APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

CapitaLand Ascendas REIT / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ascendas-real-estate-investment-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39:1" rel="noopener">Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust (AREIT SP)</a> is raising up to US$916m (S$1,234m) to acquire various properties.Overall, the deal scored well on our framework owing to the good track record and momentum but it was dragged down by its large deal size.Our previous coverage:<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/areit-placement-expected-to-be-dpu-accretive-but-the-acquisition-might-take-a-while" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AREIT Placement - Expected to Be DPU Accretive but the Acquisition Might Take a While</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/areit-paying-for-acquisition-with-only-equity-doesn-t-add-up-dpu-to-fall-by-3-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AREIT - Paying for Acquisition with Only Equity Doesn’t Add Up, DPU to Fall by 3-4%</a></li>
</ul>

Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust (AREIT SP) is raising up to US$916m (S$1,234m) to acquire various properties.Overall, the deal scored well on our framework owing to the good track record and momentum but it was dragged down by its large deal size.Our previous coverage:
AREIT Placement - Expected to Be DPU Accretive but the Acquisition Might Take a While
AREIT - Paying for Acquisition with Only Equity Doesn’t Add Up, DPU to Fall by 3-4%


Ascendas REIT Placement - Multiple Acquisitions to Be Made, Starting From US Office Properties

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Another Weak Set Of Metrics: Link REIT (823.HK) [Link REIT] reported negative FY 1H21 bottom-line results of HKD 4.1 bn. While still a loss, this figure represents about 17.2% of losses (HKD 23.9 bn) posted in FY 2H20. Losses in both periods were attributed to negative fair value marks of HKD 7.3 bn and HKD 27.6 bn, respectively. While results on an operating basis were positive, the trend unfortunately remains negative for Link REIT – declining HKD 564 mn (15.1%). The poor operating results were driven by weaker Hong Kong rental income which declined HKD 186 mn (5.4%) HOH; and a HKD 55 mn (9.8%) decline in mainland Chinese property-related revenues;*Worries Abound: Weaker than expected Hong Kong retail operations leading to lower level of rental reversions; and continued negative revaluation of property due to lower rents and/or higher cap rates remain long-term risks; and*Poor Capital Management: On July 26, 2020, Link announced its proposed acquisition of a Grade A office building, The Cabot at 25 Cabot Square at Canary Wharf in London. This transaction makes little sense for Link REIT on a number of levels. Management also reiterated its 2025 target, suggesting that intends to add to the existing "core" portfolio while adding "core-plus" and "value-add" assets, which would include mainland Chinese Tier-1 cities, the United Kingdom, Australia, Singapore and Japan. Link REIT has also completed the 60 mn share buyback. Instead of weighing a buybacks return versus new investment ROI, management views share buybacks as a mechanism to defend its shares against short-selling.

*Another Weak Set Of Metrics: Link REIT (823.HK) [Link REIT] reported negative FY 1H21 bottom-line results of HKD 4.1 bn. While still a loss, this figure represents about 17.2% of losses (HKD 23.9 bn) posted in FY 2H20. Losses in both periods were attributed to negative fair value marks of HKD 7.3 bn and HKD 27.6 bn, respectively. While results on an operating basis were positive, the trend unfortunately remains negative for Link REIT – declining HKD 564 mn (15.1%). The poor operating results were driven by weaker Hong Kong rental income which declined HKD 186 mn (5.4%) HOH; and a HKD 55 mn (9.8%) decline in mainland Chinese property-related revenues;*Worries Abound: Weaker than expected Hong Kong retail operations leading to lower level of rental reversions; and continued negative revaluation of property due to lower rents and/or higher cap rates remain long-term risks; and*Poor Capital Management: On July 26, 2020, Link announced its proposed acquisition of a Grade A office building, The Cabot at 25 Cabot Square at Canary Wharf in London. This transaction makes little sense for Link REIT on a number of levels. Management also reiterated its 2025 target, suggesting that intends to add to the existing "core" portfolio while adding "core-plus" and "value-add" assets, which would include mainland Chinese Tier-1 cities, the United Kingdom, Australia, Singapore and Japan. Link REIT has also completed the 60 mn share buyback. Instead of weighing a buybacks return versus new investment ROI, management views share buybacks as a mechanism to defend its shares against short-selling.

