Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

<ul>
<li>We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.</li>
<li>Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.</li>
<li>Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)</li>
</ul>


We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.
Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)


Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In Q1FY25, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cipla-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3918:1" rel="noopener">Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN)</a> posted 7% YoY revenue growth to INR66.9B. Despite surging R&amp;D expenditure, EBITDA increased 26% YoY to INR17.2B, leading to 154bps margin expansion to 25.6%.</li>
<li>Record high quarterly revenue in the U.S. market, double-digit revenue growth in India branded prescription business, and continued strong momentum in South Africa drove overall performance.</li>
<li>Cipla is well-positioned for mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth through FY27. Sitting on a robust cash balance of INR90B, Cipla is eyeing on M&amp;A. Valuation still looks reasonable.</li>
</ul>


In Q1FY25, Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN) posted 7% YoY revenue growth to INR66.9B. Despite surging R&amp;D expenditure, EBITDA increased 26% YoY to INR17.2B, leading to 154bps margin expansion to 25.6%.
Record high quarterly revenue in the U.S. market, double-digit revenue growth in India branded prescription business, and continued strong momentum in South Africa drove overall performance.
Cipla is well-positioned for mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth through FY27. Sitting on a robust cash balance of INR90B, Cipla is eyeing on M&amp;A. Valuation still looks reasonable.


Cipla (CIPLA IN): Starts FY25 On Firm Note; EBITDA Margin Ahead of Guidance Range

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our long-term bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. With that said, we believe a 1-3-month pullback has likely begun.</li>
<li>Supports to watch are at $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41-42 on MSCI EM (EEM-US), and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is violating its 20-day MA, Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking below 4884, and Japan's TOPIX appears to be staging a false breakout at the 2800-2815 level</li>
</ul>


Our long-term bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. With that said, we believe a 1-3-month pullback has likely begun.
Supports to watch are at $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41-42 on MSCI EM (EEM-US), and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
The S&amp;P 500 is violating its 20-day MA, Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking below 4884, and Japan's TOPIX appears to be staging a false breakout at the 2800-2815 level


Pullback Underway; Getting Defensive; Long-Term RS Bottoms for Defensives Is a Reason for Caution

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Paytm and Axis Bank collaborate to enhance POS solutions, integrating advanced card payment devices.</li>
<li>Gland Pharma and Zydus Lifesciences secure key USFDA approvals for new medications.</li>
<li>Tata Consumer announces a Rs 3,000 crore rights issue to bolster financial position and growth.</li>
</ul>


Paytm and Axis Bank collaborate to enhance POS solutions, integrating advanced card payment devices.
Gland Pharma and Zydus Lifesciences secure key USFDA approvals for new medications.
Tata Consumer announces a Rs 3,000 crore rights issue to bolster financial position and growth.


# 33 India Insight: Paytm Collaborates with Axis, Gland Pharma Approval, Tata Consumer Right Issue

India

Cadila Healthcare Ltd. manufactures, and markets healthcare solutions ranging from formulations, active pharmaceutical ingredients, vaccines, diagnostics, health and dietetic foods, animal healthcare to cosmeceuticals.  The Company's products are available in tablets, capsules, injections, liquids, dry syrups, powders, granules, and ointments.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN)

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

Cipla (CIPLA IN): Starts FY25 On Firm Note; EBITDA Margin Ahead of Guidance Range

In Q1FY25, Cipla posted 7% YoY revenue growth to INR66.9B. EBITDA increased 26% YoY to INR17.2B, leading to 154bps margin expansion to 25.6%, ahead...

Tina Banerjee

Pullback Underway; Getting Defensive; Long-Term RS Bottoms for Defensives Is a Reason for Caution

Pullback Underway $ACWI $SPX; Getting Defensive; Long-Term RS Bottoms for Defensive Sectors is a Reason for Caution. Buys in Health Care,...

Vermilion Research

# 33 India Insight: Paytm Collaborates with Axis, Gland Pharma Approval, Tata Consumer Right Issue

Paytm and Axis Bank team up for improved POS solutions, Gland Pharma and Zydus Lifesciences receive USFDA nods, Tata Consumer plans Rs 3,000 crore...

Sudarshan Bhandari

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

Cipla (CIPLA IN): Starts FY25 On Firm Note; EBITDA Margin Ahead of Guidance Range

In Q1FY25, Cipla posted 7% YoY revenue growth to INR66.9B. EBITDA increased 26% YoY to INR17.2B, leading to 154bps margin expansion to 25.6%, ahead...

Tina Banerjee

Pullback Underway; Getting Defensive; Long-Term RS Bottoms for Defensives Is a Reason for Caution

Pullback Underway $ACWI $SPX; Getting Defensive; Long-Term RS Bottoms for Defensive Sectors is a Reason for Caution. Buys in Health Care,...

Vermilion Research

# 33 India Insight: Paytm Collaborates with Axis, Gland Pharma Approval, Tata Consumer Right Issue

​Paytm and Axis Bank team up for improved POS solutions, Gland Pharma and Zydus Lifesciences receive USFDA nods, Tata Consumer plans Rs 3,000 crore...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Paytm and Axis Bank team up for improved POS solutions, Gland Pharma and Zydus Lifesciences receive USFDA nods, Tata Consumer plans Rs 3,000 crore...