Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

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The predicament of rising crude production and constrained access to markets is not a new one for Canada. But it may be about to get worse.The recent shutdown and subsequent reduced operations of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25199" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25199:1">TransCanada Corp (TRP CN)</a>'s 590,000 b/d northern section of the Keystone pipeline, a key artery transporting heavy Canadian crude into the US, brought the problem into sharp relief.Canadian producers are poised to raise their output again this year against an already strained pipeline and railroad capacity to transport the barrels to refiners.Calgary-based <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7481" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7481:1">Suncor Energy Inc (SU CN)</a> produced first oil from its Fort Hills oil sands project in Alberta January 27 and said it expects the 194,000 b/d project to reach 90% capacity by the end of this year. The following week, Canadian heavy crude benchmark Western Canadian Select tanked to a discount of more than $30/barrel to the US light sweet grade WTI  (compared with a discount of $10-11 before the shutdown of the Keystone pipeline mid-November).Even as existing crude pipelines into the US run flat-out, Canadian railroad companies are locking horns with the oil producers in the hope of extracting better terms for their contracts. A few pipeline plans over the years aimed at increasing Canadian crude's access to the US and other export markets are dead in the water, while time is running out for those that offer a glimmer of hope but have major environmental hurdles to overcome. That doesn't bode well for Canadian crude producers.

The predicament of rising crude production and constrained access to markets is not a new one for Canada. But it may be about to get worse.The recent shutdown and subsequent reduced operations of TransCanada Corp (TRP CN)'s 590,000 b/d northern section of the Keystone pipeline, a key artery transporting heavy Canadian crude into the US, brought the problem into sharp relief.Canadian producers are poised to raise their output again this year against an already strained pipeline and railroad capacity to transport the barrels to refiners.Calgary-based Suncor Energy Inc (SU CN) produced first oil from its Fort Hills oil sands project in Alberta January 27 and said it expects the 194,000 b/d project to reach 90% capacity by the end of this year. The following week, Canadian heavy crude benchmark Western Canadian Select tanked to a discount of more than $30/barrel to the US light sweet grade WTI  (compared with a discount of $10-11 before the shutdown of the Keystone pipeline mid-November).Even as existing crude pipelines into the US run flat-out, Canadian railroad companies are locking horns with the oil producers in the hope of extracting better terms for their contracts. A few pipeline plans over the years aimed at increasing Canadian crude's access to the US and other export markets are dead in the water, while time is running out for those that offer a glimmer of hope but have major environmental hurdles to overcome. That doesn't bode well for Canadian crude producers.

Rising Canadian Crude Production: Too Much of a Good Thing?

Canada

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited operates a transnational rail network. The Company transports automotive, energy, chemicals, plastics, forestry, industrial, and temperature protected products. Canadian Pacific Kansas City serves customers in North America.

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Canadian Pacific Kansas City L (CP CN)

Rising Canadian Crude Production: Too Much of a Good Thing?

The predicament of rising crude production and constrained access to markets is not a new one for Canada. But it may be about to get worse.The...

Vandana Hari

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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