Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>The Chilean peso (CLP) has begun to recover after being one of the worst-performing EM currencies over the past 6 months.</li>
<li>I expect CLP to continue to outperform as the central bank is likely to stay aggressive with inflation expectations continuing to rise. Moreover, the presidential election polls have turned market-friendly.</li>
<li>I will be looking for an opportunity to exit from my recommendation to buy CLP against the South African rand, which has worked well.</li>
</ul>


The Chilean peso (CLP) has begun to recover after being one of the worst-performing EM currencies over the past 6 months.
I expect CLP to continue to outperform as the central bank is likely to stay aggressive with inflation expectations continuing to rise. Moreover, the presidential election polls have turned market-friendly.
I will be looking for an opportunity to exit from my recommendation to buy CLP against the South African rand, which has worked well.


Chilean Peso’s Recovery to Continue but With High Volatility

Between July and October, Asian currencies underperformed against the rest of EM. In this note, I address the question: Is the period of underperformance for Asian currencies now behind? With the economic recovery back on track as coronavirus cases drop amid high levels of vaccinations, further monetary easing no longer in the cards, and FX interventions slowing, I expect Asian currencies on aggregate to trade broadly in line with the rest of EM in the near term but not outperform. From a strategy standpoint, I would opportunistically target specific currencies that have underperformed, such as the Thai baht.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which I seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

Between July and October, Asian currencies underperformed against the rest of EM. In this note, I address the question: Is the period of underperformance for Asian currencies now behind? With the economic recovery back on track as coronavirus cases drop amid high levels of vaccinations, further monetary easing no longer in the cards, and FX interventions slowing, I expect Asian currencies on aggregate to trade broadly in line with the rest of EM in the near term but not outperform. From a strategy standpoint, I would opportunistically target specific currencies that have underperformed, such as the Thai baht.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which I seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

Is the Period of Underperformance for Asian Currencies Over?

A month ago, I recommended hedging broad EM currency exposure with the euro. In this note, I first evaluate how well the hedge worked and then address the question of whether to continue to hold the hedge or not. I demonstrate that the hedge has been very effective based on the hedged returns and I also recommend continuing to hold on to the hedge as risks remain on the horizon.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which I seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

A month ago, I recommended hedging broad EM currency exposure with the euro. In this note, I first evaluate how well the hedge worked and then address the question of whether to continue to hold the hedge or not. I demonstrate that the hedge has been very effective based on the hedged returns and I also recommend continuing to hold on to the hedge as risks remain on the horizon.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which I seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

How Effective Has the Euro Hedge Been for EM FX?

After strengthening through early October, the US dollar has turned trendless. I evaluate the change in performance of EM currencies when the dollar was at a peak versus now. Specifically, I go over the regional and country divergences to identify the outperformers and underperformers. I also highlight the currencies where I see the most value.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which I seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

After strengthening through early October, the US dollar has turned trendless. I evaluate the change in performance of EM currencies when the dollar was at a peak versus now. Specifically, I go over the regional and country divergences to identify the outperformers and underperformers. I also highlight the currencies where I see the most value.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which I seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Updating EM FX Winners and Losers

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Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

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Technical Analysis

We are finding some interesting synergy between a stronger USD/TRY bleeding into EM FX that would align with our bearish EEM relative triangle and physical resistance at the 53 trendline barrier.This is an undercurrent not apparent in the DXY or USD weakness in Asia (risk-on).USD/BRL macro bullish flat may need more time but is setting up for a macro USD breakout higher. USD/ZAR bull triangle also taking shape.EEM relative chart due to break lower vs SPX and must see varying degrees of USD strength that will stems from BRL and ZAR sensitivity.

We are finding some interesting synergy between a stronger USD/TRY bleeding into EM FX that would align with our bearish EEM relative triangle and physical resistance at the 53 trendline barrier.This is an undercurrent not apparent in the DXY or USD weakness in Asia (risk-on).USD/BRL macro bullish flat may need more time but is setting up for a macro USD breakout higher. USD/ZAR bull triangle also taking shape.EEM relative chart due to break lower vs SPX and must see varying degrees of USD strength that will stems from BRL and ZAR sensitivity.

Brazil

The Brazilian real is the official currency of the Federative Republic of Brazil.  

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BRL (USDBRL CURNCY)

Chilean Peso’s Recovery to Continue but With High Volatility

I would be looking for an opportunity to exit from my recommendation to buy Chilean peso vs South African rand as I expect the currency to continue...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Is the Period of Underperformance for Asian Currencies Over?

After underperforming between July and October, I expect Asian currencies on aggregate to perform broadly in line with the rest of EM in the near...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

How Effective Has the Euro Hedge Been for EM FX?

In this note, I first evaluate how well has the euro hedge for EM FX that I recommended a month ago worked and then address the question of whether...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Updating EM FX Winners and Losers

As the US dollar turns trendless, I go over the regional and country divergences to identify the outperformers and underperformers in EM. I also...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

TRY Bleed into EEM

We are finding some interesting synergy between a stronger USD/TRY bleeding into EM FX that would align with our bearish EEM relative triangle and...

Thomas Schroeder

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)