European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<div>
<div>
<h3>Trends</h3>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p>Discounts have generally tightened across the European space.</p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<h3>Recommended trades</h3>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlsberg-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22320:1" rel="noopener">Carlsberg A/S (CARLB DC)</a> B shares (with 1/10th of the voting rights of the A shares) are trading at a 25.2% discount (12.5% by mid-March) vs. the A shares, demand for illiquid A shares seems to be the explanation. Maintain <strong>LONG B shares/short A</strong> shares on.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bayerische-motoren-werke-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21591:1" rel="noopener">Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW GR)</a> exhibited a trend towards a reduction of the discount of preferred shares, until March 2020. The discount is trading in a range and is now 22.1% (vs. 20.7% by mid-March and 25.2% by mid-December). Maintain <strong>long BMW prefs, short common</strong> shares on, with a target of a 15% discount.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuchs-petrolub-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21624:1" rel="noopener">Fuchs Petrolub SE (FPE GR)</a>'s premium seems to vary within a range, which is probably liquidity related. It is <strong>20.5%</strong> (vs. 19.6% by mid-March and down from 29.4% by mid-February and 34.4% in my October report). With over 50% of the ordinary shares, the Fuchs family maintains the majority vote. They have never stated they would consolidate and pride to be the number 1 among the independent suppliers of lubricants.</p>
<p>Although there is no reason why the voting rights should be specially dear in Fuchs's case, voting rights are still valuable and neither the dividend advantage of the preferred shares nor their being members of several midcap indexes (Prime Standard/MDAX; STOXX Europe 600; DAXplus Familiy 30) justify the large premium, in my view. Maintain the trade <strong>long common/short prefs</strong> on, with a 10% target.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/henkel-ag-co-kgaa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21646:1" rel="noopener">Henkel AG &amp; Co KGaA (HEN3 GR)</a> shows a long-term trend towards a reduction of the premium of the preferred shares. The premium has recently widened and is now 14.9% (vs. 11.9% by mid-March). Maintain the trade <strong>short prefs/long common</strong> shares with a 10% premium target.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Voting rights are valuable in a company like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/volkswagen-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21738:1" rel="noopener">Volkswagen (VOW GR)</a>. Prefs discount had recently widened to erstwhile levels: 16.6% (vs. 31.8% on 18 March, highest since November 2009). Preference shares have in the past traded at a premium due to its higher liquidity and inclusion in stock indexes. That said, the ordinary shares are also liquid. The shareholder structure of Volkswagen is stable, and there seems to be no reason why the discount of the prefs should widen. Preference shares have in the past traded at a premium due to its higher liquidity and inclusion in stock indexes. Recommendation is <strong>long prefs/short ords, with the necessary health warning attached to any trading with Volkswagen share classes, as one can never be completely sure of the Porsche/Piech families' plans.</strong> Plus it can be executed in size. The discount tightened since the March 2020 selloff, and has widened again over the last months, for no obvious reason. The only news that might be related is that Volkswagen is considering a separate listing of its Porsche sports car brand in a deal that could boost its valuation, according to Bloomberg.</p>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/danieli-c-officine-meccaniche" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21177:1" rel="noopener">Danieli &amp; C. Officine Meccaniche (DAN IM)</a>:  the mandatory conversion and extraordinary dividend were approved on the shareholders meetings on 28 October. The conversion date is yet to be announced but expected soon. Since announcement, the <strong>adjusted spread</strong> has ranged between -5.48% and 7.69%. It is currently -1.25%. Long Danieli ords/short Danieli savings shares.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telecom-italia-sp-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21075:1" rel="noopener">Telecom Italia Sp A (TIT IM)</a> savings shares are trading at a 6% premium to ordinary shares (vs. a  7.6% premium by mid-March and 10.7% by mid-February). Challenging macro means that the financial privileges of the savings shares count. More importantly, the market may think of a conversion of savings into ords à la Buzzi Unicem or Danieli. <strong>Short savings/long ords</strong>.</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grifols-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21274:1" rel="noopener">Grifols SA (GRF SM)</a> B shares are trading at a 36.1% discount (vs. 33.6% by mid-March and 39.7% by mid-February), there is a trend towards the tightening of this discount since March 2020 lows. The Covid-related antitakeover provisions issued by the Spanish Government mean that the voting rights are less valuable now. Moreover, the by-laws contain a poison pill that should significantly reduce the discount in case of a takeover attempt. Last but no least, “the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” The discount in Grifols B shares has averaged 28% since listing of the B shares in February 2016. I recommend setting up the trade <strong>long B shares</strong> (traded on Nasdaq), <strong>short A shares </strong>(traded in Madrid). The target is a 27% discount. Please note there is FX risk, which can be hedged.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The current discount in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-copco-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22282:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Copco AB (ATCOA SS)</a> B shares vs. A shares is 13.8% (vs. 14.8% by mid-March). Although there is no catalyst in sight, I recommend setting up <strong>Long B shares/short A shares</strong>, with a target of &gt;10% discount.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The discount in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telefonaktiebolaget-lm-ericsso" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22354:1" rel="noopener">Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsso (ERICB SS)</a> (Ericsson) B shares has tightened to 1.9% (vs. 4.7% by mid-March and 11% by mid-February). The discount is below my target. I would not be surprised if the B shares started trading at a premium.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Other than Industrivärden, the other major shareholder of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ssab-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22492:1" rel="noopener">SSAB AB (SSABA SS)</a> is Solidium Oy (State of Finland). The reversal on the discount from June 2018 has no obvious explanation. The discount has tightened to 6.6% (vs. 7.8% by mid-March, 9.1% by mid-February and 13% by mid-January). I would <strong>short B shares</strong> and go <strong>long A shares</strong>.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The discount of non-voting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/roche-holding-ag-77bd09c9-b0c2-45ea-98f1-6a7ca01dc9c5" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27906:1" rel="noopener">Roche Holding AG (ROG SW)</a> shares has <strong>widened to 5.1%</strong> (vs. 3.9% by mid-March), a level <strong>unreached since May 2012</strong>. The Hoffman family and related holds 45% of the voting rights (shareholder pooling agreement) whilst Novartis holds 33.3% of the voting rights.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The discount in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schroders-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22134:1" rel="noopener">Schroders PLC (SDR LN)</a> has tightened to 27.4% (vs. 30.6% by mid-March and 34.1% by mid-February). I would set up long non-voting/short voting shares.</p>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<p>Please read on for table and charts.</p>
</div>



Trends



Discounts have generally tightened across the European space.