*Much Better Than Expected: Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. (OCBC.SP) [OCBC] posted 3Q20 net profit of SGD 1.0 bn, an SGD 298 mn (40.8%) increase on a linked quarter basis – well ahead of consensus. Two factors pushed the outperformance: 1) a somewhat justifiable SGD 400 mn (53.3%) decline in loss provisions (unlike DBS Group Holdings [DBS.SP]), as OCBC witnessed “negative”growth in net new NPLs; and 2) a 290 bp decline in its tax rate to 13.1%, which was additive to the bottom-line by SGD 36 mn or 3.6%;*Credit Improving In Reality: By our calculation, given the SGD 99 mn in net recoveries, we find that new new NPL growth was actually negative on an annualized basis at 2.3%. While we are ecstatic to see negative growth in net new NPLs on the back of strong net recoveries of previously charged off loans, we continue to believe that credit risk will remain elevated. As such, we find that reserves should be bolstered by SGD 288 mn – 25% of pre-tax results, which is a far cry from where currently DBS is; and*Insurance Weakness: Great Eastern Holdings (GE.SP) [Great Eastern] reported 3Q20 bottom-line results of SGD 287.9 mn, declining SGD 9.6 mn (3.2%) linked quarter. On an operating basis excluding market-related gains, the decline in profits was even more pronounced at SGD 24.6 mn or 9.4% over the period due to new business strain. New Business Embedded Value (NBEV) margins continued their descent to 37.0%  - down 1.1% linked quarter due a weaker Malaysian component. Management’s confidence is low and it anticipates the weaker economic environment to pose continued headwinds, and will reassess the dividend.

*Much Better Than Expected: Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. (OCBC.SP) [OCBC] posted 3Q20 net profit of SGD 1.0 bn, an SGD 298 mn (40.8%) increase on a linked quarter basis – well ahead of consensus. Two factors pushed the outperformance: 1) a somewhat justifiable SGD 400 mn (53.3%) decline in loss provisions (unlike DBS Group Holdings [DBS.SP]), as OCBC witnessed “negative”growth in net new NPLs; and 2) a 290 bp decline in its tax rate to 13.1%, which was additive to the bottom-line by SGD 36 mn or 3.6%;*Credit Improving In Reality: By our calculation, given the SGD 99 mn in net recoveries, we find that new new NPL growth was actually negative on an annualized basis at 2.3%. While we are ecstatic to see negative growth in net new NPLs on the back of strong net recoveries of previously charged off loans, we continue to believe that credit risk will remain elevated. As such, we find that reserves should be bolstered by SGD 288 mn – 25% of pre-tax results, which is a far cry from where currently DBS is; and*Insurance Weakness: Great Eastern Holdings (GE.SP) [Great Eastern] reported 3Q20 bottom-line results of SGD 287.9 mn, declining SGD 9.6 mn (3.2%) linked quarter. On an operating basis excluding market-related gains, the decline in profits was even more pronounced at SGD 24.6 mn or 9.4% over the period due to new business strain. New Business Embedded Value (NBEV) margins continued their descent to 37.0%  - down 1.1% linked quarter due a weaker Malaysian component. Management’s confidence is low and it anticipates the weaker economic environment to pose continued headwinds, and will reassess the dividend.

*Negative Operating Jaws Were A Surprise: DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) [DBS] reported 3Q20 results of SGD 1.3 bn, increasing SGD 50 mn (4.0%) on a linked quarter basis. Results were solely led on a justified SGD 295 mn (34.7%) reduction in loss provisions, which point to DBS’real challenges with negative operating jaws; and*Credit Risk Rising: By our calculation, and despite the net recovery of SGD 24 mn, we find that net new NPLs continue to increase – up SGD 272 mn or 18.9% on an annualized basis. Management too was less sanguine about credit quality on a go forward basis, expecting a re-acceleration of NPL formation in 2021 as COVID-19 government programs are set to expire. We feel that reserves should be shored up in the neighborhood of SGD 1.3 bn – amounting to a full quarter of results – and intimating this quarter was more managed than DBS would have the investment community believe.

*Negative Operating Jaws Were A Surprise: DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) [DBS] reported 3Q20 results of SGD 1.3 bn, increasing SGD 50 mn (4.0%) on a linked quarter basis. Results were solely led on a justified SGD 295 mn (34.7%) reduction in loss provisions, which point to DBS’real challenges with negative operating jaws; and*Credit Risk Rising: By our calculation, and despite the net recovery of SGD 24 mn, we find that net new NPLs continue to increase – up SGD 272 mn or 18.9% on an annualized basis. Management too was less sanguine about credit quality on a go forward basis, expecting a re-acceleration of NPL formation in 2021 as COVID-19 government programs are set to expire. We feel that reserves should be shored up in the neighborhood of SGD 1.3 bn – amounting to a full quarter of results – and intimating this quarter was more managed than DBS would have the investment community believe.      

