Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Less than a year since the news hit that the Chinese outbreak spread to the world, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pfizer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1131:1" rel="noopener">Pfizer Inc (PFE US)</a> has announced its vaccine with more than 90% effective in preventing Covid-19 among those without evidence of prior infection. Similar to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-outbreak-theme-winners-and-losers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:35971" rel="noopener">China Outbreak Theme: Winners and Losers</a> , this insight will discuss the potential winners and losers from the announcement of the vaccine. Travel-related names such as airlines, airport operators, tour operators, the duty-free operators are the clear beneficiaries of this news while auto dealership will also benefit from the potential lower unemployment later on. Instant noodle makers, pc makers that benefit from the work-from-home rush, as well as glove makers will no longer enjoy the same growth rate in 1H, and in the case of the glove makers, both ASP and volumes may see a decline.

Less than a year since the news hit that the Chinese outbreak spread to the world, Pfizer Inc (PFE US) has announced its vaccine with more than 90% effective in preventing Covid-19 among those without evidence of prior infection. Similar to China Outbreak Theme: Winners and Losers , this insight will discuss the potential winners and losers from the announcement of the vaccine. Travel-related names such as airlines, airport operators, tour operators, the duty-free operators are the clear beneficiaries of this news while auto dealership will also benefit from the potential lower unemployment later on. Instant noodle makers, pc makers that benefit from the work-from-home rush, as well as glove makers will no longer enjoy the same growth rate in 1H, and in the case of the glove makers, both ASP and volumes may see a decline. 

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1184:1" rel="noopener">Japan Airlines (9201 JP)</a> plans to raise around US$1.4bn in order to shore up its balance sheet and aid its longer term transformation.
The shares are down over 50% this year, after having corrected by another 10% today.
In this insight, I'll talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Japan Airlines (9201 JP) plans to raise around US$1.4bn in order to shore up its balance sheet and aid its longer term transformation.
The shares are down over 50% this year, after having corrected by another 10% today.
In this insight, I'll talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Japan Airlines Placement - Given the Uncertain Outlook, Might Need Further Correction

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Updated with air departure and hotel information on October 30, our Chinese travel tracker dashboard shows a couple of interesting data points this week:<ol>
<li>The pace of flight departure growth slowed at the four Mainland Chinese airports we track, while airports outside Mainland China showed solid improvement. This is the opposite of what we've seen in most periods since we launched this product in April 2020.</li>
<li>Average hotel room rates quoted by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> firmed dramatically, but we worry about a single data point that had an outsized impact on weighted average rates. Even putting this odd figure aside, however, hotel rates improved slightly versus a month ago.</li>
</ol>

Updated with air departure and hotel information on October 30, our Chinese travel tracker dashboard shows a couple of interesting data points this week:
The pace of flight departure growth slowed at the four Mainland Chinese airports we track, while airports outside Mainland China showed solid improvement. This is the opposite of what we've seen in most periods since we launched this product in April 2020.
Average hotel room rates quoted by Trip.com (TCOM US) firmed dramatically, but we worry about a single data point that had an outsized impact on weighted average rates. Even putting this odd figure aside, however, hotel rates improved slightly versus a month ago.


TRACKING TRAFFIC's Travel Tracker Dashboard (October 30): Air Traffic Ex-Mainland China Firms

Equity Bottom-Up

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</section>
Outbound Chinese travel demand remained weak in September, despite Macau doubling Chinese inbound traffic (again). Activity from China into most regional destinations remained comatose.
Domestic Chinese travel demand continued its recovery in September, and one metric even showed a modest YoY improvement. Other measures showed activity still far below year-ago levels. 
However, data also show that average domestic air segment length remains depressed, and this suggests consumers remain cautious regarding leisure travel.
We continue to expect only a gradual recovery in tourism and travel demand over the next few months.




Outbound Chinese travel demand remained weak in September, despite Macau doubling Chinese inbound traffic (again). Activity from China into most regional destinations remained comatose.
Domestic Chinese travel demand continued its recovery in September, and one metric even showed a modest YoY improvement. Other measures showed activity still far below year-ago levels. 
However, data also show that average domestic air segment length remains depressed, and this suggests consumers remain cautious regarding leisure travel.
We continue to expect only a gradual recovery in tourism and travel demand over the next few months.

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: Outbound: Comatose | Domestic: Fewer, Shorter Trips = New Normal?

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Southern Airlines / Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a> is the only of the Big Three Chinese airlines to record a profit in 3Q20, thanks to its domestic exposure, good cost management and exchange gain from Rmb/USD appreciation. It logged a profit of Rmb711m in the quarter, significantly ahead of losses of Rmb671m for Air China and Rmb563m for CEA. We believe CSA's solid performance can extend into 4Q20, sustaining its outperformance against these two peers.Both CEA and Air China will continue to be weighted down by their international routes, with Air China further suffers from the burden from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a>. At 0.75x P/B, CSA stays firmly as our top pick in the Chinese airlines sector.

China Southern Airlines (1055 HK) is the only of the Big Three Chinese airlines to record a profit in 3Q20, thanks to its domestic exposure, good cost management and exchange gain from Rmb/USD appreciation. It logged a profit of Rmb711m in the quarter, significantly ahead of losses of Rmb671m for Air China and Rmb563m for CEA. We believe CSA's solid performance can extend into 4Q20, sustaining its outperformance against these two peers.Both CEA and Air China will continue to be weighted down by their international routes, with Air China further suffers from the burden from Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK). At 0.75x P/B, CSA stays firmly as our top pick in the Chinese airlines sector.   

China Southern Airlines (1055 HK): Profit, Profit, Profit in 3Q20

Hong Kong

Cathay Pacific Airways Limited operates scheduled airline services. The Company also provides related services, including airline catering, aircraft handling, and engineering.

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Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)

Pfizer Vaccine: Winners and Losers

Similar to China Outbreak Theme: Winners and Losers , this insight will discuss the potential winners and losers from the announcement of the vaccine.

Henry Soediarko

Japan Airlines Placement - Given the Uncertain Outlook, Might Need Further Correction

Japan Airlines (9201 JP) plans to raise around US$1.4bn in order to shore up its balance sheet and aid its longer term transformation.

Sumeet Singh

TRACKING TRAFFIC's Travel Tracker Dashboard (October 30): Air Traffic Ex-Mainland China Firms

Air traffic and hotel room rate data from October 30 show an improvement in activity outside Mainland China (albeit from a low base) and improved...

Tracking Traffic

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: Outbound: Comatose | Domestic: Fewer, Shorter Trips = New Normal?

September numbers show almost non-existent outbound travel but a continued gradual recovery in domestic travel demand. Shorter average domestic air...

Tracking Traffic

China Southern Airlines (1055 HK): Profit, Profit, Profit in 3Q20

CSA is the only of the Big Three to record a profit in 3Q20, thanks to its domestic exposure, good cost management and exchange gain from Rmb/USD...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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52-week Range

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