Recommended trades





Carlsberg A/S (CARLB DC) B shares (with 1/10th of the voting rights of the A shares) are trading at a 25.2% discount (12.5% by mid-March) vs. the A shares, demand for illiquid A shares seems to be the explanation. Maintain LONG B shares/short A shares on.


Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW GR) exhibited a trend towards a reduction of the discount of preferred shares, until March 2020. The discount is trading in a range and is now 22.1% (vs. 20.7% by mid-March and 25.2% by mid-December). Maintain long BMW prefs, short common shares on, with a target of a 15% discount.


Fuchs Petrolub SE (FPE GR)'s premium seems to vary within a range, which is probably liquidity related. It is 20.5% (vs. 19.6% by mid-March and down from 29.4% by mid-February and 34.4% in my October report). With over 50% of the ordinary shares, the Fuchs family maintains the majority vote. They have never stated they would consolidate and pride to be the number 1 among the independent suppliers of lubricants.
Although there is no reason why the voting rights should be specially dear in Fuchs's case, voting rights are still valuable and neither the dividend advantage of the preferred shares nor their being members of several midcap indexes (Prime Standard/MDAX; STOXX Europe 600; DAXplus Familiy 30) justify the large premium, in my view. Maintain the trade long common/short prefs on, with a 10% target.


Henkel AG &amp; Co KGaA (HEN3 GR) shows a long-term trend towards a reduction of the premium of the preferred shares. The premium has recently widened and is now 14.9% (vs. 11.9% by mid-March). Maintain the trade short prefs/long common shares with a 10% premium target.


Voting rights are valuable in a company like Volkswagen (VOW GR). Prefs discount had recently widened to erstwhile levels: 16.6% (vs. 31.8% on 18 March, highest since November 2009). Preference shares have in the past traded at a premium due to its higher liquidity and inclusion in stock indexes. That said, the ordinary shares are also liquid. The shareholder structure of Volkswagen is stable, and there seems to be no reason why the discount of the prefs should widen. Preference shares have in the past traded at a premium due to its higher liquidity and inclusion in stock indexes. Recommendation is long prefs/short ords, with the necessary health warning attached to any trading with Volkswagen share classes, as one can never be completely sure of the Porsche/Piech families' plans. Plus it can be executed in size. The discount tightened since the March 2020 selloff, and has widened again over the last months, for no obvious reason. The only news that might be related is that Volkswagen is considering a separate listing of its Porsche sports car brand in a deal that could boost its valuation, according to Bloomberg.






Danieli &amp; C. Officine Meccaniche (DAN IM):  the mandatory conversion and extraordinary dividend were approved on the shareholders meetings on 28 October. The conversion date is yet to be announced but expected soon. Since announcement, the adjusted spread has ranged between -5.48% and 7.69%. It is currently -1.25%. Long Danieli ords/short Danieli savings shares.

Telecom Italia Sp A (TIT IM) savings shares are trading at a 6% premium to ordinary shares (vs. a  7.6% premium by mid-March and 10.7% by mid-February). Challenging macro means that the financial privileges of the savings shares count. More importantly, the market may think of a conversion of savings into ords à la Buzzi Unicem or Danieli. Short savings/long ords.





Grifols SA (GRF SM) B shares are trading at a 36.1% discount (vs. 33.6% by mid-March and 39.7% by mid-February), there is a trend towards the tightening of this discount since March 2020 lows. The Covid-related antitakeover provisions issued by the Spanish Government mean that the voting rights are less valuable now. Moreover, the by-laws contain a poison pill that should significantly reduce the discount in case of a takeover attempt. Last but no least, “the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” The discount in Grifols B shares has averaged 28% since listing of the B shares in February 2016. I recommend setting up the trade long B shares (traded on Nasdaq), short A shares (traded in Madrid). The target is a 27% discount. Please note there is FX risk, which can be hedged.


The current discount in Atlas Copco AB (ATCOA SS) B shares vs. A shares is 13.8% (vs. 14.8% by mid-March). Although there is no catalyst in sight, I recommend setting up Long B shares/short A shares, with a target of &gt;10% discount.


The discount in the Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsso (ERICB SS) (Ericsson) B shares has tightened to 1.9% (vs. 4.7% by mid-March and 11% by mid-February). The discount is below my target. I would not be surprised if the B shares started trading at a premium.


Other than Industrivärden, the other major shareholder of SSAB AB (SSABA SS) is Solidium Oy (State of Finland). The reversal on the discount from June 2018 has no obvious explanation. The discount has tightened to 6.6% (vs. 7.8% by mid-March, 9.1% by mid-February and 13% by mid-January). I would short B shares and go long A shares.


The discount of non-voting Roche Holding AG (ROG SW) shares has widened to 5.1% (vs. 3.9% by mid-March), a level unreached since May 2012. The Hoffman family and related holds 45% of the voting rights (shareholder pooling agreement) whilst Novartis holds 33.3% of the voting rights.


The discount in Schroders PLC (SDR LN) has tightened to 27.4% (vs. 30.6% by mid-March and 34.1% by mid-February). I would set up long non-voting/short voting shares.




