate to HKD 9 per share from HKD 10 per shareAnalyst: John Hu

No-moat Cathay Pacific has retracted its second-half earnings forecast just two months after the release of its interim report. The company no longer expects better bottom-line performance in the second half, citing that “overcapacity and strong competition” are having an adverse impact on passenger ticket yield performance. After factoring in the worse-than-expected yield deterioration, we cut our 2016 net income and revenue forecasts by 79% and 2%, respectively, to HKD 518 million and HKD 9.4 billion.Longer term, the higher operating costs related to external factors (higher airport construction charges and increasing landing and parking fees) will weigh further on Cathay’s bottom line, in our view. Thus, we lower our fair value estimate to HKD 9 per share from HKD 10 per shareAnalyst: John Hu

Cathay Pacific Set To Report Dismayed Second-Half 2016 Results

Strong supply growth on account of high vessel deliveriesscheduled in FY16/FY17 will continue to keep the LPG shipping market in imbalance. On the demand side, with lower price of LPG in Asia, the propane trade has been hurt, and there has been no major driver of incremental demand to absorb the excess tonnage available. Freight rates across segments have dropped in the recent past, and we do not expect a meaningful recovery over the next 12 months, even thoughthere could be a short-lived…

Strong supply growth on account of high vessel deliveriesscheduled in FY16/FY17 will continue to keep the LPG shipping market in imbalance. On the demand side, with lower price of LPG in Asia, the propane trade has been hurt, and there has been no major driver of incremental demand to absorb the excess tonnage available. Freight rates across segments have dropped in the recent past, and we do not expect a meaningful recovery over the next 12 months, even thoughthere could be a short-lived…

DMER - LPG Shipping - Headwinds to Persist in FY17

In our update yesterday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dmer-chinese-port-operators-avoid-bottom-fishing-in-troubled-waters," target="_blank">https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dmer-chinese-port-operators-avoid-bottom-fishing-in-troubled-waters,</a> we looked at the Chinese port on macro basis. We had cautioned against bottom-fishing based on past valuation multiples. Investors are more likely to pick up Chinese port operators with greater unrewarded risks than for the port companies overseas.In this update we highlight that there are little signs of green shoots for mainland Chinese operators with laggard throughput growth across the three economic regions: Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Bohai Rim.

In our update yesterday, https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dmer-chinese-port-operators-avoid-bottom-fishing-in-troubled-waters, we looked at the Chinese port on macro basis. We had cautioned against bottom-fishing based on past valuation multiples. Investors are more likely to pick up Chinese port operators with greater unrewarded risks than for the port companies overseas.In this update we highlight that there are little signs of green shoots for mainland Chinese operators with laggard throughput growth across the three economic regions: Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Bohai Rim.

DMER - Chinese Port Operators 2.0 - Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Bohai Rim, HK Update.

Hong Kong

Cathay Pacific Airways Limited operates scheduled airline services. The Company also provides related services, including airline catering, aircraft handling, and engineering.

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Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)

Container Shipping - "Survival" M&A In Full Swing, Japanese Big 3 Merge Container Operations

We have earlier argued that the current M&A in the container shipping industry is about "Survival" and not "Growth". This morning from...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Int'l Air Travel Demand Remained Strong in China in September

International Traffic Remained Strong in September: For all three state-owned carriers, international travel demand remained strong in September,...

Daniel Hellberg

Cathay Pacific Set To Report Dismayed Second-Half 2016 Results

No-moat Cathay Pacific has retracted its second-half earnings forecast just two months after the release of its interim report. The company no...

Morningstar, Inc.

DMER - LPG Shipping - Headwinds to Persist in FY17

Strong supply growth on account of high vessel deliveriesscheduled in FY16/FY17 will continue to keep the LPG shipping market in imbalance. On the...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

DMER - Chinese Port Operators 2.0 - Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Bohai Rim, HK Update.

In our update yesterday, https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dmer-chinese-port-operators-avoid-bottom-fishing-in-troubled-waters, we looked at the...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

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