Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>GoAir (Go First) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming India IPO. The company is owned by the Wadia family, who also own <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)</a>.</li>
<li>Go Air is an ultra-low-cost carrier (ULCC) primarily operating in India. It had a market share of 10.8% in FY20 in the domestic market.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


GoAir (Go First) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming India IPO. The company is owned by the Wadia family, who also own Britannia Industries (BRIT IN).
Go Air is an ultra-low-cost carrier (ULCC) primarily operating in India. It had a market share of 10.8% in FY20 in the domestic market.
In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Go Air (Go First) Pre-IPO - The Positives - Was Flying Reasonably High Pre-COVID

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).</li>
<li>Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.</li>
<li>We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).
Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.
We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.


Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Alliance Aviation Services / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a> entered a SID with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qantas-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:677:1" rel="noopener">Qantas Airways (QAN AU)</a>. Shareholders will receive A$4.75 in Qantas shares for each Alliance share, 35.3% premium to 4 May close. </li>
<li>The key risk is approval from the ACCC, which will start a public review. On 5 April, the ACCC closed an investigation into Qantas’ acquisition of its 19.9% Alliance stake. </li>
<li>Alliance Aviation can pay an additional special cash dividend if ACCC approval takes time. The offer is attractive in the context of historical share prices and multiples.</li>
</ul>



Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU) entered a SID with Qantas Airways (QAN AU). Shareholders will receive A$4.75 in Qantas shares for each Alliance share, 35.3% premium to 4 May close. 
The key risk is approval from the ACCC, which will start a public review. On 5 April, the ACCC closed an investigation into Qantas’ acquisition of its 19.9% Alliance stake. 
Alliance Aviation can pay an additional special cash dividend if ACCC approval takes time. The offer is attractive in the context of historical share prices and multiples.


Qantas Aims to Fully Acquire Alliance Aviation

<ul>
<li>Air New Zealand (AIR) was aiming to raise around US$827m (NZ$1.2bn) via a renounceable rights issue. It has now launched a shortfall of around US$153m, at last close.</li>
<li>We have covered the background of the rights and expected shortfall in our earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/air-new-zealand-rights-and-possible-shortfall-delayed-boarding-but-its-priced-to-fly" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:67651" rel="noopener">Air New Zealand Rights and Possible Shortfall - Delayed Boarding but Its Priced to Fly</a>.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the recent updates and shortfall pricing.</li>
</ul>


Air New Zealand (AIR) was aiming to raise around US$827m (NZ$1.2bn) via a renounceable rights issue. It has now launched a shortfall of around US$153m, at last close.
We have covered the background of the rights and expected shortfall in our earlier note, Air New Zealand Rights and Possible Shortfall - Delayed Boarding but Its Priced to Fly.
In this note, we talk about the recent updates and shortfall pricing.


Air New Zealand Shortfall - Not a Great Take-Up Probably Because of the Large Retail Holding

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We look at short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan in April to identify stocks/sectors that have seen the largest changes in each market.</li>
<li>Korea and Taiwan are showing a clear divergence with short notional increasing as the market moves lower, indicative of new shorts being initiated.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd-3388a037-4214-4997-b45d-520518cfdb57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a> has seen the largest short covering as the stock has tumbled in the last couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


We look at short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan in April to identify stocks/sectors that have seen the largest changes in each market.
Korea and Taiwan are showing a clear divergence with short notional increasing as the market moves lower, indicative of new shorts being initiated.

China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) has seen the largest short covering as the stock has tumbled in the last couple of weeks.


Asia Short Interest: Large Moves in April

Hong Kong

Cathay Pacific Airways Limited operates scheduled airline services. The Company also provides related services, including airline catering, aircraft handling, and engineering.

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Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)

Go Air (Go First) Pre-IPO - The Positives - Was Flying Reasonably High Pre-COVID

GoAir (Go First) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming India IPO. The company is owned by the Wadia family, who also own Britannia...

Sumeet Singh

Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China $MCHI, and...

Vermilion Research

Qantas Aims to Fully Acquire Alliance Aviation

Shareholders will receive A$4.75 in Qantas shares for each Alliance share. ACCC approval is the key risk. At the last close, the gross spread to...

Arun George

Air New Zealand Shortfall - Not a Great Take-Up Probably Because of the Large Retail Holding

Air New Zealand (AIR) was aiming to raise around US$827m (NZ$1.2bn) via a renounceable rights issue. It has now launched a shortfall of around...

Sumeet Singh

Asia Short Interest: Large Moves in April

Short notional in Korea and Taiwan has been increasing as the market has been moving lower. Shorts on China Merchant Bank have been covered in...

Brian Freitas

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