Please read on for table and charts.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April Report

<div>
<div>
<h3>Trends</h3>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p>Discounts have generally tightened alongside index gains across the European space.</p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<h3>Recommended trades</h3>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlsberg-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22320:1" rel="noopener">Carlsberg A/S (CARLB DC)</a> B shares are trading at a 12.5% discount (16.6% by mid-February) vs. the A shares (with 10 voting rights per share). <strong>Maintain LONG B shares/short A shares on</strong>.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bayerische-motoren-werke-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21591:1" rel="noopener">Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW GR)</a> exhibited a trend towards a reduction of the discount of preferred shares, until March 2020. The discount is tightening and is now 20.7% (vs. 25.2% by mid-December). <strong>Maintain long BMW prefs, short common shares on</strong>, with a target of a 15% discount.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuchs-petrolub-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21624:1" rel="noopener">Fuchs Petrolub SE (FPE GR)</a> 's premium seems to vary within a range, which is probably liquidity related. It is 19.6% (down from 29.4% by mid-February and 34.4% in my October report). With over 50% of the ordinary shares, the Fuchs family maintains the majority vote. They have never stated they would consolidate and pride to be the number 1 among the independent suppliers of lubricants.</p>
<p>Although there is no reason why the voting rights should be specially dear in Fuchs's case, voting rights are still valuable and neither the dividend advantage of the preferred shares nor their being members of several midcap indexes (Prime Standard/MDAX; STOXX Europe 600; DAXplus Familiy 30) justify the large premium, in my view. Maintain the <strong>trade long ords/short prefs on</strong>, with a 10% target.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/henkel-ag-co-kgaa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21646:1" rel="noopener">Henkel AG &amp; Co KGaA (HEN3 GR)</a> shows a long-term trend towards a reduction of the premium of the preferred shares. The <strong>premium</strong> has recently tightened and is now <strong>11.9%</strong>. Maintain the trade <strong>short prefs/long common shares</strong> with a 10% premium target.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Voting rights are valuable in a company like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/volkswagen-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21738:1" rel="noopener">Volkswagen (VOW GR)</a>. Prefs discount was widened to erstwhile levels: 17.6 (vs. 10.7% by mid-February and 4.9% discount in November). Preference shares have in the past traded at a premium due to its higher liquidity and inclusion in stock indexes. That said, the ordinary shares are also liquid. The shareholder structure of Volkswagen is stable, and there seems to be no reason why the discount of the prefs should widen. Preference shares have in the past traded at a premium due to its higher liquidity and inclusion in stock indexes. Recommendation is l<strong>ong prefs/short ords</strong>. Plus it can be executed in size. The discount tightened since the March 2020 selloff and has widened again over the last months, for no obvious reason. The only news that might be related is that Volkswagen is considering a separate listing of its Porsche sports car brand in a deal that could boost its valuation, according to Bloomberg.</p>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/danieli-c-officine-meccaniche" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21177:1" rel="noopener">Danieli &amp; C. Officine Meccaniche (DAN IM)</a>:  the mandatory conversion and extraordinary dividend were approved on the shareholders meetings on 28 October. The conversion date is yet to be announced but expected soon. Since announcement, the adjusted spread has ranged between -5.5% and 5.9%. It is currently <strong>2.44%</strong>. <strong>Long Danieli ords/short Danieli savings shares</strong>. Volume was unusually high on 12 March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telecom-italia-sp-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21075:1" rel="noopener">Telecom Italia Sp A (TIT IM)</a> savings shares are trading at a 7.6% premium to ordinary shares (vs. a 10.7% premium by mid-February). Challenging macro means that the financial privileges of the savings shares count. More importantly, the market may think of a conversion of savings into ords à la Buzzi Unicem or Danieli. <strong>Short savings/long ords</strong>.</li>
</ul>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grifols-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21274:1" rel="noopener">Grifols SA (GRF SM)</a> B shares are trading at a <strong>33.6% discount</strong> (vs. 39.7% by mid-February), there is a trend towards the tightening of this discount since mid-March. The Covid-related antitakeover provisions issued by the Spanish Government mean that the voting rights are less valuable now. Moreover, the by-laws contain a poison pill that should significantly reduce the discount in case of a takeover attempt. Last but no least, “the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” The discount in Grifols B shares has averaged 28% since listing of the B shares in February 2016. I recommend setting up the trade <strong>long B shares traded on Nasdaq, short A shares traded in Madrid</strong>. The target is a 27% discount. Please note there is FX risk, which can be hedged.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The current discount in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-copco-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22282:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Copco AB (ATCOA SS)</a> B shares vs. A shares is 14.8% (vs. 14.1% by mid-February). Although there is no catalyst in sight, I recommend setting up <strong>Long B shares/short A shares</strong>, with a target of &gt;10% discount.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The discount in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telefonaktiebolaget-lm-ericsso" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22354:1" rel="noopener">Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsso (ERICB SS)</a> (Ericsson) B shares has <strong>tightened to 4.7%</strong> (vs. 11% by mid-February). Maintain the trade Long B shares/short A shares on, with a 3% discount target.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Other than Industrivärden, the other major shareholder of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ssab-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22492:1" rel="noopener">SSAB AB (SSABA SS)</a> is Solidium Oy (State of Finland). The reversal on the discount from June 2018 has no obvious explanation. The discount has tightened to 7.8% (vs. 9.1% by mid-February and 13% by mid-January). I would<strong> short B shares and go long A shares</strong>.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The discount of non-voting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/roche-holding-ag-77bd09c9-b0c2-45ea-98f1-6a7ca01dc9c5" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27906:1" rel="noopener">Roche Holding AG (ROG SW)</a> shares has widened to 3.9% (vs. 2.7% by mid-February). Considering past-performance, it seems an interesting level to set up long non-voting/short bearer shares. The Hoffman family and related holds 45% of the voting rights (shareholder pooling agreement) whilst Novartis holds 33.3% of the voting rights.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The discount in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schroders-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22134:1" rel="noopener">Schroders PLC (SDR LN)</a> reflects Schroders' way of corporate governance and the influence of family control (45.4% voting rights with a 36% economic interest). The discount is now 30.6% (vs. 34.1% by mid-February), but it reached 42% on 19 May. I would set up long non-voting/short voting shares.</p>
<p>Over 2020, Schroders cancelled 9 mn voting shares, but only 100k non-voting. Considering the discount, it would create value cancelling non-voting stock, but the company did the opposite.</p>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<p><em>Please read on for table and charts</em>.</p>
</div>



Trends



Discounts have generally tightened alongside index gains across the European space.



Recommended trades





Carlsberg A/S (CARLB DC) B shares are trading at a 12.5% discount (16.6% by mid-February) vs. the A shares (with 10 voting rights per share). Maintain LONG B shares/short A shares on.


Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW GR) exhibited a trend towards a reduction of the discount of preferred shares, until March 2020. The discount is tightening and is now 20.7% (vs. 25.2% by mid-December). Maintain long BMW prefs, short common shares on, with a target of a 15% discount.


