Research from Asian Century Stocks, Asian Century Stocks

Michael Fritzell

Research from Asian Century Stocks

Providing financial journalism in the Asia-Pacific

Asian Century Stocks

Asian Century Stocks is a newsletter providing financial journalism for companies and stocks in the Asia-Pacific. 
The Asian Century Stocks logotype “百” stands for “one hundred” or a “century”. The economic centre of gravity is moving towards Asia. Yet most global investors are missing out.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Jefferies strategist Chris Wood made an interesting comment in his 4Q21 Asia Maxima report. He expressed a bullish view on Singaporean residential property developers, quoting a 40% discount to book and rapidly improving fundamentals. Here is a short report on the sector to figure out whether his bullishness is warranted or not.</p>
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<p>Supply &amp; demand for residential property is not necessarily out of sync. The 2009-2013 period was a bubble and should not be seen as a baseline.</p>
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<p>The retail, office and hospitality segments have suffered over the past two years due to cross-border travel restrictions, working from home during the pandemic and the threat from e-commerce. But several of these factors are one-off in nature.</p>
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<p>I see value in City Developments, given high-quality assets, excellent execution and an upside of almost +60% using reasonable assumptions.</p>
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<p>I’m also bullish on small-cap Bukit Sembawang, which sit on a valuable land bank and has won awards as one of the best property developers in Singapore.</p>
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</ul>

Jefferies strategist Chris Wood made an interesting comment in his 4Q21 Asia Maxima report. He expressed a bullish view on Singaporean residential property developers, quoting a 40% discount to book and rapidly improving fundamentals. Here is a short report on the sector to figure out whether his bullishness is warranted or not.


Supply &amp; demand for residential property is not necessarily out of sync. The 2009-2013 period was a bubble and should not be seen as a baseline.


The retail, office and hospitality segments have suffered over the past two years due to cross-border travel restrictions, working from home during the pandemic and the threat from e-commerce. But several of these factors are one-off in nature.


I see value in City Developments, given high-quality assets, excellent execution and an upside of almost +60% using reasonable assumptions.


I’m also bullish on small-cap Bukit Sembawang, which sit on a valuable land bank and has won awards as one of the best property developers in Singapore.



Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia), SCCM Asia Research

SCCM Asia Research

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

<h2>Singapore</h2><p>SREITs results in a glance (see detailed spreadsheet and calendar attached)</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/237/199/original/image_71648546021635124700450.png?1635124703" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="237199"></figure><h3><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitaland-integrated-commercial-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:105" rel="noopener">Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT SP)</a> 3Q21 Business Updates – Hopeful for a stronger 4Q21</h3><ul><li>3Q21 revenue and NPI increased by 118.9% and 132.2% YoY to S$329m and S$242.6m, respectively, bringing 9M21 gross revenue and NPI to S$974.7m (+108% YoY) and S$714.8m (+122.8% YoY), respectively. CICT’s enlarged portfolio as well as 100% contribution from Raffles City Singapore (RCS) helped to boost 9M21 performance. In 3Q21, CICT granted less than S$2m of rental waivers. 3Q21 DPU was undisclosed</li><li>Overall portfolio occupancy dipped slightly to 94.4% in 3Q21 (vs. 94.9% in 2Q21 and 95.9% in 1Q21). Portfolio WALE (by GRI) stood at 3 years</li><li>Retail: 9M21 shopper traffic inched up 0.9% YoY, while tenants’ sales improved by 1% YoY (retention rate of 82.4%), shaving off from 1H21’s 4.2%/5.3% YoY improvement. Retail occupancy dipped to 96.4% (vs. 97% in 2Q21 and 97.1% in 1Q21). Clarke Quay and Bugis+ were the largest dampeners on the portfolio with occupancies falling 3.5ppts/2.8ppts from 2Q21, respectively, while rental reversions (incoming avg. rents vs outgoing avg. rents) continued to decline, albeit at a slower pace of -3.8% (vs. 1H21: -4.5%). Retail WALE (by GRI) held at 1.9 years</li></ul>

SingaporeSREITs results in a glance (see detailed spreadsheet and calendar attached)Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT SP) 3Q21 Business Updates – Hopeful for a stronger 4Q213Q21 revenue and NPI increased by 118.9% and 132.2% YoY to S$329m and S$242.6m, respectively, bringing 9M21 gross revenue and NPI to S$974.7m (+108% YoY) and S$714.8m (+122.8% YoY), respectively. CICT’s enlarged portfolio as well as 100% contribution from Raffles City Singapore (RCS) helped to boost 9M21 performance. In 3Q21, CICT granted less than S$2m of rental waivers. 3Q21 DPU was undisclosedOverall portfolio occupancy dipped slightly to 94.4% in 3Q21 (vs. 94.9% in 2Q21 and 95.9% in 1Q21). Portfolio WALE (by GRI) stood at 3 yearsRetail: 9M21 shopper traffic inched up 0.9% YoY, while tenants’ sales improved by 1% YoY (retention rate of 82.4%), shaving off from 1H21’s 4.2%/5.3% YoY improvement. Retail occupancy dipped to 96.4% (vs. 97% in 2Q21 and 97.1% in 1Q21). Clarke Quay and Bugis+ were the largest dampeners on the portfolio with occupancies falling 3.5ppts/2.8ppts from 2Q21, respectively, while rental reversions (incoming avg. rents vs outgoing avg. rents) continued to decline, albeit at a slower pace of -3.8% (vs. 1H21: -4.5%). Retail WALE (by GRI) held at 1.9 years

Singapore

Propnex Limited operates as a real estate agency. The Company offers business strategies, consultation, training, marketing support, and technological innovations for real estate sector, as buying, selling, and renting of properties. Propnex serves customers in Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia.

