Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the price action over the past month as a bear market bounce in the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>Each index appears to be forming a bearish flag pattern. Until the S&amp;P 500, QQQ, and IWM can break above their YTD downtrends, we remain bearish.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that this bear market is being fueled by the rising U.S. dollar (DXY), rising 10-yr Treasury yield, and the move higher in WTI crude oil.</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the price action over the past month as a bear market bounce in the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
Each index appears to be forming a bearish flag pattern. Until the S&amp;P 500, QQQ, and IWM can break above their YTD downtrends, we remain bearish.
We continue to believe that this bear market is being fueled by the rising U.S. dollar (DXY), rising 10-yr Treasury yield, and the move higher in WTI crude oil.


U.S. Indexes Form Bear Flag Patterns Within Downtrends; Opportunities Within Health Care

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>2021 saw a significant jump in RNA based trials. Large sequencing projects and the success of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines should drive the growth of the global RNA therapeutics market. </li>
<li>Our analysis suggests that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moderna-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28744:1" rel="noopener">Moderna Inc (MRNA US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vertex-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4864:1" rel="noopener">Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US),</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/incyte-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20576:1" rel="noopener">Incyte Corp (INCY US), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alnylam-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2191:1" rel="noopener">Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isis-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7017:1" rel="noopener">Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS US)</a> lead in RNA therapy related innovations.</li>
<li>R&amp;D collaboration, licensing deals, strategic investments and buyouts between RNA specialists and big pharma will increase as sitting on the sidelines might no longer be an option.</li>
</ul>


2021 saw a significant jump in RNA based trials. Large sequencing projects and the success of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines should drive the growth of the global RNA therapeutics market. 
Our analysis suggests that Moderna Inc (MRNA US) , Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US), Incyte Corp (INCY US), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS US) lead in RNA therapy related innovations.
R&amp;D collaboration, licensing deals, strategic investments and buyouts between RNA specialists and big pharma will increase as sitting on the sidelines might no longer be an option.


Data Mining Technical Publications to Rank the Innovators in RNA Therapeutics

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eisai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21001:1" rel="noopener">Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP)</a> has been granted priority review by the FDA for its second Alzheimer’s disease drug candidate, lecanemab. Approval is expected in Q1 2023.</li>
<li>Lecanemab could become the first anti-amyloid antibody to obtain full approval for Alzheimer's disease in the U.S. Eisai is aiming for submission of lecanemab in Japan and EU this fiscal.   </li>
<li>Anticancer agent Lenvima is the largest selling drug of Eisai. Revenue from Lenvima increased 44% in FY22. The drug has taken top share in hepatocellular carcinoma market.</li>
</ul>



Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) has been granted priority review by the FDA for its second Alzheimer’s disease drug candidate, lecanemab. Approval is expected in Q1 2023.
Lecanemab could become the first anti-amyloid antibody to obtain full approval for Alzheimer's disease in the U.S. Eisai is aiming for submission of lecanemab in Japan and EU this fiscal.   
Anticancer agent Lenvima is the largest selling drug of Eisai. Revenue from Lenvima increased 44% in FY22. The drug has taken top share in hepatocellular carcinoma market.


Eisai Co (4523 JP): Trying Another Luck for Alzheimer’s Disease; Strengthening Presence in Oncology

<ul>
<li>A bear market bounce is underway after the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) found support at their respective downtrend channels, a possibility we discussed last week.</li>
<li>Still, until the S&amp;P 500, QQQ, and IWM can break above their various downtrends, we remain bearish, and believe investors should be using rallies to reduce overall exposure.</li>
<li>This 1-week rally has the NDX(QQQ) testing resistance at its falling wedge pattern; a break above $297 would likely mean this bear market bounce has another 2-4 weeks of upside.</li>
</ul>


A bear market bounce is underway after the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) found support at their respective downtrend channels, a possibility we discussed last week.
Still, until the S&amp;P 500, QQQ, and IWM can break above their various downtrends, we remain bearish, and believe investors should be using rallies to reduce overall exposure.
This 1-week rally has the NDX(QQQ) testing resistance at its falling wedge pattern; a break above $297 would likely mean this bear market bounce has another 2-4 weeks of upside.


Signs of Disinflation?; Commodities Deteriorating; Another Bear Market Bounce; Pharma/Biotech Buys

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lepu-biopharma-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33231:1" rel="noopener">Lepu Biopharma (2157 HK)</a> has filed NDA for its lead drug candidate pucotenlimab (HX008) for two indications in China, having a combined estimated market opportunity of RMB8 billion by 2030.</li>
<li>Overcrowded PD-1 mAb drugs market in China, with 10 marketed drugs, may limit the growth potential of pucotenlimab. However, pucotenlimab has better efficacy than existing drugs.</li>
<li>Lepu’s other core assets are also progressing and the company has sufficient cash to fund its R&amp;D and commercialization initiatives.</li>
</ul>



Lepu Biopharma (2157 HK) has filed NDA for its lead drug candidate pucotenlimab (HX008) for two indications in China, having a combined estimated market opportunity of RMB8 billion by 2030.
Overcrowded PD-1 mAb drugs market in China, with 10 marketed drugs, may limit the growth potential of pucotenlimab. However, pucotenlimab has better efficacy than existing drugs.
Lepu’s other core assets are also progressing and the company has sufficient cash to fund its R&amp;D and commercialization initiatives.


Lepu Biopharma (2157 HK): Lead Candidate Marching Toward Commercialization; Pipeline Is Progressing

United States

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company is a global biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, licenses, manufactures, markets, and sells pharmaceutical and nutritional products. Bristol-Myers Squibb products and experimental therapies address cancer, heart disease, HIV/AIDS, diabetes, rheumatoid arthritis, hepatitis, organ transplant  rejection, and psychiatric disorders.

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Bristol Myers Squibb Co (BMY US)

U.S. Indexes Form Bear Flag Patterns Within Downtrends; Opportunities Within Health Care

We continue to view the price action over the past month as a bear market bounce in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), as each...

Vermilion Research

Data Mining Technical Publications to Rank the Innovators in RNA Therapeutics

Specialists lead the RNA intellectual property ecosystem but may still need big pharma to bring new treatments to market making the space ripe for...

Pyari Menon

Eisai Co (4523 JP): Trying Another Luck for Alzheimer’s Disease; Strengthening Presence in Oncology

Eisai is expected to receive FDA approval for its second Alzheimer’s disease drug, lecanemab in Q1 2023. The company is also aiming for submission...

Tina Banerjee

Signs of Disinflation?; Commodities Deteriorating; Another Bear Market Bounce; Pharma/Biotech Buys

A bear market bounce is underway after the SPX, QQQ, and IWM found support at their respective downtrend channels. Until these indexes can break...

Vermilion Research

Lepu Biopharma (2157 HK): Lead Candidate Marching Toward Commercialization; Pipeline Is Progressing

Lepu is preparing for commercialization of pucotenlimab for two indications in China, after approval. The indications targeted by Lepu’s core drug...

Tina Banerjee

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