Fuchs Petrolub SE (FPE GR) 's premium seems to vary within a range, which is probably liquidity related. It is 19.6% (down from 29.4% by mid-February and 34.4% in my October report). With over 50% of the ordinary shares, the Fuchs family maintains the majority vote. They have never stated they would consolidate and pride to be the number 1 among the independent suppliers of lubricants.
Although there is no reason why the voting rights should be specially dear in Fuchs's case, voting rights are still valuable and neither the dividend advantage of the preferred shares nor their being members of several midcap indexes (Prime Standard/MDAX; STOXX Europe 600; DAXplus Familiy 30) justify the large premium, in my view. Maintain the trade long ords/short prefs on, with a 10% target.


Henkel AG &amp; Co KGaA (HEN3 GR) shows a long-term trend towards a reduction of the premium of the preferred shares. The premium has recently tightened and is now 11.9%. Maintain the trade short prefs/long common shares with a 10% premium target.


Voting rights are valuable in a company like Volkswagen (VOW GR). Prefs discount was widened to erstwhile levels: 17.6 (vs. 10.7% by mid-February and 4.9% discount in November). Preference shares have in the past traded at a premium due to its higher liquidity and inclusion in stock indexes. That said, the ordinary shares are also liquid. The shareholder structure of Volkswagen is stable, and there seems to be no reason why the discount of the prefs should widen. Preference shares have in the past traded at a premium due to its higher liquidity and inclusion in stock indexes. Recommendation is long prefs/short ords. Plus it can be executed in size. The discount tightened since the March 2020 selloff and has widened again over the last months, for no obvious reason. The only news that might be related is that Volkswagen is considering a separate listing of its Porsche sports car brand in a deal that could boost its valuation, according to Bloomberg.





Danieli &amp; C. Officine Meccaniche (DAN IM):  the mandatory conversion and extraordinary dividend were approved on the shareholders meetings on 28 October. The conversion date is yet to be announced but expected soon. Since announcement, the adjusted spread has ranged between -5.5% and 5.9%. It is currently 2.44%. Long Danieli ords/short Danieli savings shares. Volume was unusually high on 12 March.

Telecom Italia Sp A (TIT IM) savings shares are trading at a 7.6% premium to ordinary shares (vs. a 10.7% premium by mid-February). Challenging macro means that the financial privileges of the savings shares count. More importantly, the market may think of a conversion of savings into ords à la Buzzi Unicem or Danieli. Short savings/long ords.




Grifols SA (GRF SM) B shares are trading at a 33.6% discount (vs. 39.7% by mid-February), there is a trend towards the tightening of this discount since mid-March. The Covid-related antitakeover provisions issued by the Spanish Government mean that the voting rights are less valuable now. Moreover, the by-laws contain a poison pill that should significantly reduce the discount in case of a takeover attempt. Last but no least, “the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” The discount in Grifols B shares has averaged 28% since listing of the B shares in February 2016. I recommend setting up the trade long B shares traded on Nasdaq, short A shares traded in Madrid. The target is a 27% discount. Please note there is FX risk, which can be hedged.


The current discount in Atlas Copco AB (ATCOA SS) B shares vs. A shares is 14.8% (vs. 14.1% by mid-February). Although there is no catalyst in sight, I recommend setting up Long B shares/short A shares, with a target of &gt;10% discount.


The discount in the Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsso (ERICB SS) (Ericsson) B shares has tightened to 4.7% (vs. 11% by mid-February). Maintain the trade Long B shares/short A shares on, with a 3% discount target.


Other than Industrivärden, the other major shareholder of SSAB AB (SSABA SS) is Solidium Oy (State of Finland). The reversal on the discount from June 2018 has no obvious explanation. The discount has tightened to 7.8% (vs. 9.1% by mid-February and 13% by mid-January). I would short B shares and go long A shares.


The discount of non-voting Roche Holding AG (ROG SW) shares has widened to 3.9% (vs. 2.7% by mid-February). Considering past-performance, it seems an interesting level to set up long non-voting/short bearer shares. The Hoffman family and related holds 45% of the voting rights (shareholder pooling agreement) whilst Novartis holds 33.3% of the voting rights.


The discount in Schroders PLC (SDR LN) reflects Schroders' way of corporate governance and the influence of family control (45.4% voting rights with a 36% economic interest). The discount is now 30.6% (vs. 34.1% by mid-February), but it reached 42% on 19 May. I would set up long non-voting/short voting shares.
Over 2020, Schroders cancelled 9 mn voting shares, but only 100k non-voting. Considering the discount, it would create value cancelling non-voting stock, but the company did the opposite.




Please read on for table and charts.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March Report

Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsso / Event-Driven

<div>
<div>
<h3>Trends</h3>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p>Mixed: discounts have generally widened across the European space.</p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<h3>Recommended trades</h3>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlsberg-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22320:1" rel="noopener">Carlsberg A/S (CARLB DC)</a> B shares are trading at a 16.6% discount (7.5% by mid-January and 4.3% by mid-December) vs. the A shares. This is an interesting level to set up a mean reversion trade LONG B shares/short A shares, in my view.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bayerische-motoren-werke-ag" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bayerische-motoren-werke-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21591:1" rel="noopener">Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW GR)</a> exhibited a trend towards a reduction of the discount of preferred shares, until March 2020. The discount is tightening and is now 20.5% (vs. 25.2% by mid-December). I would keep the trade long BMW prefs, short common shares on, with a target of a 15% discount.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuchs-petrolub-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21624:1" rel="noopener">Fuchs Petrolub SE (FPE GR)</a> 's premium seems to vary within a range, which is probably liquidity related. It is 29.4% (vs. 29.9% by mid-December and 34.4% in my October report). With over 50% of the ordinary shares, the Fuchs family maintains the majority vote. They have never stated they would consolidate and pride to be the number 1 among the independent suppliers of lubricants.</p>
<p>Although there is no reason why the voting rights should be specially dear in Fuchs's case, voting rights are still valuable and neither the dividend advantage of the preferred shares nor their being members of several midcap indexes (Prime Standard/MDAX; STOXX Europe 600; DAXplus Familiy 30) justify the large premium, in my view. Maintain the trade long ords/short prefs, with a 10% target.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/henkel-ag-co-kgaa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21646:1" rel="noopener">Henkel AG &amp; Co KGaA (HEN3 GR)</a> shows a long-term trend towards a reduction of the premium of the preferred shares. The premium has recently tightened and is now 11.8%. Maintain the trade short prefs/long common shares with a 10% premium target.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Voting rights are valuable in a company like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/volkswagen-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21738:1" rel="noopener">Volkswagen (VOW GR)</a>. Prefs discount is 10.7% (vs. 8% by mid-December and 4.9% discount in November). It has moved sideways since mid-September. Preference shares have in the past traded at a premium due to its higher liquidity and inclusion in stock indexes. That said, the ordinary shares are also liquid. The shareholder structure of Volkswagen is stable, and there seems to be no reason why the discount of the prefs should widen. Preference shares have in the past traded at a premium due to its higher liquidity and inclusion in stock indexes. Recommendation is long prefs/short ords. Plus it can be executed in size. The discount tightened since the March 2020 selloff and has widened again over the last months, for no obvious reason.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/buzzi-unicem-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21146:1" rel="noopener">Buzzi Unicem (BZU IM)</a>: from 18 January 2021 the mandatory conversion of the savings shares into ordinary shares will be effective and therefore, from that date only ordinary shares are traded;</p>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/danieli-c-officine-meccaniche" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21177:1" rel="noopener">Danieli &amp; C. Officine Meccaniche (DAN IM)</a>:  the mandatory conversion and extraordinary dividend were approved on the shareholders meetings on 28 October. The conversion date is yet to be announced but expected soon. Since announcement, the adjusted spread has ranged between -5.48% and 5.9%. It is currently 0.64%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telecom-italia-sp-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21075:1" rel="noopener">Telecom Italia Sp A (TIT IM)</a> savings shares are trading at a 10.7% premium to ordinary shares (vs. a 9.5% premium by mid-January). Challenging macro means that the financial privileges of the savings shares count. More importantly, the market may think of a conversion of savings into ords à la Buzzi Unicem or Danieli. Short savings/long ords.</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grifols-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21274:1" rel="noopener">Grifols SA (GRF SM)</a> B shares are trading at a 39.7% discount (vs. 34.1% by mid-January, 35.2% by mid-December, 38.5% in November and 41.9% by mid-September), there is a trend towards the tightening of this discount since mid-March. The Covid-related antitakeover provisions issued by the Spanish Government mean that the voting rights are less valuable now. Moreover, the by-laws contain a poison pill that should significantly reduce the discount in case of a takeover attempt. Last but no least, “the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” The discount in Grifols B shares has averaged 28% since listing of the B shares in February 2016. I recommend setting up the trade long B shares traded on Nasdaq, short A shares traded in Madrid. The target is a 27% discount. Please note there is FX risk, which can be hedged.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The current discount in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-copco-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22282:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Copco AB (ATCOA SS)</a> B shares vs. A shares is 14.1% (vs. 12.9% by mid-January, 13.1% by mid-December and 12.7% by mid-November). Although there is no catalyst in sight, I recommend setting up Long B shares/short A shares, with a target of &gt;10% discount.</p>
</li>
<li>The discount in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telefonaktiebolaget-lm-ericsso" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22354:1" rel="noopener">Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsso (ERICB SS)</a> (Ericsson) B shares has widened to 11%. I would set up the trade Long B shares/short A shares with a 3% discount target.</li>
<li>
<p>Other than Industrivärden, the other major shareholder of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ssab-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22492:1" rel="noopener">SSAB AB (SSABA SS)</a> is Solidium Oy (State of Finland). The reversal on the discount over the last 15 months has no obvious explanation. The discount has tightened to 9.1% (vs. 13% by mid-January, 12.2% by mid-December and 8% by mid-November). I would short B shares and go long A shares.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The discount of non-voting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/roche-holding-ag-77bd09c9-b0c2-45ea-98f1-6a7ca01dc9c5" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27906:1" rel="noopener">Roche Holding AG (ROG SW)</a> shares has widened to 2.7%. Considering past-performance, it seems an interesting level to set up long non-voting/short bearer shares. The Hoffman family and related holds 45% of the voting rights (shareholder pooling agreement) whilst Novartis holds 33.3% of the voting rights.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The discount in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schroders-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22134:1" rel="noopener">Schroders PLC (SDR LN)</a> reflects Schroders' way of corporate governance and the influence of family control (45.4% voting rights with a 36% economic interest). The discount is now 34.1% (vs 34.9% by mid-December and 33.4% by mid-November), but it reached 42% on 19 May. I would set up long non-voting/short voting shares.</p>
<p>Over 2020, Schroders cancelled 9 mn voting shares, but only 100k non-voting. Considering the discount, it would create value cancelling non-voting stock, but the company did the opposite.</p>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<p><em>Please read on for table and charts</em>.</p>
</div>



Trends



Mixed: discounts have generally widened across the European space.



Recommended trades





Carlsberg A/S (CARLB DC) B shares are trading at a 16.6% discount (7.5% by mid-January and 4.3% by mid-December) vs. the A shares. This is an interesting level to set up a mean reversion trade LONG B shares/short A shares, in my view.


Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW GR) exhibited a trend towards a reduction of the discount of preferred shares, until March 2020. The discount is tightening and is now 20.5% (vs. 25.2% by mid-December). I would keep the trade long BMW prefs, short common shares on, with a target of a 15% discount.


Fuchs Petrolub SE (FPE GR) 's premium seems to vary within a range, which is probably liquidity related. It is 29.4% (vs. 29.9% by mid-December and 34.4% in my October report). With over 50% of the ordinary shares, the Fuchs family maintains the majority vote. They have never stated they would consolidate and pride to be the number 1 among the independent suppliers of lubricants.
Although there is no reason why the voting rights should be specially dear in Fuchs's case, voting rights are still valuable and neither the dividend advantage of the preferred shares nor their being members of several midcap indexes (Prime Standard/MDAX; STOXX Europe 600; DAXplus Familiy 30) justify the large premium, in my view. Maintain the trade long ords/short prefs, with a 10% target.


