'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>• BEST &amp; WORST •</div><div>
Our best and worst pairing from Friday's announcements is consumer loan leader <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acom-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8897:1" rel="noopener">Acom (8572 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-steel-mfg-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16195:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Steel (5423 JP)</a>. 
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/167/047/original/2020-10-24_12-36-01.png?1603510588" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="167047"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/167/048/original/2020-10-24_12-37-30.png?1603510670" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="167048"></figure></section><div><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></div>
<hr>
<div>DAILY STATS</div>
<hr>
<div>23 Quarterly Results</div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Results Score: 39% Positive / 9% Neutral / 52% Negative</li>
<li>Average Results Score Change: -0.2 points</li>
<li>Average % Change in Revenue: -8.2% Quarter YoY / -5.8% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -0.4ppt</li>
<li>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 22%</li>
</ul></div>
<hr>
<div>31 Annual • 23 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 29% Positive / 16% Neutral / 55% Negative</li>
<li>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 39% Positive / 17% Neutral / 43% Negative</li>
<li>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -3.9 points</li>
</ul></div>
</div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •
Our best and worst pairing from Friday's announcements is consumer loan leader Acom (8572 JP) and Tokyo Steel (5423 JP). 
Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics

DAILY STATS

23 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 39% Positive / 9% Neutral / 52% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -0.2 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -8.2% Quarter YoY / -5.8% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -0.4ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 22%


31 Annual • 23 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 29% Positive / 16% Neutral / 55% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 39% Positive / 17% Neutral / 43% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -3.9 points



🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​23 - Canon MJ, Cawachi, T Steel, Morning*J, Acom

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our weight of the evidence approach leads us to believe the market remains in the early stages of a broad-based advance, meaning a buy-the-dip mentality is warranted. While we want to acknowledge that the potential for a US-China tariff escalation remains a risk for the market, we believe this is likely to be the case for the foreseeable future. In our December International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our positive outlook, including actionable trade ideas in technology, health care and manufacturing.

Our weight of the evidence approach leads us to believe the market remains in the early stages of a broad-based advance, meaning a buy-the-dip mentality is warranted. While we want to acknowledge that the potential for a US-China tariff escalation remains a risk for the market, we believe this is likely to be the case for the foreseeable future. In our December International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our positive outlook, including actionable trade ideas in technology, health care and manufacturing.

Global Equities Headed Up and to the Right: Technology, Health Care Leading

Despite several indexes recently touching new 52+ week highs, broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain near logical resistance, and indicators continue to send mixed signals. As a result we are hesitant to get too bullish or bearish. Instead we want to focus on Sector/Group/industry themes where we bottoming price and RS, or attractive pullback opportunities within established price and RS uptrends.  In this report we highlight such opportunities, within the Technology, Consumer Staples and Services Sectors.

Despite several indexes recently touching new 52+ week highs, broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain near logical resistance, and indicators continue to send mixed signals. As a result we are hesitant to get too bullish or bearish. Instead we want to focus on Sector/Group/industry themes where we bottoming price and RS, or attractive pullback opportunities within established price and RS uptrends.  In this report we highlight such opportunities, within the Technology, Consumer Staples and Services Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Not Too Bullish, Not Too Bearish

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/080/230/original/2019-02-26_16-49-25.png?1551182690" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="80230"></figure>
Source: Japan Analytics
</div>
LARGE CAP RESULTS &amp; REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions announcements covers the Results &amp; Revision Scores for Japan's 785 larger capitalisation companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b.
In the DETAIL section below we look at:- 
<ul>
<li>The 30 top and bottom-ranked companies by Results &amp; Revision Score as well as the top and bottom thirty ranked by change in score over the last quarter and provide brief comments on companies and topics of note.</li>
<li>By comparing Results Scores and Forecast/Revision Scores, we sort companies into'Optimists', 'Pessimists', 'Increasingly Optimistic' and 'Increasingly Pessimistic' categories.</li>
<li>As shown above, the relationship between the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) and our Relative Price Score (RPS) for each company and divide the large-cap universe into four 'quadrants' - 'Contrarian Buy' (Low RRS &amp; Low RPS) , 'Contrarian Sell' (High RRS &amp; High RPS), 'Peak Growth' (High RRS &amp; Low RPS) and 'Ex-Growth/Turnaround'  (Low RRS &amp; High RPS), highlighting the outliers in each quadrant.
<ul>
<li>In the two 'Contrarian' quadrants, the market is aligned with the current earnings momentum of the companies suggesting opportunities exist only for those willing or brave enough to take a contrarian view. </li>
<li>For 'Peak Growth', the market is calling for a downturn in momentum that has yet to be reflected in quarterly earnings. Where the cycle is more prolonged than expected, there are often opportunities for short-term rebounds in what are normally relatively-inexpensive companies.</li>
<li>The 'Ex-Growth' quadrant often consists of former 'Contrarian Sell's where the market is reluctant to acknowledge that the cycle has turned. This quadrant can also contain 'Turnarounds' - formerly 'Contrarian Buys' where the market is correctly anticipating a change in fortunes.   </li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Finally, we provide tables of the top and bottom five ranked companies in each of our 30 Sectors.</li>
</ul>



