Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

In this note, we discuss the currencies that can perform well even if, following the sharp depreciation over the past two months, the US dollar becomes rangebound, taking away the impetus for EM currencies to appreciate on aggregate.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

In this note, we discuss the currencies that can perform well even if, following the sharp depreciation over the past two months, the US dollar becomes rangebound, taking away the impetus for EM currencies to appreciate on aggregate.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: EM Currencies to Target in the Late Recovery Phase

The US dollar has weakened since the end of March, leaving it flat from the start of the year. If the dollar moves sideways for the time being, as we expect, then it should lead to a carry trade environment. We identify the best EM currencies for such an environment.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

The US dollar has weakened since the end of March, leaving it flat from the start of the year. If the dollar moves sideways for the time being, as we expect, then it should lead to a carry trade environment. We identify the best EM currencies for such an environment.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Which Currencies to Target in a Carry Trade Environment?

We recommend staying away from the lira despite the high carry and attractive valuations as it is being weighed down by the risk of the central bank easing too early, a high current account deficit, low international reserves, and high short-term foreign debt.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

We recommend staying away from the lira despite the high carry and attractive valuations as it is being weighed down by the risk of the central bank easing too early, a high current account deficit, low international reserves, and high short-term foreign debt.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Avoid the Lira as Turkey Remains Mired in a Crisis

In this note, we show that EM FX and USD have converged to their long-term trends in REER terms, indicating that they are close to fair valuations. However, there is considerable differentiation within EM, providing attractive relative-value opportunities.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

In this note, we show that EM FX and USD have converged to their long-term trends in REER terms, indicating that they are close to fair valuations. However, there is considerable differentiation within EM, providing attractive relative-value opportunities.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: EM FX Is Fair in REER Terms but Differentiation Abounds

In this note, we go over the currencies that have outperformed and underperformed in the recent bout of the rally for EM currencies along with the reasoning behind their performances and their outlooks.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

In this note, we go over the currencies that have outperformed and underperformed in the recent bout of the rally for EM currencies along with the reasoning behind their performances and their outlooks.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Winners and Losers in the EM Turnaround

Brazil

The Brazilian real is the official currency of the Federative Republic of Brazil.  

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FX Dashboard: EM Currencies to Target in the Late Recovery Phase

In this note, we discuss the currencies that can perform well even if the US dollar becomes rangebound going forward, taking away the impetus for...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Which Currencies to Target in a Carry Trade Environment?

If the dollar moves sideways for the time being, as we expect, then it should lead to a carry trade environment. We identify the best EM currencies...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Avoid the Lira as Turkey Remains Mired in a Crisis

We recommend staying away from the lira despite the high carry and attractive valuations as it is being weighed down by the risk of the central...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: EM FX Is Fair in REER Terms but Differentiation Abounds

We show that USD and EM FX on aggregate are close to fair valuations in REER terms. However, there is considerable differentiation within EM,...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Winners and Losers in the EM Turnaround

We go over the currencies that have outperformed and underperformed in the recent bout of the rally for EM currencies along with the reasoning...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)