Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18</li>
<li>Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. </li>
<li>So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18
Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. 
So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Over a third of the way through the review period of the June rebalance, we see one potential index change with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a> in deletion zone.</li>
<li>There are a bunch of stocks that could be added to the index as a replacement and price changes over the rest of the review period are important.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade over 1x ADV and over 7x of delivery volume on the index changes, so there will be decent impact on the stocks.</li>
</ul>


Over a third of the way through the review period of the June rebalance, we see one potential index change with Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) in deletion zone.
There are a bunch of stocks that could be added to the index as a replacement and price changes over the rest of the review period are important.
Passive trackers will need to trade over 1x ADV and over 7x of delivery volume on the index changes, so there will be decent impact on the stocks.


SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Likely Wipro Deletion Opens an Index Spot

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jio-financial-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40042:1" rel="noopener">Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN)</a> started trading on 21 August following its demerger from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:198:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Industries (RIL IN)</a>. The stock was locked limit down on its first four trading days.</li>
<li>Passive <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> trackers hold <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jio-financial-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40042:1" rel="noopener">Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN)</a> stock and will need to sell over the next few days.</li>
<li>We estimate passive trackers will need to sell around 188m shares (US$487m) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jio-financial-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40042:1" rel="noopener">Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN)</a> next week and the stock could head lower in the short term.</li>
</ul>



Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) started trading on 21 August following its demerger from Reliance Industries (RIL IN). The stock was locked limit down on its first four trading days.
Passive NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) and S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) trackers hold Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) stock and will need to sell over the next few days.
We estimate passive trackers will need to sell around 188m shares (US$487m) of Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) next week and the stock could head lower in the short term.


Jio Financial (JIOFIN IN): Upcoming Passive Selling & Timing

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) is looking to raise around US$400m in its India IPO. </li>
<li>It is the largest depository in India in terms of number of issuers, number of active instruments, market share in demat value of settlement volume and value of assets.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) is looking to raise around US$400m in its India IPO. 
It is the largest depository in India in terms of number of issuers, number of active instruments, market share in demat value of settlement volume and value of assets.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


NSDL Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Margins Could Drag

<ul>
<li>National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) is looking to raise around US$400m in its India IPO. </li>
<li>It is the largest depository in India in terms of number of issuers, number of active instruments, market share in demat value of settlement volume and value of assets.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) is looking to raise around US$400m in its India IPO. 
It is the largest depository in India in terms of number of issuers, number of active instruments, market share in demat value of settlement volume and value of assets.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


NSDL Pre-IPO - The Positives - Dominant Position, Strong Revenue Growth

India

Bombay Stock Exchange Limited provides market for trading in equity, debt instruments, derivatives, and mutual funds. The Company offers services including risk management, clearing, settlement, market data services, and education. Bombay Stock Exchange serves customers in India. ... More

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE IN)

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Upgrading Europe to Overweight EURO $STOXX 50 $FEZ; Supports Holding on MSCI $ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM. Latest 4-6% pullback remains healthy...

Vermilion Research

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Likely Wipro Deletion Opens an Index Spot

Wipro is a potential deletion from the SENSEX in June. Adani Enterprises is in pole position, just ahead of Coal India. Passives need to trade over...

Brian Freitas

Jio Financial (JIOFIN IN): Upcoming Passive Selling & Timing

After trading limit down for 4 days, Jio Financial finally traded off the limit on Friday. We estimate passive trackers will need to sell 187.63m...

Brian Freitas

NSDL Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Margins Could Drag

National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) is looking to raise around US$400m in its India IPO. In this note we talk about the not-so-positives...

Sumeet Singh

NSDL Pre-IPO - The Positives - Dominant Position, Strong Revenue Growth

National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) is looking to raise around US$400m in its India IPO. In this note, we talk about the positive aspects...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)