Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN) C; Target price of A$0.50 per share: Good well results in Colombia – The RCE-3 well flowed naturally at rates equivalent to 2,000 bbl/d gross for four hours after unloading kill fluid.</li><li>Calima Energy (CE1 AU)C; Target price of A$0.50 per share: High condensate yield in the Montney and lower costs – The Calima #2’s peak 24 hour condensate rate was 396 bbl/d at a rate of 3.4 mmcf/d gas.</li><li>YE22 production was 53 mboe/d with 90% of oil production evacuated through the Amukpe to Escravos pipeline rather than the Trans Forcados.</li></ul>

Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN) C; Target price of A$0.50 per share: Good well results in Colombia – The RCE-3 well flowed naturally at rates equivalent to 2,000 bbl/d gross for four hours after unloading kill fluid.Calima Energy (CE1 AU)C; Target price of A$0.50 per share: High condensate yield in the Montney and lower costs – The Calima #2’s peak 24 hour condensate rate was 396 bbl/d at a rate of 3.4 mmcf/d gas.YE22 production was 53 mboe/d with 90% of oil production evacuated through the Amukpe to Escravos pipeline rather than the Trans Forcados.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Positive testing results opens the Montney - Calima has so far obtained very good results from the re-testing of the Calima #2 and Calima #3 wells.</li><li>This could de-risk the initial development of the Montney with potential for production in 2024.</li><li>This could also materially increase the likelihood of attracting an industry partner. </li></ul>

Positive testing results opens the Montney - Calima has so far obtained very good results from the re-testing of the Calima #2 and Calima #3 wells.This could de-risk the initial development of the Montney with potential for production in 2024.This could also materially increase the likelihood of attracting an industry partner. 

<ul><li>GeoPark (GPRK US)C: Target price of US$31 per share:Two new strong development wells at CPO-5 – Two new development wells, Indico 6 and Indico 7, tested over 11,000 bbl/d gross (in aggregate) with hardly any water (Indico 6: 6,270 bbl/d, Indico 7: 5,245 bbl/d).</li><li>This would take gross production from the field from ~20 mbbl/d in 4Q22 to 25-27 mbbl/d.</li><li>OKEA Energy (OKEA NO): 4Q22 update – 4Q22 production in Norway was 19,887 boe/d.</li></ul>

GeoPark (GPRK US)C: Target price of US$31 per share:Two new strong development wells at CPO-5 – Two new development wells, Indico 6 and Indico 7, tested over 11,000 bbl/d gross (in aggregate) with hardly any water (Indico 6: 6,270 bbl/d, Indico 7: 5,245 bbl/d).This would take gross production from the field from ~20 mbbl/d in 4Q22 to 25-27 mbbl/d.OKEA Energy (OKEA NO): 4Q22 update – 4Q22 production in Norway was 19,887 boe/d.

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Cairn Energy&rsquo;s interim report revealed higher contingent resources at SNE of 563mmbbl, but a phased development plan targeting the lower reservoirs initially. Lower capex to first oil is balanced by a lower (and longer) plateau period of 75-125mb/d. Other offshore projects indicate that phase one will have low production rates (of perhaps 80mb/d), while we expect further phases to increase over time. As a result of these changes, and a number of other adjustments throughout our modelling (not least for the commissioning issues seen at Kraken), our contingent valuation remains broadly flat at 195p, but our RENAV increases to 205p (from 200p).

Cairn Energy&rsquo;s interim report revealed higher contingent resources at SNE of 563mmbbl, but a phased development plan targeting the lower reservoirs initially. Lower capex to first oil is balanced by a lower (and longer) plateau period of 75-125mb/d. Other offshore projects indicate that phase one will have low production rates (of perhaps 80mb/d), while we expect further phases to increase over time. As a result of these changes, and a number of other adjustments throughout our modelling (not least for the commissioning issues seen at Kraken), our contingent valuation remains broadly flat at 195p, but our RENAV increases to 205p (from 200p).

We update our valuation to reflect the Druid and SNE North well results and lower long-term oil price assumption. We look forward to the half-year results on 21 August when Cairn plans to update the market on reserves estimates and the development concept for SNE, which will help to firm up potential value for the field. After adjustments and accounting for our lower long-term oil price assumption, the contingent NAV falls to 196p (from 225p/share).

We update our valuation to reflect the Druid and SNE North well results and lower long-term oil price assumption. We look forward to the half-year results on 21 August when Cairn plans to update the market on reserves estimates and the development concept for SNE, which will help to firm up potential value for the field. After adjustments and accounting for our lower long-term oil price assumption, the contingent NAV falls to 196p (from 225p/share).

Exploration setbacks, but shares backed by core

United Kingdom

Capricorn Energy PLC is oil and gas exploration and development company. The Company operates in North West Europe, North Atlantic, Mediterranean, and South Asia.

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Capricorn Energy (CNE LN)

Auctus on Friday - 03/03/2023

Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN) C; Target price of A$0.50 per share: Good well results in Colombia – The RCE-3 well flowed naturally at rates...

Auctus Advisors

Auctus on Friday - 17/02/2023

Positive testing results opens the Montney - Calima has so far obtained very good results from the re-testing of the Calima #2 and Calima #3 wells.

Auctus Advisors

Auctus on Friday - 27/02/2023

Two new development wells, Indico 6 and Indico 7, tested over 11,000 bbl/d gross (in aggregate) with hardly any water (Indico 6: 6,270 bbl/d,...

Auctus Advisors

SNE larger but phased

Cairn Energy’s interim report revealed higher contingent resources at SNE of 563mmbbl, but a phased development plan targeting the lower reservoirs...

Edison Investment Research

Exploration setbacks, but shares backed by core

We update our valuation to reflect the Druid and SNE North well results and lower long-term oil price assumption. We look forward to the half-year...

Edison Investment Research

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