ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia</a> may see a stabilisation of the declines in GTV that it has experienced over the last 2Qs, with some of the platform's new initiatives gaining traction.</li>
<li>The closure of TikTok Shop should be positive at the margin for Tokopedia but it has also rolled back its platform fee, which has had a positive impact on growth.</li>
<li>New initiatives include GoRide Transit, GoCorp, GoTo PLUS, and the GoPay app, with the latter seeing strong take-up. 3Q2023 results should reveal more details on initiatives. All-time low seems unjustified.</li>
</ul>



GoTo Gojek Tokopedia may see a stabilisation of the declines in GTV that it has experienced over the last 2Qs, with some of the platform's new initiatives gaining traction.
The closure of TikTok Shop should be positive at the margin for Tokopedia but it has also rolled back its platform fee, which has had a positive impact on growth.
New initiatives include GoRide Transit, GoCorp, GoTo PLUS, and the GoPay app, with the latter seeing strong take-up. 3Q2023 results should reveal more details on initiatives. All-time low seems unjustified.


GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - Building Positive Resonance with New Initiatives

<ul>
<li>The news that the Indonesian Government will target social commerce in Indonesia, as well as placing additional scrutiny on imported products sold through digital channels will impact TikTok hard.</li>
<li>TikTok Shop will not be allowed to operate in Indonesia in its present guise given the requirement to split social media and e-commerce, which will benefit peers Shopee and Tokopedia.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd</a> through Shopee will be the biggest beneficiary given it will require less promotional spending in Indonesia and it has also re-entered the Indian market with <em>FreeFire. </em>
</li>
</ul>


The news that the Indonesian Government will target social commerce in Indonesia, as well as placing additional scrutiny on imported products sold through digital channels will impact TikTok hard.
TikTok Shop will not be allowed to operate in Indonesia in its present guise given the requirement to split social media and e-commerce, which will benefit peers Shopee and Tokopedia.

Sea Ltd through Shopee will be the biggest beneficiary given it will require less promotional spending in Indonesia and it has also re-entered the Indian market with FreeFire. 



Global Digital Niaga Tbk PT / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/global-digital-niaga-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34881:1" rel="noopener">Global Digital Niaga (BliBli) </a>continues to stand out from peers given a differentiated omnichannel model plus a greater portion of 1P but 3P sales are growing driven by Tiket.com.</li>
<li>TPV growth surpassed revenue growth in 1H2023 driven by Tiket.com but take rates and gross margins improved, as the company cut back on promotional spending and improved cost efficiencies. </li>
<li>BliBli booked organic growth with more users and a significant pick-up in the average order value, partially driven by Tiket.com. </li>
</ul>



Global Digital Niaga (BliBli) continues to stand out from peers given a differentiated omnichannel model plus a greater portion of 1P but 3P sales are growing driven by Tiket.com.
TPV growth surpassed revenue growth in 1H2023 driven by Tiket.com but take rates and gross margins improved, as the company cut back on promotional spending and improved cost efficiencies. 
BliBli booked organic growth with more users and a significant pick-up in the average order value, partially driven by Tiket.com. 


Global Digital Niaga (BELI IJ) - BliBli Ploughing a More Profitable Furrow

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Aquila Acquisition Corporation / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aquila-acquisition-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35435:1" rel="noopener">Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK)</a> agreed to a De-SPAC transaction with ZG Group (formerly Zhaogang.com), the world’s largest digital platform for third-party steel transactions.</li>
<li>ZG has a questionable business model, struggling to generate profits or underlying FCF. This dynamic suggests that ZG has not established a sustainable competitive advantage. </li>
<li>The negotiated value of ZG in the De-SPAC transaction is HK$10,004 million (US$1,277 million). Our valuation analysis suggests that this negotiated value is unrealistic.</li>
</ul>



Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK) agreed to a De-SPAC transaction with ZG Group (formerly Zhaogang.com), the world’s largest digital platform for third-party steel transactions.
ZG has a questionable business model, struggling to generate profits or underlying FCF. This dynamic suggests that ZG has not established a sustainable competitive advantage. 
The negotiated value of ZG in the De-SPAC transaction is HK$10,004 million (US$1,277 million). Our valuation analysis suggests that this negotiated value is unrealistic.


Aquila Acquisition Corp (7836 HK): ZG Group’s Punchy Valuation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea (SE US)</a> 2Q2023 results reflected some underlying slowdown but beneath the surface, the company's core marketplace business saw accelerated growth, as it stepped up investment, and margins improved concurrently. </li>
<li>The company invested in live streaming, bringing on 1m influencers in 2Q2023, likely stemming the impact of TikTok. The gaming business showed meaningful signs of recovery QoQ in 2Q2023.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea (SE US)</a> grew its cash reserves in 2Q2023 to US$7.7bn signifying the success of its business model. The short-term sell-off looks overdone possibly triggered by talk of quarterly losses.</li>
</ul>



Sea (SE US) 2Q2023 results reflected some underlying slowdown but beneath the surface, the company's core marketplace business saw accelerated growth, as it stepped up investment, and margins improved concurrently. 
The company invested in live streaming, bringing on 1m influencers in 2Q2023, likely stemming the impact of TikTok. The gaming business showed meaningful signs of recovery QoQ in 2Q2023.