Henkel AG &amp; Co KGaA (HEN3 GR) shows a long-term trend towards a reduction of the premium of the preferred shares. The premium has recently tightened and is now 11.8%. Maintain the trade short prefs/long common shares with a 10% premium target.


Voting rights are valuable in a company like Volkswagen (VOW GR). Prefs discount is 10.7% (vs. 8% by mid-December and 4.9% discount in November). It has moved sideways since mid-September. Preference shares have in the past traded at a premium due to its higher liquidity and inclusion in stock indexes. That said, the ordinary shares are also liquid. The shareholder structure of Volkswagen is stable, and there seems to be no reason why the discount of the prefs should widen. Preference shares have in the past traded at a premium due to its higher liquidity and inclusion in stock indexes. Recommendation is long prefs/short ords. Plus it can be executed in size. The discount tightened since the March 2020 selloff and has widened again over the last months, for no obvious reason.


Buzzi Unicem (BZU IM): from 18 January 2021 the mandatory conversion of the savings shares into ordinary shares will be effective and therefore, from that date only ordinary shares are traded;






Danieli &amp; C. Officine Meccaniche (DAN IM):  the mandatory conversion and extraordinary dividend were approved on the shareholders meetings on 28 October. The conversion date is yet to be announced but expected soon. Since announcement, the adjusted spread has ranged between -5.48% and 5.9%. It is currently 0.64%.

Telecom Italia Sp A (TIT IM) savings shares are trading at a 10.7% premium to ordinary shares (vs. a 9.5% premium by mid-January). Challenging macro means that the financial privileges of the savings shares count. More importantly, the market may think of a conversion of savings into ords à la Buzzi Unicem or Danieli. Short savings/long ords.





Grifols SA (GRF SM) B shares are trading at a 39.7% discount (vs. 34.1% by mid-January, 35.2% by mid-December, 38.5% in November and 41.9% by mid-September), there is a trend towards the tightening of this discount since mid-March. The Covid-related antitakeover provisions issued by the Spanish Government mean that the voting rights are less valuable now. Moreover, the by-laws contain a poison pill that should significantly reduce the discount in case of a takeover attempt. Last but no least, “the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” The discount in Grifols B shares has averaged 28% since listing of the B shares in February 2016. I recommend setting up the trade long B shares traded on Nasdaq, short A shares traded in Madrid. The target is a 27% discount. Please note there is FX risk, which can be hedged.


The current discount in Atlas Copco AB (ATCOA SS) B shares vs. A shares is 14.1% (vs. 12.9% by mid-January, 13.1% by mid-December and 12.7% by mid-November). Although there is no catalyst in sight, I recommend setting up Long B shares/short A shares, with a target of &gt;10% discount.

The discount in the Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsso (ERICB SS) (Ericsson) B shares has widened to 11%. I would set up the trade Long B shares/short A shares with a 3% discount target.

Other than Industrivärden, the other major shareholder of SSAB AB (SSABA SS) is Solidium Oy (State of Finland). The reversal on the discount over the last 15 months has no obvious explanation. The discount has tightened to 9.1% (vs. 13% by mid-January, 12.2% by mid-December and 8% by mid-November). I would short B shares and go long A shares.


The discount of non-voting Roche Holding AG (ROG SW) shares has widened to 2.7%. Considering past-performance, it seems an interesting level to set up long non-voting/short bearer shares. The Hoffman family and related holds 45% of the voting rights (shareholder pooling agreement) whilst Novartis holds 33.3% of the voting rights.


The discount in Schroders PLC (SDR LN) reflects Schroders' way of corporate governance and the influence of family control (45.4% voting rights with a 36% economic interest). The discount is now 34.1% (vs 34.9% by mid-December and 33.4% by mid-November), but it reached 42% on 19 May. I would set up long non-voting/short voting shares.
Over 2020, Schroders cancelled 9 mn voting shares, but only 100k non-voting. Considering the discount, it would create value cancelling non-voting stock, but the company did the opposite.




Please read on for table and charts.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February Report