SLB Development Ltd. operates as a property development company. The Company develops industrial, commercial, and retail properties.

CapitaLand Ascendas REIT is an industrial real estate investment trust. The Trust invests in business and science park properties, integrated development, amenities, and retail (IDAR) properties, high-specifications industrial properties and data centers, light industrial and flatted factories, and logistics and distribution centers.

Mapletree Industrial Trust is a Singapore-focused real estate investment trust with a large and diversified portfolio of industrial properties. The Trust invests in a diverse portfolio of industrial properties with the primary objective of achieving an attractive level of return from rental income and for long-term capital growth.

Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust is a Singapore-focused real estate investment trust. The Trust invests on a long-term basis, directly or indirectly, in a diversified portfolio of income-producing real estate used primarily for office and/or retail purposes, whether wholly or partially, as well as real estate-related assets.

Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (MCT SP)

Mapletree Logistics Trust is an Asia-focused logistics real estate investment trust. The Company invests in a diversified portfolio of income-producing real estate which is used for logistics purposes.

City Developments Limited is a property developer and owner. The Company, through its subsidiaries, are principally engaged in the investment of properties and shares, property management, project management and the provision of consultancy services, hospitality-related information technology, and procurement services. City Developments has a global presence.

UOL Group Limited is a property company. The Company has a diversified portfolio of development and investment properties, hotels, and serviced suites. UOL Group, through its subsidiary owns a portfolio of commercial assets and hotels. UOL Group operates in Asia, Oceania, and North America.

Frasers Centrepoint Trust is a retail real estate investment trust focused on growing unitholder value through asset management, financial management and strategic investments.  The trust invests in retail properties in Singapore and overseas.

FLT offers investors an opportunity to invest in logistics and industrial real estate assets strategically located within major logistics and industrial markets of Australia, Germany and the Netherlands.

Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (FLT SP)

Central Pattana Public Company Limited and its subsidiaries develop properties including shopping centers, condominiums, and office, for sale and rental.  The Company's projects include Central Plaza Lardprao, Central Plaza Ram-indra,  Central Plaza Pinklao, Central Festival Center Pattaya, and Central Plaza Ratchada.

Deutsche Wohnen SE operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, focuses on developing and managing residential and commercial properties. Deutsche Wohnen owns and manages residential and nursing facilities for elderly people. Deutsche Wohnen offers property and lease agreement management, ambulant nursing, and assisted living services in Germany.

Fastighets AB Balder owns and manages commercial and residential properties in Sweden.  The Company maintains and rents apartments, offices, shops, banks, hotels and warehouses.  Balder manages the properties through regional offices.

Swire Pacific Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, focuses on real estate, aviation, beverage, industrial, marine services, trading, and industrial businesses. Swire Pacific operates worldwide.

Wharf Real Estate Investment Company Limited provides real estate investment services. The Company develops, invests, and operates residential and commercial properties. Wharf Real Estate Investment operates business in Hong Kong.

China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a park integrated developer. The Company conducts land and real estate development and management, community development, and other services. China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings provides services in China.

China Merchants Shekou Industr (001979 CH)

China Vanke Co., Ltd. operates real estate development businesses.  The Company provides housing renovation, housing loans, real estate brokerage, and other businesses. China Vanke also operates logistics, material supply, and other businesses.

Vinhomes Joint Stock Company offers real estate services. The Company provides sale and leasing of residential complexes and apartments, as well as professional and personalized services, community building activities, and other facilities. Vinhomes serves customers in Vietnam.

The Howard Hughes Corporation develops real estate. The Company manages master planned communities, shopping malls, and mixed-use developments throughout the United States.

Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development Co., Ltd. operates in land development, property management, and infrastructure facilities construction within the Lujiazui Finance and Trade Zone.  The Company also undertakes building and renovation projects.

Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone (600663 CH)

CapitaLand Investment Limited (CLI) is a global real estate investment manager with the aim to scale its FUM and fee-related earnings through its full stack of investment management and operating capabilities. The Company's portfolio of integrated developments, retail, office, lodging and new economy assets are either owned/managed directly or through its fund management platform.

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CapitaLand Investment /Sing (CLI SP)

Singapore Residential Property

Jefferies strategist Chris Wood made an interesting comment in his 4Q21 Asia Maxima report. He expressed a bullish view on Singaporean residential...

Asian Century Stocks

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (25Oct21)

CICT hopeful for a stronger 4Q21; METRO acquires SG, AUS props; 3Q21 home prices rose 1.1% QoQ; Office rents reversed, retail rents fell further in...

SCCM Asia Research

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