Sea (SE US) grew its cash reserves in 2Q2023 to US$7.7bn signifying the success of its business model. The short-term sell-off looks overdone possibly triggered by talk of quarterly losses.


Sea (SE US) - Turning Up the Investment Dial

Indonesia

PT Matahari Department Store Tbk engages in the retail business for several types of products such as clothes, accessories, bags, shoes, cosmetics, household appliances, and management consulting services.

PT Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk operates department stores in Indonesia which sell items such as clothes, accessories, bags, shoes, cosmetics, and daily needs. Its department stores are known as Ramayana, Robinson, and Cahaya.

PT Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk operates department stores and specialty stores selling a broad range of goods including clothing, toys, food, and other merchandise.

PT Multipolar Tbk imports, trades, distributes, retails, and services computers and related products. The Company provides computer equipment rental, informatics engineering, and management services. Multipolar, through its subsidiaries, also provides share administration services.

PT Trikomsel Oke Tbk operates in the retail telecommunication business.  The Company operates retail stores in cities throughout Indonesia that offer a wide range of branded cellular phones.

PT ACE Hardware Indonesia Tbk retails tools, home improvement products, lawn and garden supplies, plumbing, furniture, sporting goods, and pet supplies.

PT Tunas Ridean Tbk and its subsidiaries operate automobile dealerships that sell new and used motor vehicles, spare parts and accessories as well as provide after-sales services.  Through its subsidiary, PT Tunas Financindo Corporation, the Company also provides operating lease and consumer financing services.

PT Golden Retailindo Tbk operates department stores.  The Company retails men's, women's and children's clothing, shoes, cosmetics and fragrances, watches, and other products.

PT Indomobil Sukses Internasional Tbk assembles, and distributes automobiles, buses, trucks, motorcycles, and their related parts. The Company provides automotive maintenance, financing, and rental services.  Indomobil also trades used cars.

PT Mitra Pinasthika Mustika Tbk is an automotive company which provides distribution & retail for Honda motorcycles, manufacturing and distribution of auto parts such as lubricant oil, auto services such as car rental and auto-related financial services such as consumer financing and insurance.

Nanjing Xinjiekou Department Store Co. Ltd. operates department stores in Nanjing, Jiangsu.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops real estate and manufactures pharmaceuticals.

Nanjing Xinjiekou Department S (600682 CH)

V-Mart Retail Limited owns, operates, and franchises a chain of family lifestyle stores in India. The Company operates medium sized hypermarket format retail stores that sell clothes, accessories, and footwear for men, women, and kids; cosmetics, luggage, toys, and games; and food, non-food, and staple items.

Dashang Group Co., Ltd. owns and operates department stores in the northeast of China.  The Company also provides entertainment and food services.

Rainbow Department Store Co., Ltd. operates chain department store.  The Company operates retail department stores and franchises shopping malls.

Chengdu Hongqi Chain Company Limited operates convenience stores chain. The Company's main products are food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco, and other daily necessities.

Hyundai Department Store Co., Ltd. operates department stores under the name of Hyundai Department over nationwide.  The Company also produces home shopping programs for cable channels and sells merchandise through home shopping programs.

Wuhan Department Store Group Co., Ltd. owns and operates department stores. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also invests in real estate development, property management, and food services.

Wuhan Department Store Group Co Ltd. (000501 CH)

Hangzhou Jiebai Group Co., Ltd. operates department stores, invests in import and export trading, operates hotels, and provides advertising services.

Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co. Ltd. retails diversified products. The Company sells apparel, jewelry, cosmetics, sports products, home appliances, handicrafts, photographic equipment, household goods, and other goods through its department stores. Beijing Cuiwei Tower also provides online sales services.

Kintetsu Department Store Co., Ltd. operates department stores mainly in Osaka, Nara, Kyoto, and other Kansai prefectures. The Company sells clothing, foods, as well as other household items. Kintetsu Department Store also operates restaurants.

Bukalapak.com PT Tbk provides e-discretionary services. The Company offers range of electronics, food, shoes, apparel, watches, bags, cosmetics products, and other accessories. Bukalapak.com serves customers in Indonesia.

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Bukalapak.com PT Tbk (BUKA IJ)

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - Building Positive Resonance with New Initiatives

GoTo's new initiatives include GoRide Transit, GoCorp, GoTo PLUS, and the GoPay app, the latter seeing strong take-up. 3Q2023 results should see...

Angus Mackintosh

Sea Ltd (SE US) - Glass Half Full Again?

Sea Ltd through Shopee will be the biggest beneficiary from TikTok Shop's demise in Indonesia as it will require less promotional spending, with...

Angus Mackintosh

Global Digital Niaga (BELI IJ) - BliBli Ploughing a More Profitable Furrow

Global Digital Niaga (BliBli) continues to standout from peers given a differentiated omnichannel model plus a greater portion of 1P but 3P sales...

Angus Mackintosh

Aquila Acquisition Corp (7836 HK): ZG Group’s Punchy Valuation

ZG has a questionable business model, struggling to generate profits or underlying FCF. Our valuation analysis suggests that ZG's negotiated value...

Arun George

Sea (SE US) - Turning Up the Investment Dial

Sea Ltd 2Q2023 reflected an underlying slowdown but beneath the surface, the company's core marketplace business saw accelerated growth, as it...

Angus Mackintosh

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