Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

DFRS Container Shipping Bonds Outlook - Recovery Priced In, See Downside Risk from Current Levels<ul><li>
In the current interest rate environment, we support issues that lie higher on the risk spectrum with a short duration. We believe in high yield notes from companies that have proven abilities in raising funds through various sources, mitigating refinancing risk as rates pick up. Short duration is a key metric for our bond picks at the moment, as we anticipate further rate hikes during the year by…</li></ul>

DFRS Container Shipping Bonds Outlook - Recovery Priced In, See Downside Risk from Current Levels
In the current interest rate environment, we support issues that lie higher on the risk spectrum with a short duration. We believe in high yield notes from companies that have proven abilities in raising funds through various sources, mitigating refinancing risk as rates pick up. Short duration is a key metric for our bond picks at the moment, as we anticipate further rate hikes during the year by…

DFRS Container Shipping Bonds Outlook - Recovery Priced In, See Downside Risk from Current Levels

Container Shipping - Spot Rates Now Filtering into Contract Rates, Indicating a Big Positive ReversalIn our last update <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/container-shipping-spot-rates-touch-20-month-high" target="_blank">https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/container-shipping-spot-rates-touch-20-month-high</a> we had highlighted spot container freight rates on the major East-West routes reaching a 20-month high and having risen above the average of the last 5 years. WCI spot rates assessed by Drewry (USD / 40ft container)<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/020/332/original/wci1.JPG?1486437501" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="20332"></figure>Our recent channel checks suggest the spot rates are now having an increasingly…

Container Shipping - Spot Rates Now Filtering into Contract Rates, Indicating a Big Positive ReversalIn our last update https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/container-shipping-spot-rates-touch-20-month-high we had highlighted spot container freight rates on the major East-West routes reaching a 20-month high and having risen above the average of the last 5 years. WCI spot rates assessed by Drewry (USD / 40ft container)Our recent channel checks suggest the spot rates are now having an increasingly…

Container Shipping - Spot Rates Now Filtering into Contract Rates, Indicating Big Positive Reversal

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

This topic has nagged me for some time. Two months ago when the Case-Shiller Home Price Index “made a new high” and after new highs again this week, I’ve been doing back of the envelope calculations based on my property portfolio to show how screwed tracking prices in property investments can be.I believe such coverage of property price performance is wholly misleading and misrepresents real returns for investors and home buyers.A  home and a home price  that was transacted even 10 years ago was a substantially different home to today’s home. A recognized stock price (not DRYS!)  over 10 years has a much better chance of reflecting price movements that correspond to positive and negative returns to the investor directly.The distortion in property prices comes from a slew of adjustments we need to make, and which can shave several percent off a value per year! I’ve used my own property transaction data to work out the adjustments that should be made. There are two main categories which need to be made (with many sub-categories).

This topic has nagged me for some time. Two months ago when the Case-Shiller Home Price Index “made a new high” and after new highs again this week, I’ve been doing back of the envelope calculations based on my property portfolio to show how screwed tracking prices in property investments can be.I believe such coverage of property price performance is wholly misleading and misrepresents real returns for investors and home buyers.A  home and a home price  that was transacted even 10 years ago was a substantially different home to today’s home. A recognized stock price (not DRYS!)  over 10 years has a much better chance of reflecting price movements that correspond to positive and negative returns to the investor directly.The distortion in property prices comes from a slew of adjustments we need to make, and which can shave several percent off a value per year! I’ve used my own property transaction data to work out the adjustments that should be made. There are two main categories which need to be made (with many sub-categories).

Case-Shiller Property Indices Hugely Misleading...and Different from Stocks (LT Invst Windows Tight)

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

The new US administration is heading towards a stand-off with China over trade by eschewing the incremental approach of Obama’s administration in favour of more specific targets, to be pursued by bilateral negotiations/ultimatums in addition to the usual multilateral channels. The Trump team is targeting four distinct areas to help reduce the bilateral trade imbalance, all of which touch on what the Chinese authorities perceive as vital national interests, so it is difficult to identify any…

The new US administration is heading towards a stand-off with China over trade by eschewing the incremental approach of Obama’s administration in favour of more specific targets, to be pursued by bilateral negotiations/ultimatums in addition to the usual multilateral channels. The Trump team is targeting four distinct areas to help reduce the bilateral trade imbalance, all of which touch on what the Chinese authorities perceive as vital national interests, so it is difficult to identify any…

Trump and China; the Calm Before the Storm?

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Kelusa Asia Focus Funds

Equity Bottom-Up

Caterpillar reported its December retail sales statistics, down -12% YoY.  Retail sales statistics are a good indicator as to what sales number we will have for the quarter. We can forecast that Caterpillar will have a revenue number of -15% YoY for Q4 2016.  Here is a graph that illustrates the correlation between the retail machinery statistics and revenue growth. It is safe to say that Caterpillar will miss it's renewed 2016 guidance (see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/caterpillar-3q-2016-guided-down" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:6671">Caterpillar 3Q 2016: Guided Down</a>)<div class="content-highlight">Retail Machinery…</div>

Caterpillar reported its December retail sales statistics, down -12% YoY.  Retail sales statistics are a good indicator as to what sales number we will have for the quarter. We can forecast that Caterpillar will have a revenue number of -15% YoY for Q4 2016.  Here is a graph that illustrates the correlation between the retail machinery statistics and revenue growth. It is safe to say that Caterpillar will miss it's renewed 2016 guidance (see: Caterpillar 3Q 2016: Guided Down)Retail Machinery…

Caterpillar December Sales -12% YoY, Q4 2016 Sales to Average -15% YoY

United States

Caterpillar Inc. designs, manufactures and markets construction, mining and forestry machinery. The Company also manufactures engines  and other related parts for its equipment, and offers financing and insurance. Caterpillar distributes its products through a worldwide organization of dealers.

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Caterpillar Inc (CAT US)

DFRS Container Shipping Bonds Outlook - Recovery Priced In, See Downside Risk from Current Levels

DFRS Container Shipping Bonds Outlook - Recovery Priced In, See Downside Risk from Current Levels In the current interest rate environment, we...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Container Shipping - Spot Rates Now Filtering into Contract Rates, Indicating Big Positive Reversal

Container Shipping - Spot Rates Now Filtering into Contract Rates, Indicating a Big Positive ReversalIn our last...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Case-Shiller Property Indices Hugely Misleading...and Different from Stocks (LT Invst Windows Tight)

This topic has nagged me for some time. Two months ago when the Case-Shiller Home Price Index “made a new high” and after new highs again this...

Charles De Trenck

Trump and China; the Calm Before the Storm?

The new US administration is heading towards a stand-off with China over trade by eschewing the incremental approach of Obama’s administration in...

John-Paul Smith

Caterpillar December Sales -12% YoY, Q4 2016 Sales to Average -15% YoY

Caterpillar reported its December retail sales statistics, down -12% YoY. Retail sales statistics are a good indicator as to what sales number we...

Sameer Taneja

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