<div>
<div>
<h3>Trends</h3>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p>Discounts have generally tightened across the European space.</p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<h3>Recommended trades</h3>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bayerische-motoren-werke-ag" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bayerische-motoren-werke-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21591:1" rel="noopener">Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW GR)</a> exhibited a trend towards a reduction of the discount of preferred shares, until March. The <strong>discount is widening, and is now 25.2%</strong>. I would recommend setting up a trade long BMW prefs, short common shares with a target of a 15% discount.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuchs-petrolub-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21624:1" rel="noopener">Fuchs Petrolub SE (FPE GR)</a> 's <strong>premium</strong> seems to vary within a range, which is probably liquidity related. It is <strong>29.9%</strong> (vs. 34.4% in my October report). Remember that voting rights are valuable. Maintain the trade long ords/short prefs, with a 10% target.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/henkel-ag-co-kgaa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21646:1" rel="noopener">Henkel AG &amp; Co KGaA (HEN3 GR)</a> shows a long-term trend towards a reduction of the premium of the preferred shares. The premium has widened since the beginning of November and is 13.6%. Maintain the trade long prefs/short common shares with a 10% premium target.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Voting rights are valuable in a company like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/volkswagen-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21738:1" rel="noopener">Volkswagen (VOW GR).</a><strong>Prefs discount is 8%</strong> (vs. 4.9% discount in November). It has moved sideways since mid-September. Preference shares have in the past traded at a premium due to its higher liquidity and inclusion in stock indexes. Recommendation is long  prefs/short ords. Plus it can be executed in size. The discount tightened since the March selloff and has been moving within a tight range.</p>
</li>
<li>
<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/buzzi-unicem-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21146:1" rel="noopener">Buzzi Unicem (BZU IM)</a>: since announcement of the conversion ratio, the spread has moved between 2.5% and -0.37%. The current spread is 0.27%. There is not definitive date for the conversion, but the market believes it will happen very soon.</p>
</div>
</li>
</ul>
<div>
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/danieli-c-officine-meccaniche" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21177:1" rel="noopener">Danieli &amp; C. Officine Meccaniche (DAN IM)</a>:  the mandatory conversion and extraordinary dividend were approved on the shareholders meetings on 28 October. The conversion date is yet to be announced but expected soon. Since announcement, the <strong>adjusted spread</strong> has ranged between -2.1% and 4.6%. It is currently <strong>-3.27%</strong>. I recommend <strong>long Danieli ords/short Danieli savings shares</strong>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telecom-italia-sp-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21075:1" rel="noopener">Telecom Italia Sp A (TIT IM)</a> savings shares are trading at a 9.3% premium to ordinary shares. Challenging macro means that the financial privileges of the savings shares count. More importantly, the market may think of a conversion of savings into ords like Buzzi Unicem or Danieli.</li>
</ul>
</div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grifols-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21274:1" rel="noopener">Grifols SA (GRF SM)</a><strong>B shares are trading at a 35.2% discount</strong> (vs. 41.9 by mid-September, and 38.5% in November), there is a trend towards the tightening of this discount since mid-March. The Covid-related antitakeover provisions issued by the Spanish Government mean that the voting rights are less valuable now. The discount in Grifols B shares has averaged 28% since listing of the B shares in February 2016. I recommend setting up the trade long B shares traded on Nasdaq, short A shares traded in Madrid. The target is a 27% discount. Please note there is FX risk, which can be hedged.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The current discount in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-copco-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22282:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Copco AB (ATCOA SS)</a> B shares vs. A shares is <strong>13.1%</strong> (vs. 12.7% by mid-November). I recommend setting up Long B shares/short A shares, with a target of &gt;10% discount.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Other than Industrivärden, the other major shareholder of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ssab-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22492:1" rel="noopener">SSAB AB (SSABA SS)</a> is Solidium Oy (State of Finland). The reversal on the discount over the last 15 months has no obvious explanation. The discount has widened recently to 12.2% (vs. 8% by mid-November). I would <strong>short B shares and go long A shares</strong>.</p>
</li>
<li>
<div>
<p>The discount in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schroders-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22134:1" rel="noopener">Schroders PLC (SDR LN)</a> reflects Schroders' way of corporate governance and the influence of family control. The discount is now 34.9% (vs. 33.4% by mid-November and 27% by mid-September), but it reached 42% on 19 May. I would set up <strong>long non-voting/short voting</strong> shares.</p>
</div>
</li>
</ul>
<div id="annotable-executive_summary-4"></div>
</div>
<div>
<p><em>Please read on for table and charts</em>.</p>
</div>



Trends



Discounts have generally tightened across the European space.



Recommended trades






Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW GR) exhibited a trend towards a reduction of the discount of preferred shares, until March. The discount is widening, and is now 25.2%. I would recommend setting up a trade long BMW prefs, short common shares with a target of a 15% discount.


Fuchs Petrolub SE (FPE GR) 's premium seems to vary within a range, which is probably liquidity related. It is 29.9% (vs. 34.4% in my October report). Remember that voting rights are valuable. Maintain the trade long ords/short prefs, with a 10% target.


Henkel AG &amp; Co KGaA (HEN3 GR) shows a long-term trend towards a reduction of the premium of the preferred shares. The premium has widened since the beginning of November and is 13.6%. Maintain the trade long prefs/short common shares with a 10% premium target.


Voting rights are valuable in a company like Volkswagen (VOW GR).Prefs discount is 8% (vs. 4.9% discount in November). It has moved sideways since mid-September. Preference shares have in the past traded at a premium due to its higher liquidity and inclusion in stock indexes. Recommendation is long  prefs/short ords. Plus it can be executed in size. The discount tightened since the March selloff and has been moving within a tight range.



Buzzi Unicem (BZU IM): since announcement of the conversion ratio, the spread has moved between 2.5% and -0.37%. The current spread is 0.27%. There is not definitive date for the conversion, but the market believes it will happen very soon.






Danieli &amp; C. Officine Meccaniche (DAN IM):  the mandatory conversion and extraordinary dividend were approved on the shareholders meetings on 28 October. The conversion date is yet to be announced but expected soon. Since announcement, the adjusted spread has ranged between -2.1% and 4.6%. It is currently -3.27%. I recommend long Danieli ords/short Danieli savings shares.

Telecom Italia Sp A (TIT IM) savings shares are trading at a 9.3% premium to ordinary shares. Challenging macro means that the financial privileges of the savings shares count. More importantly, the market may think of a conversion of savings into ords like Buzzi Unicem or Danieli.




Grifols SA (GRF SM)B shares are trading at a 35.2% discount (vs. 41.9 by mid-September, and 38.5% in November), there is a trend towards the tightening of this discount since mid-March. The Covid-related antitakeover provisions issued by the Spanish Government mean that the voting rights are less valuable now. The discount in Grifols B shares has averaged 28% since listing of the B shares in February 2016. I recommend setting up the trade long B shares traded on Nasdaq, short A shares traded in Madrid. The target is a 27% discount. Please note there is FX risk, which can be hedged.


The current discount in Atlas Copco AB (ATCOA SS) B shares vs. A shares is 13.1% (vs. 12.7% by mid-November). I recommend setting up Long B shares/short A shares, with a target of &gt;10% discount.


Other than Industrivärden, the other major shareholder of SSAB AB (SSABA SS) is Solidium Oy (State of Finland). The reversal on the discount over the last 15 months has no obvious explanation. The discount has widened recently to 12.2% (vs. 8% by mid-November). I would short B shares and go long A shares.



The discount in Schroders PLC (SDR LN) reflects Schroders' way of corporate governance and the influence of family control. The discount is now 34.9% (vs. 33.4% by mid-November and 27% by mid-September), but it reached 42% on 19 May. I would set up long non-voting/short voting shares.