DBS Group Holdings – Not Trending The Right Way Yet

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Mapletree Logistics Trust / Equity Capital Markets

<div><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mapletree-logistics-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16035:1" rel="noopener">Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT SP)</a> plans to raise around US$341m (S$450m) to part fund the acquisition of stakes in 24 logistics properties in Malaysia, Vietnam and China. </div><div>We have earlier covered four other placements for the REIT since 2017, links below:</div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mapletree-logistics-trust-placement-a-dpu-accretive-deal" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mapletree Logistics Trust Placement: A DPU Accretive Deal</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mlt-placement-little-acretiveness-but-interesting-china-e-commerce-exposure" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MLT Placement - Little Accretion but Interesting China E-Commerce Exposure</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mlt-placement-dpu-accretive-stable-property-income-anchored-by-cwt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MLT Placement - DPU Accretive &amp; Stable Property Income Anchored by CWT</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mapletree-logistics-placement-little-accretion-but-past-deals-have-done-well" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mapletree Logistics Placement - Little Accretion but past Deals Have Done Well</a></li>
</ul></div><div>Most of the past deals have done well. This deal too is expected to be accretive to DPU. However, the share price is near all time-highs.</div>

Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT SP) plans to raise around US$341m (S$450m) to part fund the acquisition of stakes in 24 logistics properties in Malaysia, Vietnam and China. We have earlier covered four other placements for the REIT since 2017, links below:
Mapletree Logistics Trust Placement: A DPU Accretive Deal
MLT Placement - Little Accretion but Interesting China E-Commerce Exposure
MLT Placement - DPU Accretive &amp; Stable Property Income Anchored by CWT
Mapletree Logistics Placement - Little Accretion but past Deals Have Done Well
Most of the past deals have done well. This deal too is expected to be accretive to DPU. However, the share price is near all time-highs.

Mapletree Logistics Placement - Big Deal, Little Accretion but past Deals Have Done Well

Singapore

CapitaLand Ascendas REIT is an industrial real estate investment trust. The Trust invests in business and science park properties, integrated development, amenities, and retail (IDAR) properties, high-specifications industrial properties and data centers, light industrial and flatted factories, and logistics and distribution centers.

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CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (CLAR SP)

Ascendas REIT Placement - Multiple Acquisitions to Be Made, Starting From US Office Properties

This is by far the largest placement AREIT has ever conducted. The REIT will be acquiring multiple properties, starting with two US offices then...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Link REIT – Bread and Butter Melting

LINK REIT: Almost Nothing Is Going Right For Link REIT. Rental Reversion Rates Weakening In Hong Kong; FV Marks Remain Negative; and Capital...

Thomas J. Monaco

Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. – Solid

OVERSEA CHINESE BANKING CORP.: Credit Showing Signs Of Recovery With Negative NPL Growth - Offsetting Weakness In NIMs and Insurance.

Thomas J. Monaco

Mapletree Logistics Placement - Big Deal, Little Accretion but past Deals Have Done Well

Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT SP) plans to raise around S$450m to part fund the acquisition of 24 logistics properties.

Sumeet Singh

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Ascendas REIT Placement - Multiple Acquisitions to Be Made, Starting From US Office Properties

This is by far the largest placement AREIT has ever conducted. The REIT will be acquiring multiple properties, starting with two US offices then...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Link REIT – Bread and Butter Melting

LINK REIT: Almost Nothing Is Going Right For Link REIT. Rental Reversion Rates Weakening In Hong Kong; FV Marks Remain Negative; and Capital...

Thomas J. Monaco

Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. – Solid

OVERSEA CHINESE BANKING CORP.: Credit Showing Signs Of Recovery With Negative NPL Growth - Offsetting Weakness In NIMs and Insurance.

Thomas J. Monaco

DBS Group Holdings – Not Trending The Right Way Yet

DBS GROUP HOLDINGS: Trends Are Poor. Costs Higher, Revenues Lower, and Provision Trend Likely To Be Reversed As We Head Into 2021.

Thomas J. Monaco

Mapletree Logistics Placement - Big Deal, Little Accretion but past Deals Have Done Well

Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT SP) plans to raise around S$450m to part fund the acquisition of 24 logistics properties.

Sumeet Singh