Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Alibaba logistics arm CaiNiao's revenue growth slowed in the June quarter</li>
<li>Our main takeaway is that Chinese X-border eComm continues to slow</li>
<li>We believe all of the large X-border eComm platforms may be affected</li>
</ul>


Alibaba logistics arm CaiNiao's revenue growth slowed in the June quarter
Our main takeaway is that Chinese X-border eComm continues to slow
We believe all of the large X-border eComm platforms may be affected


CaiNiao Q1FY Results: Most Interesting Read-Through Is Dramatic Slowdown in X-Border Activity

Equity Capital Markets

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>After CaiNiao halted IPO in late March, company reported lower Q4 margins</li>
<li>What drove Q4 margin deterioration, retention payments or weaker X-border?</li>
<li>With IPO off the table, supporting AliExpress becomes CaiNiao's main role</li>
</ul>


After CaiNiao halted IPO in late March, company reported lower Q4 margins
What drove Q4 margin deterioration, retention payments or weaker X-border?
With IPO off the table, supporting AliExpress becomes CaiNiao's main role


CaiNiao Q4FY Results: After IPO Withdrawn, Margins Fell | Retention Payments, or Something Else?

<ul>
<li>We compare H1 revenue growth and Adjusted EBITDA margins of six companies</li>
<li>We then add needed context to aid understanding of each company's results</li>
<li>We think it's time to look for bargains in express; focus on SF Holding, Yunda</li>
</ul>


We compare H1 revenue growth and Adjusted EBITDA margins of six companies
We then add needed context to aid understanding of each company's results
We think it's time to look for bargains in express; focus on SF Holding, Yunda


Chinese Express H124 Earnings | Worst of Price Competition Over | Look for Bargains | BUY SF, Yunda

<ul>
<li>Draconian 'de minimis' reform proposal in the US has bipartisan support</li>
<li>In Q224 results, rampant signs of a Chinese X-border retail slowdown</li>
<li>Other news: plastics laws, new Amazon threat, SHEIN sustainability initiatives</li>
</ul>


Draconian 'de minimis' reform proposal in the US has bipartisan support
In Q224 results, rampant signs of a Chinese X-border retail slowdown
Other news: plastics laws, new Amazon threat, SHEIN sustainability initiatives


SHEIN & Temu Updates: 'De Minimis' Threat | Chinese X-Border Slowdown | Plastics! | AMZN Project?

<ul>
<li>For certain companies now seeking IPOs, X-border volumes may serve as demand proxy</li>
<li>In 2023, Chinese X-border volume growth has accelerated, up +55% Y/Y through September</li>
<li>In developing X-border express market, lower ASPs are actually a good thing, in our view</li>
</ul>


For certain companies now seeking IPOs, X-border volumes may serve as demand proxy
In 2023, Chinese X-border volume growth has accelerated, up +55% Y/Y through September
In developing X-border express market, lower ASPs are actually a good thing, in our view


Introducing Monthly Tracking of Chinese X-Border Express Parcel Data | YTD Volume up +55%, ASPs -25%

Hong Kong

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network Ltd. operates as an investment company. The Company provides equity investments, investment management, and other services. Cainiao Smart Logistics Network is located in Hong Kong.

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network (1437124D HK)

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Cainiao Smart Logistics Network (1437124D HK)

CaiNiao Q1FY Results: Most Interesting Read-Through Is Dramatic Slowdown in X-Border Activity

Given slower June quarter revenue growth at Alibaba's logistics arm CaiNiao and at the segment containing AliExpress, it's hard not to conclude...

Tracking Traffic

CaiNiao Q4FY Results: After IPO Withdrawn, Margins Fell | Retention Payments, or Something Else?

Alibaba's logistics subsidiary CaiNiao reported an EBITA loss in its Q4 results, the first in FY24. Was it the result of retention payments after...

Tracking Traffic

Chinese Express H124 Earnings | Worst of Price Competition Over | Look for Bargains | BUY SF, Yunda

In this insight we summarize the six listed Chinese express companies H124 results, adding context where necessary. We believe SF Holding and Yunda...

Tracking Traffic

SHEIN & Temu Updates: 'De Minimis' Threat | Chinese X-Border Slowdown | Plastics! | AMZN Project?

In this roundup of news related to China's direct-to-consumer retail platforms we cover: a new de minimis reform bill in the US, Q2's X-border...

Tracking Traffic

Introducing Monthly Tracking of Chinese X-Border Express Parcel Data | YTD Volume up +55%, ASPs -25%

Chinese X-border express parcel volume growth has accelerated dramatically in 2023, and unit pricing has fallen sharply. In this note we dissect...

Tracking Traffic

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