Please read on for table and charts.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December Report

Bayerische Motoren Werke (BMW) / Event-Driven

<div>
<div>
<h3>Trends</h3>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p>Discounts have generally tightened across the European space, in line with stock markets recovering.</p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<h3>Recommended trades</h3>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bayerische-motoren-werke-ag" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bayerische-motoren-werke-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21591:1" rel="noopener">Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW GR)</a> : the discount has traded sideways since mid-September, and is now 23.7%. I would recommend setting up a trade long BMW prefs, short common shares with a target of a 15% discount.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuchs-petrolub-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21624:1" rel="noopener">Fuchs Petrolub SE (FPE GR)</a> 's premium seems to vary within a range, which is probably liquidity related. It is 27% (vs. 34.4% in my October report). Remember that voting rights are valuable. Maintain the trade long ords/short prefs, with a 10% target.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/henkel-ag-co-kgaa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21646:1" rel="noopener">Henkel AG &amp; Co KGaA (HEN3 GR)</a> shows a long-term trend towards a reduction of the premium of the preferred shares. The premium is 12.3% (down from 15.4% in my September report, and 13% in October). Maintain the trade long prefs/short common shares with a 10% premium target.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Voting rights are valuable in a company like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/volkswagen-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21738:1" rel="noopener">Volkswagen (VOW GR)</a> , so a 4.9% discount of the prefs. seems about right (5.8% by mid-October).  It has moved sideways since mid-September. Preference shares have in the past traded at a premium due to its higher liquidity and inclusion in stock indexes. If you believe that this higher liquidity will mean that the discount will close, then a long prefs/ short common shares may be an option; plus it can be executed in size. The discount tightened since the March selloff and has been moving within a tight range.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>A 36% discount of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/danieli-c-officine-meccanich" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21177:1" rel="noopener">Danieli &amp; C Officine Meccanich (DAN IM)</a> savers (vs. 37.5% in September and 39% in June) seems still too wide, and low liquidity does not help. I keep on recommending long savers/short ordinaries. A 30% discount is not a demanding target.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grifols-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21274:1" rel="noopener">Grifols SA (GRF SM)</a> B shares are trading at a 38.5% discount (vs. 41.9 by mid-September), there is a trend towards the tightening of this discount since mid-March. The discount in Grifols B shares has averaged 28% since listing of the B shares in February 2016. I recommend setting up the trade long B shares traded on Nasdaq, short A shares traded in Madrid. The target is a 27% discount. Please note there is FX risk, which can be hedged.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The current discount in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-copco-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22282:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Copco AB (ATCOA SS)</a> B shares vs. A shares is 12.7% (vs. 13.2% by mid-October). I recommend setting up Long B shares/short A shares, with a target of &gt;10% discount.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Other than Industrivärden, the other major shareholder of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ssab-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22492:1" rel="noopener">SSAB AB (SSABA SS)</a> is Solidium Oy (State of Finland). The reversal on the discount over the last 15 months has no obvious explanation. The discount has widened recently to 8%. If anything, I would short B shares and go long A shares.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The discount is now 33.4% (vs. 32.7% by mid-October and 27% by mid-September), but it reached 42% on 19 May. I would set up long non-voting/short voting shares.</p>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<p><em>Please read on for table and charts</em>.</p>
</div>



Trends



Discounts have generally tightened across the European space, in line with stock markets recovering.



Recommended trades






Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW GR) : the discount has traded sideways since mid-September, and is now 23.7%. I would recommend setting up a trade long BMW prefs, short common shares with a target of a 15% discount.


Fuchs Petrolub SE (FPE GR) 's premium seems to vary within a range, which is probably liquidity related. It is 27% (vs. 34.4% in my October report). Remember that voting rights are valuable. Maintain the trade long ords/short prefs, with a 10% target.


Henkel AG &amp; Co KGaA (HEN3 GR) shows a long-term trend towards a reduction of the premium of the preferred shares. The premium is 12.3% (down from 15.4% in my September report, and 13% in October). Maintain the trade long prefs/short common shares with a 10% premium target.


Voting rights are valuable in a company like Volkswagen (VOW GR) , so a 4.9% discount of the prefs. seems about right (5.8% by mid-October).  It has moved sideways since mid-September. Preference shares have in the past traded at a premium due to its higher liquidity and inclusion in stock indexes. If you believe that this higher liquidity will mean that the discount will close, then a long prefs/ short common shares may be an option; plus it can be executed in size. The discount tightened since the March selloff and has been moving within a tight range.


A 36% discount of Danieli &amp; C Officine Meccanich (DAN IM) savers (vs. 37.5% in September and 39% in June) seems still too wide, and low liquidity does not help. I keep on recommending long savers/short ordinaries. A 30% discount is not a demanding target.


Grifols SA (GRF SM) B shares are trading at a 38.5% discount (vs. 41.9 by mid-September), there is a trend towards the tightening of this discount since mid-March. The discount in Grifols B shares has averaged 28% since listing of the B shares in February 2016. I recommend setting up the trade long B shares traded on Nasdaq, short A shares traded in Madrid. The target is a 27% discount. Please note there is FX risk, which can be hedged.


The current discount in Atlas Copco AB (ATCOA SS) B shares vs. A shares is 12.7% (vs. 13.2% by mid-October). I recommend setting up Long B shares/short A shares, with a target of &gt;10% discount.


Other than Industrivärden, the other major shareholder of SSAB AB (SSABA SS) is Solidium Oy (State of Finland). The reversal on the discount over the last 15 months has no obvious explanation. The discount has widened recently to 8%. If anything, I would short B shares and go long A shares.


The discount is now 33.4% (vs. 32.7% by mid-October and 27% by mid-September), but it reached 42% on 19 May. I would set up long non-voting/short voting shares.




Please read on for table and charts.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November Report

Denmark

Carlsberg A/S is an international brewing company. The Company produces branded beers and regional brands. Carlsberg makes most of its beer outside of Denmark, and it is sold in markets around the world. The Company also markets and produces soft drinks, water, and wine.

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Carlsberg A/S (CARLB DC)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April Report

Discounts have generally tightened across the European liquid universe. interesting situations are: Carlsberg, BMW, Fuchs, Henkel, VW, Telecom...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March Report

Discounts have generally tightened across the European space. Interesting situations are: BMW, Fuchs Petrolub, Henkel, Volkswagen, Danieli, Telecom...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February Report

Spreads have generally widened across the European liquid universe. Interesting long/short situations are: Carlsberg, BMW, Fuchs Petrolub, Henkel,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December Report

Discounts and Premiums have generally tightened across the European Space. Compelling situations are: VOW, Danieli, Telecom Italia, Grifols and SSAB.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November Report

Discounts have generally tightened across the European space, in line with stock markets recovering. There are some trading opportunities flagged...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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