Source: Japan Analytics

LARGE CAP RESULTS &amp; REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions announcements covers the Results &amp; Revision Scores for Japan's 785 larger capitalisation companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b.
In the DETAIL section below we look at:- 

The 30 top and bottom-ranked companies by Results &amp; Revision Score as well as the top and bottom thirty ranked by change in score over the last quarter and provide brief comments on companies and topics of note.
By comparing Results Scores and Forecast/Revision Scores, we sort companies into'Optimists', 'Pessimists', 'Increasingly Optimistic' and 'Increasingly Pessimistic' categories.
As shown above, the relationship between the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) and our Relative Price Score (RPS) for each company and divide the large-cap universe into four 'quadrants' - 'Contrarian Buy' (Low RRS &amp; Low RPS) , 'Contrarian Sell' (High RRS &amp; High RPS), 'Peak Growth' (High RRS &amp; Low RPS) and 'Ex-Growth/Turnaround'  (Low RRS &amp; High RPS), highlighting the outliers in each quadrant.

In the two 'Contrarian' quadrants, the market is aligned with the current earnings momentum of the companies suggesting opportunities exist only for those willing or brave enough to take a contrarian view. 
For 'Peak Growth', the market is calling for a downturn in momentum that has yet to be reflected in quarterly earnings. Where the cycle is more prolonged than expected, there are often opportunities for short-term rebounds in what are normally relatively-inexpensive companies.
The 'Ex-Growth' quadrant often consists of former 'Contrarian Sell's where the market is reluctant to acknowledge that the cycle has turned. This quadrant can also contain 'Turnarounds' - formerly 'Contrarian Buys' where the market is correctly anticipating a change in fortunes.   


Finally, we provide tables of the top and bottom five ranked companies in each of our 30 Sectors.


🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/​Peak & Ex-Growth

DOMESTIC  DEFENSIVE SECTORS ▲ GLOBAL CYCLICAL SECTORS ▼ -  The Q1 trend shift away from global cyclical sectors accelerated in the second quarter and all of these sectors saw declines in weight over the last three months.SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS - Our most preferred sectors are currently Healthcare, Energy, Other Commercial Products, Utilities and Information Technology and least preferred sectors are Multi-Industry, Metals, Chemicals, Autos, Machinery, Banks and Consumer Services.MARKET OUTLOOK MIXED - With manufacturing sectors comprising 60% of the market and with many domestic sectors now fully-valued, it is hard to see the market making much headway over the rest of the summer.

DOMESTIC  DEFENSIVE SECTORS ▲ GLOBAL CYCLICAL SECTORS ▼ -  The Q1 trend shift away from global cyclical sectors accelerated in the second quarter and all of these sectors saw declines in weight over the last three months.SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS - Our most preferred sectors are currently Healthcare, Energy, Other Commercial Products, Utilities and Information Technology and least preferred sectors are Multi-Industry, Metals, Chemicals, Autos, Machinery, Banks and Consumer Services.MARKET OUTLOOK MIXED - With manufacturing sectors comprising 60% of the market and with many domestic sectors now fully-valued, it is hard to see the market making much headway over the rest of the summer.

Japan : Q2 Sector & Company Performance Review

Japan

Canon Marketing Japan Inc. distributes all Canon products in the domestic market.  The Company sells copying machines, printers, digital cameras, facsimile, scanner, projectors, and calculators.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Canon Marketing Japan (8060 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/23 - Canon MJ, Cawachi, T Steel, Morning*J, Acom

• BEST & WORST • Our best and worst pairing from Friday's announcements is consumer loan leader Acom (8572 JP) and Tokyo Steel (5423 JP).

Campbell Gunn

Global Equities Headed Up and to the Right: Technology, Health Care Leading

Our weight of the evidence approach leads us to believe the market remains in the early stages of a broad-based advance, meaning a buy-the-dip...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Not Too Bullish, Not Too Bearish

Despite several indexes recently touching new 52+ week highs, broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain near logical...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/Peak & Ex-Growth

LARGE CAP RESULTS & REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions...

Campbell Gunn

Japan : Q2 Sector & Company Performance Review

DOMESTIC DEFENSIVE SECTORS ▲ GLOBAL CYCLICAL SECTORS ▼ - The Q1 trend shift away from global cyclical sectors accelerated in the second quarter...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​23 - Canon MJ, Cawachi, T Steel, Morning*J, Acom

• BEST & WORST • Our best and worst pairing from Friday's announcements is consumer loan leader Acom (8572 JP) and Tokyo Steel (5423 JP).

Campbell Gunn

Global Equities Headed Up and to the Right: Technology, Health Care Leading

Our weight of the evidence approach leads us to believe the market remains in the early stages of a broad-based advance, meaning a buy-the-dip...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Not Too Bullish, Not Too Bearish

Despite several indexes recently touching new 52+ week highs, broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain near logical...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/​Peak & Ex-Growth

LARGE CAP RESULTS & REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions...

Campbell Gunn

Japan : Q2 Sector & Company Performance Review

DOMESTIC DEFENSIVE SECTORS ▲ GLOBAL CYCLICAL SECTORS ▼ - The Q1 trend shift away from global cyclical sectors accelerated in the second quarter...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/23 - Canon MJ, Cawachi, T Steel, Morning*J, Acom

🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/Peak & Ex-Growth