Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ricoh-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15359:1" rel="noopener">Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP)</a> announced earnings disappointed, but guidance is above forecast as some Q4 business was pushed back.</li>
<li>The company also announced a buyback. The headline at 7.5% of shares out is big. Reality is lower. </li>
<li>This sets up a somewhat complex dynamic of flows in near space and far space, and relative to peers. But we look at it anyway.</li>
</ul>



Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP) announced earnings disappointed, but guidance is above forecast as some Q4 business was pushed back.
The company also announced a buyback. The headline at 7.5% of shares out is big. Reality is lower. 
This sets up a somewhat complex dynamic of flows in near space and far space, and relative to peers. But we look at it anyway.


Ricoh (7752) Buyback - Big, But Not. But Not Small.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a> on Monday announced a share buyback programme.</li>
<li>It isn't very big. But it bears consideration because of other things going on. </li>
<li>Shareholder structure is of much more importance than many investors appreciate. Here even more so.</li>
</ul>



Canon Inc (7751 JP) on Monday announced a share buyback programme.
It isn't very big. But it bears consideration because of other things going on. 
Shareholder structure is of much more importance than many investors appreciate. Here even more so.


Canon (7751) - Buyback Looks Small But Shareholder Structure Matters

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We look at short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan in April to identify stocks/sectors that have seen the largest changes in each market.</li>
<li>Korea and Taiwan are showing a clear divergence with short notional increasing as the market moves lower, indicative of new shorts being initiated.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd-3388a037-4214-4997-b45d-520518cfdb57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a> has seen the largest short covering as the stock has tumbled in the last couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


We look at short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan in April to identify stocks/sectors that have seen the largest changes in each market.
Korea and Taiwan are showing a clear divergence with short notional increasing as the market moves lower, indicative of new shorts being initiated.

China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) has seen the largest short covering as the stock has tumbled in the last couple of weeks.


Asia Short Interest: Large Moves in April

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikon-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7117:1" rel="noopener">Nikon Corp (7731 JP)</a> today announced a Very Large Buyback. This is the third buyback it has announced since spring 2019. The first was short. The next two big.</li>
<li>The company also announced a new <a href="https://www.nikon.com/about/ir/management/midtermbusiness/pdf/2022/0407e_all.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Medium-Term Management Plan for FY2022-2025</a> today in which they reiterated their existing Shareholder Return Policy of 40+% payout of stable dividends and opportunistic buybacks. </li>
<li>It's a decent div, and the buyback is for 6-7% of shares out, but it could do better. The company is hugely cash- and securities holdings-rich. It should do better.</li>
</ul>



Nikon Corp (7731 JP) today announced a Very Large Buyback. This is the third buyback it has announced since spring 2019. The first was short. The next two big.
The company also announced a new Medium-Term Management Plan for FY2022-2025 today in which they reiterated their existing Shareholder Return Policy of 40+% payout of stable dividends and opportunistic buybacks. 
It's a decent div, and the buyback is for 6-7% of shares out, but it could do better. The company is hugely cash- and securities holdings-rich. It should do better.


BIG Nikon (7731) Buyback - OK But Should Do Better

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The lows have likely been established for this correction, but a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and Nikkei 225 are each testing their respective downtrends. The EURO STOXX 50 is testing resistance in the 4040-4090 range. Germany's DAX is testing major resistance at 14,815-14,950.</li>
<li>It is likely that this initial 2-3 week bounce has run its course; stick with cyclical value and defensives, areas we have been focused on for most of 2022.</li>
</ul>


The lows have likely been established for this correction, but a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows.
Japan's TOPIX and Nikkei 225 are each testing their respective downtrends. The EURO STOXX 50 is testing resistance in the 4040-4090 range. Germany's DAX is testing major resistance at 14,815-14,950.
It is likely that this initial 2-3 week bounce has run its course; stick with cyclical value and defensives, areas we have been focused on for most of 2022.


Sticking With Cyclical Value and Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology

Japan

Canon Inc. is a professional and consumer imaging solutions company and patent-holder of digital imaging technologies. The Company's products include networked multifunction devices, digital and analog copiers, computer peripherals, facsimile machines, image filing systems, camcorders, cameras and lenses, semiconductor, and broadcast and medical equipment.

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Canon Inc (7751 JP)

Ricoh (7752) Buyback - Big, But Not. But Not Small.

Ricoh (7752) yesterday announced disappointing results, bte forecasts, and a big buyback headline with less exciting reality. It sets up a complex...

Travis Lundy

Canon (7751) - Buyback Looks Small But Shareholder Structure Matters

Canon's buyback is "small" but it probably matters more than most think in terms of near-term market structure and performance.

Travis Lundy

Asia Short Interest: Large Moves in April

Short notional in Korea and Taiwan has been increasing as the market has been moving lower. Shorts on China Merchant Bank have been covered in...

Brian Freitas

BIG Nikon (7731) Buyback - OK But Should Do Better

Nikon (7731) today announced a 9.8% buyback. Given prices, it is more like 6-7%, but that is a similar portion of Eligible ADV for a year. But the...

Travis Lundy

Sticking With Cyclical Value and Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology

Sticking With Cyclical Value & Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology. 2-3 week bounce has likely run its course with $TOPIX $Nikkei 225,...

Vermilion Research

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