Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We are beginning to see rotations back into risk-on areas of the market, a bullish sign for global equities. This only adds to our constructive outlook; we are bullish and we expect higher prices in the weeks and months ahead.

We are beginning to see rotations back into risk-on areas of the market, a bullish sign for global equities. This only adds to our constructive outlook; we are bullish and we expect higher prices in the weeks and months ahead. 

Global Equity Strategy: Buy Energy & Financials; EM Improving

As long as market dynamics remain largely positive and the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US) indexes are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we believe a constructive outlook is warranted. To reiterate, support levels to watch include $90 on ACWI-US, $53 on ACWX-US, and $52 on EEM-US. Open the attached file to read our complete International Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.

As long as market dynamics remain largely positive and the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US) indexes are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we believe a constructive outlook is warranted. To reiterate, support levels to watch include $90 on ACWI-US, $53 on ACWX-US, and $52 on EEM-US. Open the attached file to read our complete International Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Pullback; Overweight Value

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

As we highlighted in last week’s Int’l Compass, the weight of the evidence suggests commodities are in the early stages of a new secular bull market. Global Materials remains a favorite Sector overweight and we believe outperformance is likely to continue considering the Sector’s long-term bullish RS reversal. Additionally, we are upgrading equal-weighted Energy to overweight due to bullish price and RS inflections -- add exposure with a focus on small- and mid-caps.

As we highlighted in last week’s Int’l Compass, the weight of the evidence suggests commodities are in the early stages of a new secular bull market. Global Materials remains a favorite Sector overweight and we believe outperformance is likely to continue considering the Sector’s long-term bullish RS reversal. Additionally, we are upgrading equal-weighted Energy to overweight due to bullish price and RS inflections -- add exposure with a focus on small- and mid-caps.

Global Commodity-Related Equity Sectors In Secular Bull

Global energy equity and oil & gas macro analyst

Anish Kapadia

Akap Energy

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Now that the U.S. has imposed tougher sanctions on Venezuela, we examine the potential impact on the oil market and the companies that will impacted, some positively and some negatively. The sanctions should have a positive impact on the oil price and in particular producers of heavier crude (e.g. Canadian/Colombian/Mexican producers) but a negative impact on the more complex refiners that use heavy crude on the US Gulf Coast.

Now that the U.S. has imposed tougher sanctions on Venezuela, we examine the potential impact on the oil market and the companies that will impacted, some positively and some negatively. The sanctions should have a positive impact on the oil price and in particular producers of heavier crude (e.g. Canadian/Colombian/Mexican producers) but a negative impact on the more complex refiners that use heavy crude on the US Gulf Coast. 

Venezuelan Sanctions: What Is the Crude Market Impact and Which Stocks Are Affected

The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights.

The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights. 

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

Canada

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. acquires, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, crude oil, and related products.  The Company operates in the Canadian provinces of Alberta, northeastern British Columbia and Saskatchewan. Canadian Natural also operates in areas which have access for exploration activities and where pipeline systems already exist.

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Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ CN)

Global Equity Strategy: Buy Energy & Financials; EM Improving

We are seeing rotations back into risk-on areas of the market (Energy & Financials), a bullish sign for global equities. We are bullish and we...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Pullback; Overweight Value

As long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US) indexes are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we...

Vermilion Research

Venezuelan Sanctions: What Is the Crude Market Impact and Which Stocks Are Affected

Now that the U.S. has imposed tougher sanctions on Venezuela, we examine the potential impact on the oil market and the companies that will...

Anish Kapadia

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

The MSCI ACWI and S&P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global Equity Strategy: Buy Energy & Financials; EM Improving

We are seeing rotations back into risk-on areas of the market (Energy & Financials), a bullish sign for global equities. We are bullish and we...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Pullback; Overweight Value

As long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US) indexes are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we...

Vermilion Research

Global Commodity-Related Equity Sectors In Secular Bull

We believe commodities are in the early stages of a new secular bull market. Global Materials & Energy remain our favorite Sector overweights - add...

Vermilion Research

Venezuelan Sanctions: What Is the Crude Market Impact and Which Stocks Are Affected

Now that the U.S. has imposed tougher sanctions on Venezuela, we examine the potential impact on the oil market and the companies that will...

Anish Kapadia

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

The MSCI ACWI and S&P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a...

Vermilion Research