Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The open interest of the HSCEI 2024 dividend futures is less than half that of the HSCEI 2023 and HSCEI 2022 open interest at the same time of the year.</li>
<li>Market volatility and the fallout of the losses faced by Korean investors (and the scrutiny of Korean ELS-issuing banks) are among the primary reasons for the low open interest.</li>
<li>Our fair value for the HSCEI 2024 dividend futures is higher than the current market but there is a lot of sensitivity to bank dividends and special dividends.</li>
</ul>


The open interest of the HSCEI 2024 dividend futures is less than half that of the HSCEI 2023 and HSCEI 2022 open interest at the same time of the year.
Market volatility and the fallout of the losses faced by Korean investors (and the scrutiny of Korean ELS-issuing banks) are among the primary reasons for the low open interest.
Our fair value for the HSCEI 2024 dividend futures is higher than the current market but there is a lot of sensitivity to bank dividends and special dividends.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: Shrinking OI; Fair Value Estimates Show Upside

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The effects of SHEIN's and Temu's growth on US retail are already well known</li>
<li>But recent data points show the companies impacting other industries, too</li>
<li>Through their dramatic growth the two companies are gaining influence in US </li>
</ul>


The effects of SHEIN's and Temu's growth on US retail are already well known
But recent data points show the companies impacting other industries, too
Through their dramatic growth the two companies are gaining influence in US 


Dramatic Growth of SHEIN & Temu Having Noticeable Impact On Segments Outside Of US Retail

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> has legally completed the transaction to sell 75% of Tokopedia to TikTok, paving the way for higher growth and improving profitability, without the need to subsidise growth. </li>
<li>The company will continue to benefit from the new Tokopedia's core GMV growth without having to provide funding, with the benefit of a larger total addressable market. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo</a> has achieved positive adjusted EBITDA in 4Q2023 beating expectations but financials should improve further in 2024 although resources will be focused on growing on-demand services, and especially food delivery.</li>
</ul>



GoTo (GOTO IJ) has legally completed the transaction to sell 75% of Tokopedia to TikTok, paving the way for higher growth and improving profitability, without the need to subsidise growth. 
The company will continue to benefit from the new Tokopedia's core GMV growth without having to provide funding, with the benefit of a larger total addressable market. 

GoTo has achieved positive adjusted EBITDA in 4Q2023 beating expectations but financials should improve further in 2024 although resources will be focused on growing on-demand services, and especially food delivery.


Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarizes the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.</li>
<li>
 Macro data points: China's GDP growth, industrial production, and retail sales data</li>
<li>
 Companies mentioned:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-douyin-information-service-co-ltd-bytedance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27936:1" rel="noopener">ByteDance (1439927D CH)</a>
</li>
</ul>


The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarizes the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.

 Macro data points: China's GDP growth, industrial production, and retail sales data

 Companies mentioned:Baidu (9888 HK), Tencent (700 HK), ByteDance (1439927D CH)



GEMWeekly (19 Jan 2024): China Macro; Baidu, Tencent, ByteDance

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Past week saw insights of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prodia-widyahusada" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23663:1" rel="noopener">Prodia (PRDA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab Holdings (GRAB US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata (EXCL IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pyridam-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12900:1" rel="noopener">Pyridam Farma (PYFA IJ)</a>.</li>
<li>The was also an insight on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thonburi-healthcare-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24386:1" rel="noopener">Thonburi Healthcare Group (THG TB)</a> and a sector piece looking at the beleaguered Vietnamese Real Estate sector. </li>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.</li>
</ul>


The Past week saw insights of Prodia (PRDA IJ), Grab Holdings (GRAB US), XL Axiata (EXCL IJ), Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ), Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ), and Pyridam Farma (PYFA IJ).
The was also an insight on Thonburi Healthcare Group (THG TB) and a sector piece looking at the beleaguered Vietnamese Real Estate sector. 
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Prodia's Recovery, Grab in 2024, and Kalbe Farma Primed

China

Beijing Douyin Information Service Co. Ltd. provides online information and contents. The Company develops and operates short video platform, original short video community, news platform, and other related products. Beijing Douyin Information Service offers services worldwide.

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ByteDance (1439927D CH)

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Shrinking OI; Fair Value Estimates Show Upside

We see the HSCEI 2024 div futures slightly underpriced with the potential for more upside. There are risks to the trade, mainly from the banks and...

Brian Freitas

Dramatic Growth of SHEIN & Temu Having Noticeable Impact On Segments Outside Of US Retail

Recent data points show SHEIN and Temu are beginning to have noticeable impacts on US industries other than retail, including domestic express...

Tracking Traffic

GoTo (GOTO IJ) - Completing the Circle

GoTo (GOTO IJ) has legally completed the transaction to sell 75% of Tokopedia to TikTok, paving the way for higher growth and improving...

Angus Mackintosh

GEMWeekly (19 Jan 2024): China Macro; Baidu, Tencent, ByteDance

The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarizes the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global...

Wium Malan, CFA

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Prodia's Recovery, Grab in 2024, and Kalbe Farma Primed

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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